In the Long Run, Is the GOP Dead?

[Danno 1,228]

In the Long Run, Is the GOP Dead?

By Patrick J. Buchanan

Friday - July 27, 2012

Since 1928, only Dwight Eisenhower and George W. Bush have won the presidency while capturing both houses of Congress for the GOP.

In his 49-state landslide, Richard Nixon failed to take either House. In his two landslides, Ronald Reagan won back only the Senate. Yet Mitt Romney is even money to pull off the hat trick.

With this hopeful prospect, why the near despair among so many Republicans about the long term?

In his New York Times report, "In California, GOP Fights Steep Decline," Adam Nagourney delves into the reasons.

In the Golden Land, a state Nixon carried all five times he was on a national ticket and Reagan carried by landslides all four times he ran, the GOP does not hold a single statewide office. It gained not a single House seat in the 2010 landslide. Party registration has fallen to 30 percent of the California electorate and is steadily sinking.

Why? It is said that California Republicans are too out of touch, too socially conservative on issues like right-to-life and gay rights. "When you look at the population growth," says GOP consultant Steve Schmidt, "the actual party is shrinking. It's becoming more white. It's becoming older."

Race, age and ethnicity are at the heart of the problem. And they portend not only the party's death in California, but perhaps its destiny in the rest of America.

Consider. Almost 90 percent of all Republican voters in presidential elections are white. Almost 90 percent are Christians. But whites fell to 74 percent of the electorate in 2008 and were only 64 percent of the population. Christians are down to 75 percent of the population from 85 in 1990. The falloff continues and is greatest among the young.

Consider ethnicity. Hispanics were 15 percent of the U.S. population in 2008 and 7.4 percent of the electorate. Both percentages will inexorably rise.

Yet in their best years, like 2004, Republicans lose the Hispanic vote 3-to-2. In bad years, like 2008, they lose it 2-to-1. Whites are already a minority in California, and Hispanics will eventually become the majority.

Say goodbye to the Golden Land.

Asian-Americans voted 3-to-2 for Obama, black Americans 24-to-1. The Asian population in California and the nation is growing rapidly. The black population, 13 percent of the nation, is growing steadily.

Whites, already a minority in our two most populous states, will be less than half the U.S. population by 2041 and a minority in 10 states by 2020.

Consider now the Electoral College picture.

Of the seven mega-states, California, New York and Illinois appear lost to the GOP. Pennsylvania has not gone Republican since 1988. Ohio and Florida, both crucial, are now swing states. Whites have become a minority in Texas. When Texas goes, America goes.

This year could be the last hurrah.

The GOP must work harder to win Hispanic votes, we are told. But consider the home economics and self-interest of Hispanics.

Half of all U.S. wage-earners pay no income tax. Yet that half and their families receive free education K-12, Medicaid, rent supplements, food stamps, earned income tax credits, Pell grants, welfare payments, unemployment checks and other benefits.

Why should poor, working- and middle-class Hispanics, the vast majority, vote for a party that will reduce taxes they don't pay, but cut the benefits they do receive?

The majority of Latinos, African-Americans, immigrants and young people 18 to 25 pay no income taxes yet enjoy a panoply of government benefits. Does not self-interest dictate a vote for the party that will let them keep what they have and perhaps give them more, rather than the party that will pare back what they now receive?

What are the historic blunders of the Grand Old Party that may yet appear on the autopsy report as probable causes of death?

First, the party, intimidated by name-calling, refused to stop a tidal wave of immigration that brought 40 million people here whose families depend heavily on government. We needed a time-out to assimilate them and see them move out of the tax-consuming sector of the nation.

Republicans acquiesced in the importation of a new electorate that may provide the decisive votes to send the party to the ash heap of history.

Second, Republicans, when enacting tax cuts, repeatedly dropped millions of taxpayers off the rolls, creating a huge class that contributes little to pay for the expanding cornucopia of benefits it receives.

Third, the social revolution of the 1960s captured the culture and converted much of the nation. According to a new Pew poll, the number of Americans who profess a belief in no religion at all has tripled since the 1990s and is now one in five of our countrymen.

If your racial and ethnic voter base is aging, shrinking and dying, your moral code is being rejected, and the tax-consuming class has been allowed to grow to equal or to dwarf the taxpaying class, the Grand Old Party has a problem. But then so, too, does the country.

[Darnell 8,479]

Perhaps the GOP will have a new platform with some different 'demographic', soonish?

[Bad_Daddy 2,209]

This country is doomed. The writing has been on the wall for the past few decades now and Obama has helped accelerate it. Lucky for me I'm past the halfway point in my life. The only thing that would fix this country imo would be a revolution followed by keeping our borders in check along with mass deportation not seen since the time of Stalin.

We are pretty much going to end up a 3rd World ####### hole populated by freaks and gang bangers.

[Danno 1,228]

Perhaps the GOP will have a new platform with some different 'demographic', soonish?

Lets follow that thought.

Q: What would be different in the new platform?

Q: What new demographic might worK... and why would they vote GOP?

[Danno 1,228]

This country is doomed. The writing has been on the wall for the past few decades now and Obama has helped accelerate it. Lucky for me I'm past the halfway point in my life. The only thing that would fix this country imo would be a revolution followed by keeping our borders in check along with mass deportation not seen since the time of Stalin.

We are pretty much going to end up a 3rd World ####### hole populated by freaks and gang bangers.

THats what so cool, we are at that perfect age where we enjoyed the "real America"

We will be able to say "we told you so"

and yet we will be checking out before it gets really bad.

Winning!

[Sofiyya 1,687]

I finally got to the point where I hate Romney and the GOP more than Obama, so Obama has my vote.

