GOP routed by reality

[Penny Lane 8,159]

Editor's note: James Carville is a CNN contributor and professor at Tulane University and Rebecca Buckwalter-Poza is a student at Yale Law School. They co-authored "40 More Years: How Democrats Will Rule the Next Generation." Buckwalter-Poza served as deputy national press secretary of the Democratic National Committee during the 2008 election.

(CNN) -- In 2009, we wrote a book, "40 More Years: How Democrats Will Rule the Next Generation." Building on Ruy Teixeira and John Judis' 2002 tour de force "The Emerging Democratic Majority" predicting the 2008 election, we argued that America's diversifying and increasingly liberal youth voters would secure a lasting Democratic majority.

Our collaboration seemed appropriate then and is only more so now. On one half of the byline, you have James Carville, 68-year-old white man from Louisiana and professor at Tulane University. On the other side, you've got a 26-year-old second-generation Latina with a fiancée. Voters who look like James are on their way out; voters like Rebecca are our future.

A few reviewers missed the point of our focus on demographics. Others, primarily young, entitled, progressive men, critiqued us for not recommending that Democrats focus on appealing to young, entitled, progressive men. To this, we plead guilty. Our book was about demographic diversity and the future of the Democratic Party.

After the midterm elections in 2010, we were mocked viciously. Our thesis was laughable, Republicans hooted, ignoring the book's careful caveat that midterm election turnout differs substantially from that of presidential elections.

We would like to direct these critics to the Epistle of Jude, 1:10: "Yet these men speak abusively against whatever they do not understand; and what things they do understand by instinct, like unreasoning animals—these are the very things that destroy them."

Tuesday night proved our 2009 selves could not have been more right. "Mid-20th century, white men made up half of the electorate," we wrote in 2009. "In 2008, white men made up only 36% of the electorate ... and their vote share is dropping by a percentage point a year."

Our only error was in slightly underestimating the rate at which white men's vote share is shrinking. White voters were 74% of voters in 2008; they were 72% this year. White men comprised just 34% of the electorate on Tuesday.

In 2009, we also commented on the Republicans' reliance on the far right and evangelical voters: "The shrinking Christian right leaves a void in the Republicans' collection of base groups—and they can't look to any growing groups to replace those votes."

Mitt Romney outperformed Sen. John McCain, the 2008 GOP presidential candidate, by 5 points with both white voters overall (59%) and white men (62%). He also bested McCain's margin among Republicans, winning 93% of self-identified Republicans as compared to McCain's 90%, and white evangelical voters, 79% compared with McCain's 73%. Romney lost by relying on a tapped-out, ever-shrinking group of voters.

By way of contrast, Latinos now make up a greater share of the electorate than they did four years ago: 10% of all voters. Obama won 71% of Latinos, reflecting an increase in support of 4%. Similarly, the proportion of the electorate identifying as Asian increased from 2% to 3%, and Obama's support among Asian voters rose 11 points, from 62% to 73%.

There's an entire chapter in "40 More Years" on the importance of youth voters. Four years ago, 18% of the electorate was between 18 and 29. Now, youth are 19% of voters. We highlighted a critical trend within the youth vote: "Back in 1972, almost nine in 10 youth voters (87%) were white. By 2004, only 62% of youth said they were white." This year, about 58% of voters 18-29 identified as white; 42.1% of youth self-reported as African-American, Latino, or otherwise nonwhite.

We also predicted the implosion of Republicans' culture war strategy. Our conclusion was that "[w]hat Bush started in 2000 was a two-election trick that had met its natural and timely death by 2008." Our critics tried to answer our claim by citing the success of culture-war tactics in 2004 and their state-level effects in 2008. We ignored them.

As we said, "The consequence of Republicans' lingering preoccupation with the culture war is that it has led them to become a party of ridiculous positions." Republicans would "have to be certifiable," our sage selves circa 2009 warned, to ever try a culture war strategy again.

We could not be more delighted that Maine, Maryland and Washington became the first states in the country to pass same-sex marriage by popular vote on Tuesday. What we're downright thrilled about, however, is the fact that Mitt Romney got fewer votes than "traditional" marriage in every one of those states.

