Poll: Obama over 50% in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania

[JohnSmith2007 353]

No, I follow those that have a good track record of getting it right.

Poll Accuracy in the 2008 Presidential Election

—Initial Report, November 5, 2008—

Costas Panagopoulos, Ph.D.

Department of Political Science

Fordham University

For all the derision directed toward pre-election polling, the final poll estimates were not

far off from the actual nationwide voteshares for the two candidates. On average, preelection

polls from 23 public polling organizations projected a Democratic advantage of

7.52 percentage points on Election Day, which is only about 1.37 percentage points away

from the current estimate of a 6.15-point Obama margin in the national popular vote.

Following the procedures proposed by Martin, Traugott and Kennedy (see Public Opinion

Quarterly, Fall 2006, pp. 342-369) to assess poll accuracy, I analyze poll estimates from

these 23 polling organizations. Four of these polls appear to have overestimated McCain

support (indicated with a * below), while most polls (17) overestimated Obama strength.

Pre-election projections for two organizations’ final polls—Rasmussen and Pew—were

perfectly in agreement with the actual election result (**).

The following list ranks the 23 organizations by the accuracy of their final, national preelection

polls (as reported on pollster.com).

1. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**

1. Pew (10/29-11/1)**

2. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)

3. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)

4. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*

5. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*

5. ARG (10/25-27)*

6. CNN (10/30-11/1)

6. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)

7. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)

8. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)

9. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)

10. FOX (11/1-2)

11. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)

12. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)

13. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)

14. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)

15. Marist College (11/3)

16. CBS (10/31-11/2)

17. Gallup (10/31-11/2)

18. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)

19. CBS/Times (10/25-29)

20. Newsweek (10/22-23)

http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/poll%20accuracy%20in%20the%202008%20presidential%20election.pdf

Need I say more?

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

Much bigger gaps. 51-43, 50-42, 54-39.

Now it's 50-44, 51-45, 53-42 - a few percentage points can make all the difference in the world.

When you look at the Oct 1 poll and the actual election results I posted earlier, you will see that Q had it spot-on. Look, it's August and it's still an eternity to November. These numbers can certainly change. In fact, they have changed since Q had Mitt running slightly ahead of Obama just a couple of months ago. So this is by no means an indication that Obama has this in the bag - he doesn't. But the trend is certainly encouraging. Just wait until Mitt gets tied to his fellow Republican FL governor who is about as popular as hemorrhoids down here and the fun will begin. Just ehard yesterday that Charlie Crist is going to campaign for his good friend Sen. Nelson down here. Not hard to imagine that Charlie will have a kind word or two for Obama as well. Now Charlie still enjoys significant popularity in the state outside the lunatic tea party fringe.

Make no mistake, Mitt has an uphill battle ahead of him in the sunshine state. The odds are against him. And he knows it. He's actually attacking Obama in the state for cutting government spending while accusing him of, well, excessive government spending. You figure that out.

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

No, it tanked in Sept 2008. Up until then the stock market was at all time highs and unemployment was in the 4% range.

Wrong. The stock market reached its peak in October 2007. DJIA lost close to 2,000 points from its peak by the beginning of 2008 and continued its slide through Sept 2008 by which time it had already lost 25% from it's peak a year earlier. Then Lehman went down and the stock market with it. Helps to at least keep the facts straight.

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

Rassmussen has a really good record as well. Their polls show a much different story.

The latest from Rasmussen that I could find had Obama and Romney tied in FL and Obama ahead in PA and OH. How is that a much different story?

[JohnSmith2007 353]

The latest from Rasmussen that I could find had Obama and Romney tied in FL and Obama ahead in PA and OH. How is that a much different story?

You don't see a difference between tied and a 6 point spread? Ok.........

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

So place your bet then. I encourage you to put your entire retirement fund there.

I don't do bets. I've got better things to do.

[JohnSmith2007 353]

I don't do bets. I've got better things to do.

Like arguing on VJ?

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

You don't see a difference between tied and a 6 point spread? Ok.........

You can't see the same trend? ok...

Like arguing on VJ?

sure. better than betting.

[JohnSmith2007 353]

You can't see the same trend? ok...

I see a trend towards Romney.

Since Feb of this year he has been gaining on Obama.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html