Poll: Obama over 50% in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania

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The Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll showed Obama leading his Republican challenger Mitt Romney in Florida 51%-45%, in Ohio 50%-44%, and in Pennsylvania 53%-42%.

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The poll indicated that only 4% of likely voters in each of the three states had yet to decide on a candidate to support.

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In all three battlegrounds, an enthusiasm gap persists between the two candidates. Sixty five percent of Obama supporters in Florida say they strongly favor the president, compared to 49% of Romney's backers who say they strongly favor the Republican candidate.

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The Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll was conducted by telephone July 24-30. In Florida, 1,177 likely voters were polled and the sampling error was plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. In Ohio, 1,193 likely voters were called with a sampling error of 2.8 percentage points. And in Pennsylvania, 1,168 likely voters were polled with a sampling error of 2.9 percentage points.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/08/01/polls-obama-over-50-in-florida-ohio-and-pennsylvania/

[justashooter 430]

won't matter if the dead people don't vote.

[JohnSmith2007 353]

CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac swing-state polls show Obama hitting 50% …

posted at 8:41 am on August 1, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

I’ve got good news and bad news for Hot Air readers today. First, the good news: After a few years of embarrassing sample skew problems in the CBS/NYT polls, the two media outlets have partnered with Quinnipiac, at least for this week’s look at three swing states — Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. The bad news? I’m not sure the new partnership improved things.

First, let’s look at CBS’ lead on the new poll numbers, which they tout as good news for Barack Obama and bad news for Mitt Romney:

President Obama leads Mitt Romney among likely voters in Ohio and Florida – and has a double-digit lead in Pennsylvania – according to a Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll released this morning.

The poll, conducted from July 24-30, shows Mr. Obama leading his presumptive Republican challenger 53 percent to 42 percent in Pennsylvania. The 11-point lead results largely from independents, who favor the president by 22 points, and women, who favor the president by 24 points.

Mr. Obama holds a six-point lead in Ohio, 50 percent to 44 percent, a state where he holds a campaign event later today. His lead here is also due in large part to women, who back him by a 21-point margin. Romney leads by ten points among Ohio men, and seven points among Ohio whites.

In Florida, Mr. Obama also holds a six point lead, 51 percent to 45 percent. He holds a small lead among both men and women and a 19-point lead among Hispanics, while Romney leads by double-digits among whites and voters age 65 and above.

Now let’s take a look at the partisan breakdown (D/R/I) in the sample data for each state, and compare them to 2008 and 2010 exit polling:

Florida: CBS/NYT 36/27/32, 2008 37/34/29, 2010 36/36/29

Ohio: CBS/NYT 35/27/32, 2008 39/31/30, 2010 36/37/28

Pennsylvania: CBS/NYT 38/32/26, 2008 44/37/18, 2010 40/37/23

The CBS/NYT model has Democrats a +9 in Florida when in 2008 they were only a +3 and an even split in the 2010 midterms. Ohio’s sample has exactly the split in 2008 (D+8), which is nine points better than Democrats did in the midterms. Pennsylvania’s numbers (D+6) come closest to a rational predictive model, somewhere between 2008′s D+7 and 2010′s D+3, but still looking mighty optimistic for Democratic turnout.

In other words, these polls are entirely predictive if one believes that Democrats will outperform their turnout models from the 2008 election in Florida and Ohio. That would require a huge boost in Democratic enthusiasm and a sharp dropoff in Republican enthusiasm — which is exactly the opposite that Gallup found last week.

CBS/NYT polling: New partner … same issues.

http://hotair.com/archives/2012/08/01/cbsnytquinnipiac-swing-state-polls-show-obama-hitting-50/

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

Hot Air

Flashback:

October 1, 2008 - Obama Over 50 Percent In Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds

• Florida: Obama up 49 - 43 percent pre-debate and 51 - 43 percent post-debate;
  
• Ohio: Obama up 49 - 42 percent pre-debate and 50 - 42 percent post-debate;
  
• Pennsylvania: Obama ahead 49 - 43 percent pre-debate and 54 - 39 percent post-debate.

Election Results:

• FL: Obama 51.03% - McCain 48.22%
  
• OH: Obama 51.50% - McCain 46.91%
  
• PA: Obama 54.64% - McCain 44.29%

Close enough for me.