The Republicans did their damnedest to use the specter of homosexual marital bliss to incite their base voters to vote for Mitt Romney. In the past, that has worked. This time, the best they could do with millions of dollars and overt hate mongering—their favorite weapons—was mobilize a conservative minority that voted for "traditional marriage" but rejected Romney.

Some analyses have tried to make 2012 about single women or educated white women or some other narrow slice of the electorate. They're thinking small. The big picture is this: Democrats are continuing to win big with the demographic groups that are growing; Republicans are still struggling to increase support with shrinking base voter groups.

Republicans made critical, unforced errors in 2008 and 2012. Our present hope is that Republicans continue to mock rather than read "40 More Years," and that Democrats take heed. It's not that we like saying we told you so. It's just that we wrote an entire book telling you so.

http://www.cnn.com/2012/11/09/opinion/carville-buckwalter-poza-election/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

[Teddy B 17,252]

In 2009, we also commented on the Republicans' reliance on the far right and evangelical voters: "The shrinking Christian right leaves a void in the Republicans' collection of base groups—and they can't look to any growing groups to replace those votes."

As we said, "The consequence of Republicans' lingering preoccupation with the culture war is that it has led them to become a party of ridiculous positions." Republicans would "have to be certifiable," our sage selves circa 2009 warned, to ever try a culture war strategy again.

Nothing to see here, move a long folks.

[Penny Lane 8,159]

Nothing to see here, move a long folks.

Pretty spot on.

[justashooter 430]

alexis de tocqueville remarked just a few years after the founding of the Republic of the United States that it would stand only until the moment when the people discover that they can vote in those that will give them the most benefit. this didn't happen when America was a "melting pot", only after it became a "tossed salad". the lack of national identity those living in USA but not born here embody has resulted in the subrogation of rule of law, and will only serve to turn America into just another $hit-hole just like the one they left to come here.

my plan is to float above the scum and cling to my guns and my bible. cold dead hands will be common before you know it, one way or another. you need to watch "children of men" to see the future of America. it's gonna get ugly. i hope it does soon enuf that i'm still around to join in the turkey shoot.

"But one also finds in the human heart a depraved taste for equality, which impels the weak to want to bring the strong down to their level, and which reduces men to preferring equality in servitude to inequality in freedom"

Edited November 12, 2012 by justashooter

[Penny Lane 8,159]

alexis de tocqueville remarked just a few years after the founding of the Republic of the United States that it would stand only until the moment when the people discover that they can vote in those that will give them the most benefit. this didn't happen when America was a "melting pot", only after it became a "tossed salad". the lack of national identity those living in USA but not born here embody has resulted in the subrogation of rule of law, and will only serve to turn America into just another $hit-hole just like the one they left to come here.

my plan is to float above the scum and cling to my guns and my bible. cold dead hands will be common before you know it, one way or another. you need to watch "children of men" to see the future of America. it's gonna get ugly. i hope it does soon enuf that i'm still around to join in the turkey shoot.

Again, your attitude represents the problem. People from other countries coming to America to contribute to society and make a home for themselves and their family should not be something you're afraid of, rather something you embrace.

[The Nature Boy 4,224]

Again, your attitude represents the problem. People from other countries coming to America to contribute to society and make a home for themselves and their family should not be something you're afraid of, rather something you embrace.

Your right as long as the do it legally, you will never hear a peep from any of us.....Unless of course they start letting in Muslims, Buddhist and such

[Penny Lane 8,159]

Your right as long as the do it legally, you will never hear a peep from any of us.....Unless of course they start letting in Muslims, Buddhist and such

Those buddhists definitely need to be watched.

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

alexis de tocqueville remarked just a few years after the founding of the Republic of the United States that it would stand only until the moment when the people discover that they can vote in those that will give them the most benefit.

No he didn't.

[justashooter 430]

Those buddhists definitely need to be watched.

not me. i'm a daoist (philosophy). i don't need a pantheon of gods to keep an eye on my behaviour. (tian xia, huang di yuan)

sadly, the un-acculturated masses that have come to America recently are not generally so well self actualised.

people have called me "racist" many times. they don't know that i'm part jewish, part American indian, have been married to a native chinese, have nearly married a black, and a hispanic (continental). all they have ever really heard me say is that i am a culture snob, and that i don't like people who do not respect the rule of law, and don't want them causing chaos in my country. there are already enuf dysfunctional American born people. there is no point in importing more.