[Bad_Daddy 2,209]

THats what so cool, we are at that perfect age where we enjoyed the "real America"

We will be able to say "we told you so"

and yet we will be checking out before it gets really bad.

Winning!

Iv'e never lived in a big city other than a 6 mos. stint in Tacoma, WA and like you I can say I remember when we were #1. Let the libs have this country and turn it into a 3rd World ####### hole like their bent on doing anyways. I don't see a lot of people moving north to Alaska in droves like they did in the early and mid 80's so that's another good thing. I'm surrounded by red necks and I prefer it that way. No gang banging here and we speak English in these parts. 4x4's, guns, fishing, bon fires on the river bank and the occasional trip to Seattle just to remind me of how good I have it up here. I just hope I live long enough to watch California default on those $billion dollar projects.

[Danno 1,228]

I finally got to the point where I hate Romney and the GOP more than Obama, so Obama has my vote.

Did you vote for him last time?

[Danno 1,228]

Iv'e never lived in a big city other than a 6 mos. stint in Tacoma, WA and like you I can say I remember when we were #1. Let the libs have this country and turn it into a 3rd World ####### hole like their bent on doing anyways. I don't see a lot of people moving north to Alaska in droves like they did in the early and mid 80's so that's another good thing. I'm surrounded by red necks and I prefer it that way. No gang banging here and we speak English in these parts. 4x4's, guns, fishing, bon fires on the river bank and the occasional trip to Seattle just to remind me of how good I have it up here. I just hope I live long enough to watch California default on those $billion dollar projects.

Thats the other sweet thing about this country, a person can often relocate to an area which suites his lifestyle.. what ever that may be, as for those red-blooded American types (The one that the libs wet their pants over)... this country still has a few more decades left in these ever shrinking territories.

As we slide to a -mono political party model, we will then enjoy all the fruits of third world livin.

It will be like Brazil but without the babes. (not a bad place if you have hotel money)

And one would assume as the rich have fled California so will the rich have long departed from the American shores as well (who sticks around to be fleeced twice?)

On the bright side immigration will have ceased to be a problem, I mean why hoof it 2500 miles to a place thats no better than home?

[Dan J 277]

We wont end up with a single party. Instead I expect the GOP to shift more toward Libertarianism with less focus on or even abandoning the socially conservative/religious parts of its platform.

US political parties have shifted positions as demographics have changed. They will keep doing so into the future.

[Danno 1,228]

We wont end up with a single party. Instead I expect the GOP to shift more toward Libertarianism with less focus on or even abandoning the socially conservative/religious parts of its platform.

US political parties have shifted positions as demographics have changed. They will keep doing so into the future.

Either you didn't read the posted piece or didi't get it.

Those that embrace the philosophy of the Right are Numerically in decline..... will soon not be able to get the electoral College votes needed to win a national election nor have much of a voice in the house.

Those groups which are expanding in numbers vote big - gov by 2 to 1.

The libertarian party is cut from the same cloth as the GOP and has the exact same fate.

Parties which seek to limit Gov will soon have no chance at winning the white house.

You suggest they "shift their positions" to what?

[Dan J 277]

Either you didn't read the posted piece or didi't get it.

Those that embrace the philosophy of the Right are Numerically in decline..... will soon not be able to get the electoral College votes needed to win a national election nor have much of a voice in the house.

Those groups which are expanding in numbers vote big - gov by 2 to 1.

The libertarian party is cut from the same cloth as the GOP and has the exact same fate.

Parties which seek to limit Gov will soon have no chance at winning the white house.

You suggest they "shift their positions" to what?

Libertarians have a pretty liberal position on social issues and is a political position that is popular with some groups of young people. Its the GOP's insistence to stay with conservative positions on social issues that is largely leading to its decline. Which is why I see a shift to Libertarianism the only way the GOP will be relevant.

It could also end up that libertarianism is born out of a split from the democratic party if the GOP isnt fast enough to realize the changing trends.

[Danno 1,228]

Libertarians have a pretty liberal position on social issues and is a political position that is popular with some groups of young people. Its the GOP's insistence to stay with conservative positions on social issues that is largely leading to its decline. Which is why I see a shift to Libertarianism the only way the GOP will be relevant.

It could also end up that libertarianism is born out of a split from the democratic party if the GOP isnt fast enough to realize the changing trends.

Here let me try another way.

The libertarians are a branch from a tree which is getting smaller each year... yet you see this as the answer for the future.

Libertarians want to take away the free things from the growing segment of voters.

-Why would people who like a bigger role of government......who might be receiving benefits or wages from the government

vote for a party which wants to cut or eliminate this?

[Teddy B 17,252]

This country is doomed. The writing has been on the wall for the past few decades now and Obama has helped accelerate it. Lucky for me I'm past the halfway point in my life. The only thing that would fix this country imo would be a revolution followed by keeping our borders in check along with mass deportation not seen since the time of Stalin.

We are pretty much going to end up a 3rd World ####### hole populated by freaks and gang bangers.

Spot on! I've come to this realization in the last few years myself. Fortunately like you, I am past the halfway point of my life also. Luckily I have no kids, so I don't have to worry about the 3rd world ####### hole that they will have to live in, but I do feel sorry for those true Americans that do have children and want them to live the American way of life, unfortunately it won't be there for them.

[JohnSmith2007 353]

At some point the whole thing (the country) will collapse. All the social programs will go belly up and we will look like Europe in the 30's. At that point we will face a moment of truth that cannot be avoided. We will either turn to a totalitarian system like Germany did or we will restructure the entire country to a point that it is back in line with the original intent of the founders. One way or another something drastic will happen. We cannot sustain the social programs as they are today.