[JohnSmith2007 353]

Flashback:

October 1, 2008 - Obama Over 50 Percent In Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds

• Florida: Obama up 49 - 43 percent pre-debate and 51 - 43 percent post-debate;
  
• Ohio: Obama up 49 - 42 percent pre-debate and 50 - 42 percent post-debate;
  
• Pennsylvania: Obama ahead 49 - 43 percent pre-debate and 54 - 39 percent post-debate.

Election Results:

• FL: Obama 51.03% - McCain 48.22%
  
• OH: Obama 51.50% - McCain 46.91%
  
• PA: Obama 54.64% - McCain 44.29%

Close enough for me.

I think you missed the point. The poll has misrepresented the party make-up based upon prior voter turnout. In other words the poll is skewed towards the Dem party. If you think the Dem turnout will be as good or better than 2008 I have a bridge to sell you.

Edited August 2, 2012 by JohnSmith2007

[Teddy B 17,252]

The Republicans don't have anything substantially different to offer. Romney rightfully has the perception of being weak and changing his stance at the drop of a hat, I don't think that many Independent voters will bite on that. Add to that the Republicans have been stonewalling and log jamming every piece of legislation that has been presented in the last 4 years, a lot of people, conservatives included, have grown tired of the same old song and dance.

Obama will be re-elected and come November I believe the gap between Obama and Romney will be at least 10 points if not more. And for the first time in my 30 year voting history, I will more than likely vote for a Democrat for President.

Edited August 2, 2012 by Teddy B

[JohnSmith2007 353]

The Republicans don't have anything substantially different to offer. Romney rightfully has the perception of being weak and changing his stance at the drop of a hat, I don't think that many Independent voters will bite on that. Add to that the Republicans have been stonewalling and log jamming every piece of legislation that has been presented in the last 4 years, a lot of people, conservatives included, have grown tired of the same old song and dance.

Obama will be re-elected and come November I believe the gap between Obama and Romney will be at least 10 points if not more.

So go to Intrade and put your money where your mouth is. I for one seriously doubt that the country is stupid enough to re-elect a president that has given us 4 years of 8%+ unemployment and a doubling of the national debt with nothing to show for it.

[Penny Lane 8,159]

So go to Intrade and put your money where your mouth is. I for one seriously doubt that the country is stupid enough to re-elect a president that has given us 4 years of 8%+ unemployment and a doubling of the national debt with nothing to show for it.

The same country re-elected Bush.

If that man deserved 8 years, so does Obama.

Edited August 2, 2012 by Evylin

[Ban Hammer 13,590]

The same country re-elected Bush.

If that man deserved 8 years, so does Obama.

but does the american people?

[JohnSmith2007 353]

The same country re-elected Bush.

If that man deserved 8 years, so does Obama.

For 7 1\2 years of Bush's terms we had a pretty good economy. Not great, but much better than the last 3 years. Obama deserves nothing but someone to show him the door.

[Penny Lane 8,159]

For 7 1\2 years of Bush's terms we had a pretty good economy. Not great, but much better than the last 3 years. Obama deserves nothing but someone to show him the door.

Ok then.

How will Romney "fix" this disastrous economy?

Edited August 2, 2012 by Evylin

[JohnR! 5,495]

1343931954[/url]' post='5578739']

So go to Intrade and put your money where your mouth is. I for one seriously doubt that the country is stupid enough to re-elect a president that has given us 4 years of 8%+ unemployment and a doubling of the national debt with nothing to show for it.

Ya shoulda been here in 2003....

[Teddy B 17,252]

So go to Intrade and put your money where your mouth is. I for one seriously doubt that the country is stupid enough to re-elect a president that has given us 4 years of 8%+ unemployment and a doubling of the national debt with nothing to show for it.

I'm not a gambler, but thanks.

You don't really believe that the President has that much influence over the economy, do you?

[JohnSmith2007 353]

Ya shoulda been here in 2003....

Been here since 1958. I am well aware of how it was then compared to today.

Ok then.

How will Romney "fix" this disastrous economy?

Go to his web site and see for yourself. He has a plan.

[mawilson 2,133]

• Florida: Obama up 49 - 43 percent pre-debate and 51 - 43 percent post-debate;
  
• Ohio: Obama up 49 - 42 percent pre-debate and 50 - 42 percent post-debate;
  
• Pennsylvania: Obama ahead 49 - 43 percent pre-debate and 54 - 39 percent post-debate.

Much bigger gaps. 51-43, 50-42, 54-39.

Now it's 50-44, 51-45, 53-42 - a few percentage points can make all the difference in the world.