IMHO, the most dysfunctional people are generally religious fanatics of one sort or another. they are invertebrates, in a cultural sense. they need strong, dominating structure around them in order to refrain from acting out one against another in violence, and are intensely threatened when a vertebrate stands among them, demonstrating self control without external framework. it enrages them that their own inadequacy is so demonstrated, and they act out in violence and intolerance. dominican catholics were the penultimate example of the type 600 years ago. what religion embodies this behaviour in the present time?

No he didn't.

you need to read it again, friend.

Edited November 12, 2012 by justashooter

[Obama 2012 1,714]

It's all about demographics, sex, and orientation. Yup, the racists control America. Good job Democratic party for sticking to your roots!

Good Job indeed! The party of the KKK trying to prove they love everyone know while stabbing each and every one of them in the back a the same time.

Past rulers of the world would be proud, and shedding a tear for the treacherous ways you have brought people under your wing.

It will continue as sheep need guidance and someone to show them the way, as they slowly march down that path to hell that is paved with alleged good intentions. Every leader with ill intention in history though eventually fvcks up and shows their true colors. When that day comes though, it will be interesting to see where the Democratic party has led their people to and when revolution strikes, it might just be too late and the US Domestic Security infrastructure (which has grown exponentially under President Obama) will squash them sheep like the bugs the Democratic party already thinks they are.

[Penny Lane 8,159]

not me. i'm a daoist (philosophy). i don't need a pantheon of gods to keep an eye on my behaviour. (tian xia, huang di yuan)

sadly, the un-acculturated masses that have come to America recently are not generally so well self actualised.

people have called me "racist" many times. they don't know that i'm part jewish, part American indian, have been married to a native chinese, have nearly married a black, and a hispanic (continental). all they have ever really heard me say is that i am a culture snob, and that i don't like people who do not respect the rule of law, and don't want them causing chaos in my country. there are already enuf dysfunctional American born people. there is no point in importing more.

IMHO, the most dysfunctional people are generally religious fanatics of one sort or another. they are invertebrates, in a cultural sense. they need strong, dominating structure around them in order to refrain from acting out one against another in violence, and are intensely threatened when a vertebrate stands among them, demonstrating self control without external framework. it enrages them that their own inadequacy is so demonstrated, and they act out in violence and intolerance. dominican catholics were the penultimate example of the type 600 years ago. what religion embodies this behaviour in the present time?

... I was being sarcastic.

[The Nature Boy 4,224]

... I was being sarcastic.

You actually read all that gooblidty goop ?

[Penny Lane 8,159]

It's all about demographics, sex, and orientation. Yup, the racists control America. Good job Democratic party for sticking to your roots!

Good Job indeed! The party of the KKK trying to prove they love everyone know while stabbing each and every one of them in the back a the same time.

Past rulers of the world would be proud, and shedding a tear for the treacherous ways you have brought people under your wing.

It will continue as sheep need guidance and someone to show them the way, as they slowly march down that path to hell that is paved with alleged good intentions. Every leader with ill intention in history though eventually fvcks up and shows their true colors. When that day comes though, it will be interesting to see where the Democratic party has led their people to and when revolution strikes, it might just be too late and the US Domestic Security infrastructure (which has grown exponentially under President Obama) will squash them sheep like the bugs the Democratic party already thinks they are.

What an overreaction, based on delusion instead of facts. Going to be a long four years for you, sir. And if Republicans continue to think the way you do, 2016 is going to be a mess as well. Have fun with that.

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

you need to read it again, friend.

For example:

Misattributed:

The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public's money.

• This is a variant expression of a sentiment which is often attributed to Tocqueville or Alexander Fraser Tytler, but the earliest known occurrence is as an unsourced attribution to Tytler in "This is the Hard Core of Freedom" by Elmer T. Peterson in The Daily Oklahoman (9 December 1951): "A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the majority discovers it can vote itself largess out of the public treasury. After that, the majority always votes for the candidate promising the most benefits with the result the democracy collapses because of the loose fiscal policy ensuing, always to be followed by a dictatorship, then a monarchy."
  
• Variant: The American Republic will endure, until politicians realize they can bribe the people with their own money.
  

[Penny Lane 8,159]

You actually read all that gooblidty goop ?

I read the first few sentences, realized he took me seriously, then just replied.