The truth about the Polls

[OnMyWayID 1,489]

If I am an Obama supporter I am cautiously optimistic.. Majority of the polls are going my way and currently the trends seem to be a pull for my guy. I am a little nervous that some of the polls in the past that have been accurate show my guy behind but.. cautiously optimistic.

If I am a Romney supporter I am somewhat pessimistic. I can take heart there are several polls that show there it is possible to win. I think the race will be much closer that the poll averages would say... but the odds are not in my favor.

If I think either side has it done and that this won't be a nail biter and I am being arrogant about it.. Then I am an idiot.

Edited November 4, 2012 by OnMyWayID

[The Nature Boy 4,224]

If I am an Obama supporter I am cautiously optimistic.. Majority of the polls are going my way and currently the trends seem to be a pull for my guy. I am a little nervous that some of the polls in the past that have been accurate show my guy behind but.. cautiously optimistic.

If I am a Romney supporter I am somewhat pessimistic. I can take heart there are several polls that show there it is possible to win. I think the race will be much closer that the poll averages would say... but the odds are not in my favor.

If I think either side has it done and that this won't be a nail biter and I am being arrogant about it.. Then I am an idiot.

Your not an idiot your are dead on accurate .. I do disagree that the odds are against Romney. I think they are about the same . 2 Weeks ago when romney was opening up 4% leads in many pools I was thinking it was a done deal. Now I just falt don't know. I just hope it breaks Romeny's way. I am think base turnout is going to be the huge factor

[Penny Lane 8,159]

If I were a Romney supporter, my main concern would be that Obama is maintaining his hold on many swing states. Romney had a surge in numbers after the first debate that lasted a couple of weeks. It got things a bit closer, but that seems to have trailed off and the numbers are settling where they're going to stay. Despite that surge, Romney didn't take a lead in some important places, like Ohio.

Without Ohio, I don't see Romney winning and I simply don't see Obama losing Ohio.

A Columbus Dispatch poll found Obama up 50 to 48 in the Buckeye state. But eleven of the last twelve public polls of Ohio have had Obama in the lead, while the twelfth, from the conservative Rasmussen Reports, had the race tied. Romney likely needs to win Ohio to become president — a fact top Romney surrogate Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) admitted Sunday morning.

The president, though, holds a 5-point lead in Iowa, according to a poll Sunday from the Des Moines Register. Recent polls in Virginia similarly also give Obama a slight edge, with a WeAskAmerica poll putting him up 1 and a CBS/New York Times/Quinnipiac poll putting him up 2 points.

Obama also had a 5 point lead here in Wisconsin, last I checked.

Edited November 4, 2012 by Evylin

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

If I were a Romney supporter, my main concern would be that Obama is maintaining his hold on many swing states. Romney had a surge in numbers after the first debate that lasted a couple of weeks. It got things a bit closer, but that seems to have trailed off and the numbers are settling where they're going to stay. Despite that surge, Romney didn't take a lead in some important places, like Ohio.

Without Ohio, I don't see Romney winning and I simply don't see Obama losing Ohio.

Edited November 4, 2012 by The Patriot

[Penny Lane 8,159]

Thanks?

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

Obama also had a 5 point lead here in Wisconsin, last I checked.

Wisconsin is one of those states lateley, where Democrats have been doing well in polling, and losing on election day.

Edited November 4, 2012 by The Patriot

[Penny Lane 8,159]

I guess we'll see.

[Gary and Alla 3,694]

If I am an Obama supporter I am cautiously optimistic.. Majority of the polls are going my way and currently the trends seem to be a pull for my guy. I am a little nervous that some of the polls in the past that have been accurate show my guy behind but.. cautiously optimistic.

If I am a Romney supporter I am somewhat pessimistic. I can take heart there are several polls that show there it is possible to win. I think the race will be much closer that the poll averages would say... but the odds are not in my favor.

If I think either side has it done and that this won't be a nail biter and I am being arrogant about it.. Then I am an idiot.

I am a Gary Johnson supporter. Guaranteed to lose doing the right thing!

[Dan J 277]

Like I said anyone who is honest will admit it is a toss up.

Toss up is what you call it to keep the drama alive. But when several different polls put Obama ahead, its likely that he is ahead even if he is still within the margin of error to call it with certainty. He is ahead in Ohio, and doesn't show any likelihood of changing. Without Ohio, Romney's chance of winning is very small. This is a helpful visualization of the difficulty that Romney has to win: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/11/02/us/politics/paths-to-the-white-house.html

[The Nature Boy 4,224]

Toss up is what you call it to keep the drama alive. But when several different polls put Obama ahead, its likely that he is ahead even if he is still within the margin of error to call it with certainty. He is ahead in Ohio, and doesn't show any likelihood of changing. Without Ohio, Romney's chance of winning is very small. This is a helpful visualization of the difficulty that Romney has to win: http://www.nytimes.c...hite-house.html

almost every national poll including a New Cnn poll just released has them dead even. Not sure why you are saying it is drama. Several Different Polls have Romney ahead also. .Most of the Ohio polls are all withing the margin of error

[scotinmass 588]

FACT 3 out of 4 people make up 75% of the population!

That was actually funny!

[one...two...tree 2,762]

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

So, given PPP's average Democrat bias of 5 points, http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/06/14/1099939/-PPPPTD-Public-Policy-Polling-Performance-to-Date , we can safely say things are about even going into Tuesday in both states, or trending Romney.

[one...two...tree 2,762]

PPP first entered prominence through its performance in the 2008 Democratic primaries between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. The company performed very well, producing extremely accurate predictions in many states ranging from South Carolina to Wisconsin, many of which featured inaccurate results by other pollsters.^[7][8][9]

In 2010, PPP was the first pollster to find Scott Brown with a lead over Martha Coakley in the Massachusetts Senate special election; Brown ultimately won in what was considered an upset.^[10]

In 2011, PPP was praised for its accuracy in polling primaries and special elections, which are notoriously hard to predict. The contests they accurately predicted include the West Virginia gubernatorial primaries, special elections in New York and California,^[11][12] as well as all eight Wisconsin recall elections.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_Policy_Polling

[The Nature Boy 4,224]

PPP. Was founded and is run by democrat at pollsters and is widlwy known in the industry as having a democrat bias Among its other great primary failures was predictions of an Obama victory in pa. In which Clinton won by 9 points