Accuracy of VJ Timeline and MSC - For CR/IR1 I-130 filers only

[N-o-l-a 7,167]

* Only For Those Approved or at or Beyond their VJ Estimate Please*

With our very rough VJ range coming up (January 10-19), I noticed quite a few earlier filers who seem far outside of their range and I'm wondering if the whole field office process is just really messing up estimates and if they are much less accurate than the ones for CSC and VSC.

So where are you in this process and how accurate has the new MSC estimated time been for you?

[Ryan H 3,812]

Moved from Process & Procedures to Progress Reports.

[Darnell 8,478]

Ya, I claim the field office processing is throwing off the curve.

[speedwell 224]

Well, it's not the only thing that's throwing off the curve, is it? If there are 100 filers in a range of dates, for example, and 20 of them are approved within one month, then on the end of that month the algorithm will show that people who filed within those dates should expect to be approved in a month... isn't that so? If the remaining 80 filers aren't touched for another four months, then the algorithm isn't valid for any filer until the final results are in. Admittedly this is an extreme outlier thought-experiment, and I don't know exactly how the expected dates are calculated, but you can't trust any calculation based on averages until you take a representative sampling, and "the earliest approved 20 percent" (for example) is hardly a representative sample.

Edited January 2, 2013 by speedwell

[abezyo 35]

My timeline says October 23 - November 1....and im at the Atlanta field office. You do the math

[Ms Hogan 295]

I don't think there's enough info to go by many of the estimates right now because the Missouri office is either adjudicating them there or sending them off to local offices so it's inconsistent no matter what. Some cases, like mine, stay there. Some cases get sent out. Mine was estimated by VJ timelines to be coming up around January 10th - 19th or something like that. But it was done Dec 11th.

My advice, as hard as it is, is to just keep being patient. Plan on waiting as long as the 5 month process which is more "normal" and then be pleasantly surprised (or shocked like I was) if it happens sooner.

[N-o-l-a 7,167]

My advice, as hard as it is, is to just keep being patient. Plan on waiting as long as the 5 month process which is more "normal" and then be pleasantly surprised (or shocked like I was) if it happens sooner.

Filers from abroad aren't suppose to take 5 months though! It has been 55 days for us so far and filers from within America were approved faster. I am seriously thinking of moving back before him just to see some sunshine before I crack up. It is sort of a last resort, but I suppose my daughter also really needs some playmates. Living abroad has been such a nightmare for her but she is also so attached to her "far" that I'm afraid she will freak out if he doesn't come back with us.

I hate this whole thing, I really do.

[NikLR 13,227]

At least you're on the process to come back. I think once the NBC got involved all the old rules and understandings went out the window. Local offices are just mucking it all up too.

[N-o-l-a 7,167]

At least you're on the process to come back. I think once the NBC got involved all the old rules and understandings went out the window. Local offices are just mucking it all up too.

Yes, they certainly are. I think it must be very hard to be sent to a field office that doesn't seem to be approving anyone.

Now we are are in our estimated time January 9 to the 16th and nothing yet.

[NikLR 13,227]

Mine was before Xmas. Obviously that hasn't happened. Denver keeps pushing their posted times back too. Used to take them 3 months to do an AOS, now its 6.

[bsd058 296]

Problem is that probability is dependent on the assumption that all (with the general assumption that some may be outliers) data points in the set are governed by the same distribution. When applications are dispersed, the resulting multiple distributions are going to be different from each other. You can combine them into a single distribution (if the smaller data sets are large enough) which would resemble normal curve, but the overall mean will not match each and every different distribution represented by the field offices' activities. Since all of the field offices are different, they will all have their own mean approval time.

[NikLR 13,227]

Yep. It's why I was hopeful when the vj timeline said a date range but also realistic that it would likely happen in March or April instead. Hopefully again.

[The Mean Lady 604]

I think the problem here is the data used to create the VJ timeline.

It seems like it's only going based on approval data.

So it's going to show a short approval time.

So, say we have these 10 cases:

1- approved after 60 days

2- approved after 45 days

3- approved after 71 days

4- still waiting, been 114 days since noa

5- still waiting, been 99 days

6- approved after 55 days

7- still waiting, been 97 days

8- still waiting, been 123 days

9- still waiting, been 110 days

10- still waiting, been 103 days

So, if the timeline is only calculating approvals, it will say that i should have my approval in approx 58 days.

But if we take into consideration all of the people waiting, then it should take approx 88 days. Big difference.

I don't know if that's really the case, but it sure as hell seems like it if only (complete guess) like 20-30% of people have ACTUALLY been approved from like sept/oct

Problem is that probability is dependent on the assumption that all (with the general assumption that some may be outliers) data points in the set are governed by the same distribution. When applications are dispersed, the resulting multiple distributions are going to be different from each other. You can combine them into a single distribution (if the smaller data sets are large enough) which would resemble normal curve, but the overall mean will not match each and every different distribution represented by the field offices' activities. Since all of the field offices are different, they will all have their own mean approval time.

Based on what you're saying here, is that what is creating the time line, based on what i'm saying above?

That perhaps we are given a range of 58-88days based on only approvals and all pending applications as the higher estimate?

If that's the case, then sucks that people are complaining, but it's pretty accurate, then.

Edited January 9, 2013 by KDH

[ca_poppy 1]

Filers from abroad aren't suppose to take 5 months though! It has been 55 days for us so far and filers from within America were approved faster. I am seriously thinking of moving back before him just to see some sunshine before I crack up. It is sort of a last resort, but I suppose my daughter also really needs some playmates. Living abroad has been such a nightmare for her but she is also so attached to her "far" that I'm afraid she will freak out if he doesn't come back with us.

I hate this whole thing, I really do.

The "auto-expedite" for filers abroad through the Calfornia Service Center was really hit-or-miss to begin with. We should have been routed there, we weren't, ended up at VSC, and waited 6+ months for our NOA2. It's not an easy process for anyone, whether you wait months or years.

[N-o-l-a 7,167]

As the less lucky filers start getting approvals it will even out, I think. Mine has already been push from the start of January to mid-January.

There is probably some office out there, like Atlanta, that is basically like "Screw HQ for this extra workload...we'll just let it sit for 6 months and that'll show them for giving us more to do." So, I suppose that kind of variable just can't be excluded.

The "auto-expedite" for filers abroad through the Calfornia Service Center was really hit-or-miss to begin with. We should have been routed there, we weren't, ended up at VSC, and waited 6+ months for our NOA2. It's not an easy process for anyone, whether you wait months or years.

That makes me feel a little better, I am trying to endure, I really am. Either way, I am going home in May. I was really hoping to make my cousin's wedding in the USVI at the end of April, but alas if it isn't meant to be, then it isn't.

I had never really looked into it and just assumed we could DCF if I changed my mind about living in Denmark, then I read about the expedite and I was like "that's awesome, we'll be out of here in a couple of months", but no such luck. I think it is hard to get yourself down from the expectation of it being quick when it begins to draw on. I am working on it, though.

On the bright side, I get to work on my Danish.