VSC on a coffee break..for the week

[Therealworld 90]

How do you know they have not processed not 1 visa. Did you forget that the timelines you see are only according to VJ which is a small portion to the actual number of applications they receive

[bsd058 296]

It looks like you figured out where I obtained this estimate from. I took into account a little more in depth about the average month having only 22 processing days. The VSC having 2006 applicaitons and 84 on here... that is roughly 4%. Maybe they receive 92 petitions a day (I can say 91.2 but reality is the number has to be an integer) so we see maybe 4 or 5 filers to fall on the same day in the time line section of this site. So, both calculations are showing the same thing. There are some users on here without timelines. But only 3-5% is the most you can get.

Technically (according to the data), assuming the normality of the percentage mean of VJers vs. the actual petitioners of the I-129F, the percentage of the total population of I-129F filers that come to VJ will fall between 4.9% - 6.9% about 99.5% of the time each month. So the 99% confidence interval is about (4.9% , 6.9%).

So it's even greater than what you thought, and MUCH greater than what I thought.

These are the stats I used:

Mean = 5.9%.

SE = about .3337%. SD = about 1%, and n = 10 months. So SE = .01 / 10^.5 = .3%.

Assumed approx. normality. If I had a greater number of months to work with, then I could conclude approx. normality based on CLT. Unfortunately, VJ only goes back 12 months.

Edited June 28, 2012 by bsd058

[orangedesk 27]

How do you know they have not processed not 1 visa. Did you forget that the timelines you see are only according to VJ which is a small portion to the actual number of applications they receive

Some people on the message board have figured out a way to search by case number, not a VJ user's timeline. If I understand their efforts correctly, they have taken the EAC numbers they're given, put them into a spreadsheet and manually typed them in on the USCIS website to obtain 500+ numbers of people who have submitted I129Fs. If you type all of those in manually and see that none are approved and they're all from the service center, it's more accurate.

[MrsSomers00 0]

I understand clearly. I am a January 19 filer and I still have not heard anything from vermont. Last time I called they claimes still working on 6/9. Three weeks and they are still working on 6/9 filers... that is creazy. Dont make any sense at all.

[jwillsher 2]

Looking at their current workload and trends helps to answer the question why is VSC SO SLOW.

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=4&office=6&charttype=1

[scott76 22]

There have been two people total for this week on the IR/CR1. That's not an I-129F. Why havent they moved either?

Go here

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=20&office=6&charttype=1

You can select "Visa Type" and see what different applications they process.

My guess is that they are concentrating on I-102, I-131, I-140 and others right now....

Which visa applications they work on and emphasize seems to by cyclical depending on the volumes and how far they are behind from meeting estimated wait times.

[RobbyUSA 26]

protected status cases from Syrians that are in the USA.

how many times do I have to tell you guys this is why there is a huge delay!

Post Decision Activity

On May 15, 2012, we mailed you a notice that we have approved this I821 APPLICATION FOR TEMPORARY PROTECTED STATUS. Please follow any instructions on the notice.

.

Edited June 28, 2012 by RobbyUSA

[P+J 47]

Some people on the message board have figured out a way to search by case number, not a VJ user's timeline. If I understand their efforts correctly, they have taken the EAC numbers they're given, put them into a spreadsheet and manually typed them in on the USCIS website to obtain 500+ numbers of people who have submitted I129Fs. If you type all of those in manually and see that none are approved and they're all from the service center, it's more accurate.

Yes. Over in the January filers thread we have a spreadsheet that located all the petitions by receipt number. There were a couple of approvals today. But still far below what you would expect right now..End of H1B Fiscal year and Syrian Protected Status apps are our worst enemy. Hopefully things will improve soon.

Edited June 28, 2012 by Paul86

[NYYankees355 11]

Yes. Over in the January filers thread we have a spreadsheet that located all the petitions by receipt number. There were a couple of approvals today. But still far below what you would expect right now..End of H1B Fiscal year and Syrian Protected Status apps are our worst enemy. Hopefully things will improve soon.

Hi,

sorry im not real clear on the whole H1B fiscal year thing, i thought this had to do with specialized work visas? How does this pertain to the I129F or I130 situation? Thanks

[Gosia & Tito 199]

It looks like you figured out where I obtained this estimate from. I took into account a little more in depth about the average month having only 22 processing days. The VSC having 2006 applicaitons and 84 on here... that is roughly 4%. Maybe they receive 92 petitions a day (I can say 91.2 but reality is the number has to be an integer) so we see maybe 4 or 5 filers to fall on the same day in the time line section of this site. So, both calculations are showing the same thing. There are some users on here without timelines. But only 3-5% is the most you can get. I searched online and it looks like this be the largest site for all types of visas, including the 129F. That small sample size has to do.

But whoever said that it could happen that no one in a full week on here gets approved (there is now one person that updated for their 6/26 NOA2)....c'mon.

While the stats estimates are sound; the problem is that you are assuming a process (statistical process that is) that is stable; and it is not. The constant transfers, additions of load (Syrian protected status, H1B fiscal year, the recent Obama decision to grant working documents to a population estimated to be about 800-900 thou; etc. makes this process quite unstable and thus statistics do not apply well. At same time, we are not even accounting for what i'd call outliers: RFEs that require additional processing time.

At best, I'd give that when a service center gets into a 'regular' cycle (about once a year for several months) then, stats might be useful and that is why at times, VJ sampling fits well with actual outcomes.

[Tommy and Maria 4]

three days ago they told me they are working on jan 23 and that was two different people.

I understand clearly. I am a January 19 filer and I still have not heard anything from vermont. Last time I called they claimes still working on 6/9. Three weeks and they are still working on 6/9 filers... that is creazy. Dont make any sense at all.

[Caribbean Pirate 9]

It looks like a whole bunch of people updated their CR1/iR1 timelines today. All of. A sudden we have approvals that weren't there before. The information is only as accurate as people updating the timelines.

[Stu4Lee 66]

Some people on the message board have figured out a way to search by case number, not a VJ user's timeline. If I understand their efforts correctly, they have taken the EAC numbers they're given, put them into a spreadsheet and manually typed them in on the USCIS website to obtain 500+ numbers of people who have submitted I129Fs. If you type all of those in manually and see that none are approved and they're all from the service center, it's more accurate.

Yes it's more accurate but....

Approx 1800 receipts were received in Jan 2012, it was 1809 it's now showing as 1784.

The 500+ you mention were noted as being all I-129F receipts between the 3rd and the 20th.

That means the other approx 1300 receipts were in only 13 days in the month.

Seems highly unlikely, even allowing for daily variances in numbers, don't you think?

Just a theory

In any case there is a huge difference between processing in order and approving in order, neither of which happen.

Edited June 29, 2012 by Stu4Lee

[katchoo12 8]

If they are processing Jan 23rd they passed mine without an approval

[Stu4Lee 66]

I noticed earlier that there was 1 approval on 26th and 1 denial on 27th.

Both of these had same receipt date as myself of 11/22/2011 though