The New Gallup Numbers Are Out: Romney Up by 6

[Bad_Daddy 2,209]

http://news.yahoo.com/gallup-numbers-romney-6-171709551.html

By Elspeth Reeve | The Atlantic Wire – Mon, Oct 22, 2012

Mitt Romney leads President Obama by 6 percentage points among likely voters nationwide, according to Gallup's seven-day tracking poll. The result, 51 percent to 45 percent, is a small 1 point drop for Romney from Sunday. Among registered voters, the poll tightened more significantly, showing Obama just behind Romney 47 percent to 48 percent. The difference between the two findings is significant and the reason Obama's campaign has criticized Gallup.

The widely-respected pollster has shown the largest lead for Romney lately, prompting the Obama campaign to complain that its likely voter screen -- the seven questions it asks respondents to figure out if they'll actually bother to vote -- knocks out too many Obama voters. Other polls have showed Romney with momentum, but not a lead On Sunday, Gallup showed Romney leading 52 percent to 45 percent, which was slightly better than Romney's showing Saturday, which was a lead of 51 percent to 45 percent. Why does each day matter? Because it's folding in results from voters who saw the second presidential debate -- the one Obama won -- while dropping the oldest results from before the debate last Thursday. Obama's victory isn't earning him the same swing in polls that Romney's victory in the first debate did for the Republican. At least, not in Gallup's findings.

[^_^ 5,021]

I'd wait till they release the crosstabs for this poll. If you recall a thread I posted a few days ago with a previous Gallup national poll, Romney's lead in that poll was entirely in the South. Obama led every other region of the country. The popular vote lead was due to huge margins in the South. I think the margin was 20-25 points (huge!!).

It makes for a good narrative, but unfortunately that doesn't get you to 270 in the EC.

[Bad_Daddy 2,209]

[quote name=' timestamp='1351017070' post='5774880]

I'd wait till they release the crosstabs for this poll. If you recall a thread I posted a few days ago with a previous Gallup national poll, Romney's lead in that poll was entirely in the South. Obama led every other region of the country. The popular vote lead was due to huge margins in the South. I think the margin was 20-25 points (huge!!).

It makes for a good narrative, but unfortunately that doesn't get you to 270 in the EC.

I wouldn't be surprised if Romney gets more votes over all but loses with the EC. I don't put much stock in these polls myself.

[^_^ 5,021]

I wouldn't be surprised if Romney gets more votes over all but loses with the EC. I don't put much stock in these polls myself.

I think the polls are as good as they can be given the limitations they face. There's a lot of competitive pressure among firms to have the best record so I do think they try to do a good job.

Personally, I like to follow the state polls simply because that's how we elect Presidents. Even in the event of a 269-269 EC tie, that's how we elect a President! Each state delegation in the house of rep gets ONE vote. It's not apportioned by population. Each delegation gets a single vote. States matter. The national horserace is fun to watch but in the end meaningless.

[Penny Lane 8,159]

I wouldn't be surprised if Romney gets more votes over all but loses with the EC. I don't put much stock in these polls myself.

I am pretty sure that's what is going to happen.

[^_^ 5,021]

I am pretty sure that's what is going to happen.

And it will be so awesome.

Libs have been whining since 2000 about how much they hate the EC.

If that happens, the libs will stop whining and the RWN's will start whining about it instead.

[Teddy B 17,252]

[quote name=' timestamp='1351017640' post='5774907]

And it will be so awesome.

Libs have been whining since 2000 about how much they hate the EC.

If that happens, the libs will stop whining and the RWN's will start whining about it instead.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that there will be whining either way.

[Bad_Daddy 2,209]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that there will be whining either way.

If Romney wins P&R will have a meltdown. Not that I would help instigate it.

[^_^ 5,021]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that there will be whining either way.

you are wise.

If Romney wins P&R will have a meltdown. Not that I would help instigate it.

P&R is mostly republican these days, or have you not noticed?

[Penny Lane 8,159]

If Romney wins P&R will have a meltdown. Not that I would help instigate it.

I doubt it. It seems largely pro-Romney lately anyway.

If Romney wins, I will shrug my shoulders, say "that sucks" and move on with my life.

Edited October 23, 2012 by Evylin

[^_^ 5,021]

I doubt it. It seems largely pro-Romney lately anyway.

If Romney wins, I will shrug my shoulders, say "that sucks" and move on with my life.

Yeah, I will hold out hope that between a Democratic Senate and Romney's innate inability to stick to any kind of principled position on anything, no serious headway will be made towards conservative anything.

[Bad_Daddy 2,209]

Romney reminds me of a loaf of Wonder Bread. There's nothing there of substance. I think he's the lesser of two evils though. Obama is a snake while Romney hasn't had a chance to be a snake yet as president.

[^_^ 5,021]

Romney reminds me of a loaf of Wonder Bread. There's nothing there of substance. I think he's the lesser of two evils though. Obama is a snake while Romney hasn't had a chance to be a snake yet as president.

He was actually a decent governor of Mass. Had he used that persona to run for President, the EC map would look very different.

[Penny Lane 8,159]

Romney reminds me of a loaf of Wonder Bread. There's nothing there of substance. I think he's the lesser of two evils though. Obama is a snake while Romney hasn't had a chance to be a snake yet as president.

And we know everyone deserves equal opportunity to be a snake.

[Teddy B 17,252]

[quote name=' timestamp='1351018840' post='5774949]

Yeah, I will hold out hope that between a Democratic Senate and Romney's innate inability to stick to any kind of principled position on anything, no serious headway will be made towards conservative anything.

The Senate race in Mass between Scott Brown and Elizabeth Warren is very big in this regard, once again Scott Brown could be the key to the Republicans holding power in the Senate.