ALERT: ROMNEY NOW AHEAD IN ELECTORAL COLLEGE

[Danno 1,228]

201 Obama/Biden

Toss Ups

131

Romney/Ryan 206

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

Where is MR BigDog?

[mawilson 2,133]

Well the tossups are the problem.

Romney is leading in Colorado, Florida, Virginia (51 electoral votes), Obama - in Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (80 electoral votes).

If you assume that Romney has Colorado, Florida and Virginia, the breakdown is Romney 257=206+51 vs Obama's 281=201+80.

At this point, Romney needs another 13 electoral votes to win. What can he take?

Iowa (6)

Michigan (16)

Nevada (6)

New Hampshire (4)

Ohio (18)

Pennsylvania (20)

Wisconsin (10)

Ohio alone would be enough. Michigan and Pennsylvania are unlikely - Obama has a 5+ point lead there.

New Hampshire is doable - that's 4. He needs another 9... Wisconsin? Not likely. Iowa might be possible, but it's only 6 votes.

Bottom line: he needs Ohio.

[Pooky 3,850]

Laughing at the uselessness of pre-election polls

[mawilson 2,133]

Laughing at the uselessness of pre-election polls

Don't laugh. Real clear politics averages them out, which is *always* accurate.

[Pooky 3,850]

Don't laugh. Real clear politics averages them out, which is *always* accurate.

Apart from the day or so it takes for the poll numbers to change again

[mawilson 2,133]

Apart from the day or so it takes for the poll numbers to change again

If the poll numbers make it mathematically impossible for one of the candidates to win, people can use that information *today* without having to wait for the actual results.

People trade stocks ahead of earnings reports too, who knew.

[Gary and Alla 3,694]

201 Obama/Biden

Toss Ups

131

Romney/Ryan 206

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

Where is MR BigDog?

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Edited October 20, 2012 by Gary and Alla

[Gary and Alla 3,694]

Well the tossups are the problem.

Romney is leading in Colorado, Florida, Virginia (51 electoral votes), Obama - in Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (80 electoral votes).

If you assume that Romney has Colorado, Florida and Virginia, the breakdown is Romney 257=206+51 vs Obama's 281=201+80.

At this point, Romney needs another 13 electoral votes to win. What can he take?

Iowa (6)

Michigan (16)

Nevada (6)

New Hampshire (4)

Ohio (18)

Pennsylvania (20)

Wisconsin (10)

Ohio alone would be enough. Michigan and Pennsylvania are unlikely - Obama has a 5+ point lead there.

New Hampshire is doable - that's 4. He needs another 9... Wisconsin? Not likely. Iowa might be possible, but it's only 6 votes.

Bottom line: he needs Ohio.

And if this is accurate, and it could be given that Ohio has been invaded with campaign people, it is ore proof we need to get rid of the electoral college.

[mawilson 2,133]

And if this is accurate, and it could be given that Ohio has been invaded with campaign people, it is ore proof we need to get rid of the electoral college.

Or give each state the same number of votes, so that North Dakota counts the same as California.

We do that with Senators, why not with electoral votes.

[Gary and Alla 3,694]

Or give each state the same number of votes, so that North Dakota counts the same as California.

We do that with Senators, why not with electoral votes.

Why not just have an election, count the votes and see who has the most? If you are going to insist on someone getting 50% then schedule a run-off three weeks later if needed for the top 2 vote getters. Eliminate any government support of primary elections, let the parties choose their own candidates like they used to. Government is not the same as political parties. Seems like a rather simple, 3 line constitutional amendment.

Edited October 20, 2012 by Gary and Alla

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

Or give each state the same number of votes, so that North Dakota counts the same as California.

We do that with Senators, why not with electoral votes.

Better yet, let the body closest to the people, pick the President, or put the House and Senate together and let them vote en mass. No more national elections, no more Presidential campaigns, no more electoral college, no more seniors that can't read a ballot. If they pick wrong, they can always impeach the dimwit, and select another.

[Danno 1,228]

Why not just have an election, count the votes and see who has the most? If you are going to insist on someone getting 50% then schedule a run-off three weeks later if needed for the top 2 vote getters. Eliminate any government support of primary elections, let the parties choose their own candidates like they used to. Government is not the same as political parties. Seems like a rather simple, 3 line constitutional amendment.

Because you could realistically have 10 percent of the land mass controlling the other 90% Not a path to peace.

[Gary and Alla 3,694]

Because you could realistically have 10 percent of the land mass controlling the other 90% Not a path to peace.

And this election it will be determined by Ohio

[Danno 1,228]

This election could be so close it may well end up loosing it because the DNC pushed Obama to come out for gay marriage before the election.

He won NC last time, this state just passed a constitutional definition which is very tuff, in fact it was roundly predicted to fail because of it, instead it passed by more the 60%.

How does a state which votes 60 sum percent on the marriage issue turn around and go for Obama? I can't see it happening.

[Gary and Alla 3,694]

This election could be so close it may well end up loosing it because the DNC pushed Obama to come out for gay marriage before the election.

He won NC last time, this state just passed a constitutional definition which is very tuff, in fact it was roundly predicted to fail because of it, instead it passed by more the 60%.

How does a state which votes 60 sum percent on the marriage issue turn around and go for Obama? I can't see it happening.

Because different people will be energized to come out and vote is one way. I would not expect Obama to win NC though, is there anyone that does?