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VSC on a coffee break..for the week

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Filed: Citizen (apr) Country: Canada
Timeline

It looks like you figured out where I obtained this estimate from. I took into account a little more in depth about the average month having only 22 processing days. The VSC having 2006 applicaitons and 84 on here... that is roughly 4%. Maybe they receive 92 petitions a day (I can say 91.2 but reality is the number has to be an integer) so we see maybe 4 or 5 filers to fall on the same day in the time line section of this site. So, both calculations are showing the same thing. There are some users on here without timelines. But only 3-5% is the most you can get.

Technically (according to the data), assuming the normality of the percentage mean of VJers vs. the actual petitioners of the I-129F, the percentage of the total population of I-129F filers that come to VJ will fall between 4.9% - 6.9% about 99.5% of the time each month. So the 99% confidence interval is about (4.9% , 6.9%).

So it's even greater than what you thought, and MUCH greater than what I thought.

These are the stats I used:

Mean = 5.9%.

SE = about .3337%. SD = about 1%, and n = 10 months. So SE = .01 / 10^.5 = .3%.

Assumed approx. normality. If I had a greater number of months to work with, then I could conclude approx. normality based on CLT. Unfortunately, VJ only goes back 12 months.

Edited by bsd058

 

IR-1 Visa Timeline (Service Center: Vermont)

image.png.806852c45242bc72b5f44a862566bdaf.png

 

N-400 Timeline (Field Office: Orlando, FL) & Voter Registration (Online)

image.png.c85e21010f669e0303f6fafb51f19f82.png

 

Passport Timeline (Submitted at USPS, Standard Processing, Standard Delivery, Locator number: 51) & SSA Update & Naturalization Certificate Receipt

 

03/23/2022: Application for passport submitted at USPS facility under standard processing.

04/04/2022: Status changed to “The U.S. Department of State has received your application for your passport book on 04/04/2022. We're now reviewing your application and supporting documents...Your application locator number is 51*******.

04/04/2022: Check for passport cashed.

05/03/2022: Status changed to "The U.S. Department of State approved your application for your passport book. We're now printing your passport book and preparing to give it to you. You should receive your passport book on or around 05/09/2022."

05/05/2022: Passport Received.

05/09/2022: SSA Citizenship Status Updated.

05/25/2022: Naturalization Certificate received in mail.

 

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How do you know they have not processed not 1 visa. Did you forget that the timelines you see are only according to VJ which is a small portion to the actual number of applications they receive

Some people on the message board have figured out a way to search by case number, not a VJ user's timeline. If I understand their efforts correctly, they have taken the EAC numbers they're given, put them into a spreadsheet and manually typed them in on the USCIS website to obtain 500+ numbers of people who have submitted I129Fs. If you type all of those in manually and see that none are approved and they're all from the service center, it's more accurate.

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Filed: Other Country: Jamaica
Timeline

I understand clearly. I am a January 19 filer and I still have not heard anything from vermont. Last time I called they claimes still working on 6/9. Three weeks and they are still working on 6/9 filers... that is creazy. Dont make any sense at all.

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Filed: K-1 Visa Country: Moldova
Timeline

There have been two people total for this week on the IR/CR1. That's not an I-129F. Why havent they moved either?

Go here

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=20&office=6&charttype=1

You can select "Visa Type" and see what different applications they process.

My guess is that they are concentrating on I-102, I-131, I-140 and others right now....

Which visa applications they work on and emphasize seems to by cyclical depending on the volumes and how far they are behind from meeting estimated wait times.

K1 Process -

1/30/12 - I-129F sent

2/2/12 - NOA1 Received (CSC)

2/3/12 - Visa App Fee Check Cashed

6/18/12 - NOA2 Email Received at 9PM MST

6/22/12 - NOA2 Letter Received in Mail

7/11/12 - NVC Received

7/13/12 - NVC Sent Case to Moldova Embassy

7/18/12 - Packet 3 dropped off to Embassy

7/19/12 - Packet 3 & 4 Instructions Received from Embassy

7/23/12 - Medical Exam Passed

7/27/12 - Interview

8/4/12 - POE Denver, CO

9/14/12 - Wedding #1 (Denver Courthouse)

9/17/12 - AOS/EAD sent

9/19/12 - AOS/EAD NOA1

10/23/12 - Biometrics

1/16/23 - AOS Interview

6/15/13 - Wedding #2 (Colorado)

6/22/13 - Wedding #3 (Moldova)

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Filed: Timeline

protected status cases from Syrians that are in the USA.

how many times do I have to tell you guys this is why there is a huge delay!

Post Decision Activity

On May 15, 2012, we mailed you a notice that we have approved this I821 APPLICATION FOR TEMPORARY PROTECTED STATUS. Please follow any instructions on the notice.

.

Edited by RobbyUSA
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Filed: K-1 Visa Country: Ukraine
Timeline

Some people on the message board have figured out a way to search by case number, not a VJ user's timeline. If I understand their efforts correctly, they have taken the EAC numbers they're given, put them into a spreadsheet and manually typed them in on the USCIS website to obtain 500+ numbers of people who have submitted I129Fs. If you type all of those in manually and see that none are approved and they're all from the service center, it's more accurate.

Yes. Over in the January filers thread we have a spreadsheet that located all the petitions by receipt number. There were a couple of approvals today. But still far below what you would expect right now..End of H1B Fiscal year and Syrian Protected Status apps are our worst enemy. Hopefully things will improve soon.

Edited by Paul86

1/13/12 - I-129F Petition Submitted to Dallas Lockbox

1/18/12 - Received at Vermont Service Center

1/20/12 - NOA1

1/24/12 - Touched

2/09/12 - Touched

8/02/12 - NOA2 (197 Days After Received at VSC)

8/14/12 - Received at NVC (Assigned Case Number)

8/16/12 - Departed from NVC

8/20/12 - Arrived in US Embassy Kiev

8/28/12 - Information Received from Embassy via mail

9/12/12 - Interview (Approved)

9/19/12 - Visa Received via Elin Ltd. (FedEx)

10/05/12 - POE

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Filed: K-1 Visa Country: Philippines
Timeline

Yes. Over in the January filers thread we have a spreadsheet that located all the petitions by receipt number. There were a couple of approvals today. But still far below what you would expect right now..End of H1B Fiscal year and Syrian Protected Status apps are our worst enemy. Hopefully things will improve soon.

Hi,

sorry im not real clear on the whole H1B fiscal year thing, i thought this had to do with specialized work visas? How does this pertain to the I129F or I130 situation? Thanks

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It looks like you figured out where I obtained this estimate from. I took into account a little more in depth about the average month having only 22 processing days. The VSC having 2006 applicaitons and 84 on here... that is roughly 4%. Maybe they receive 92 petitions a day (I can say 91.2 but reality is the number has to be an integer) so we see maybe 4 or 5 filers to fall on the same day in the time line section of this site. So, both calculations are showing the same thing. There are some users on here without timelines. But only 3-5% is the most you can get. I searched online and it looks like this be the largest site for all types of visas, including the 129F. That small sample size has to do.

But whoever said that it could happen that no one in a full week on here gets approved (there is now one person that updated for their 6/26 NOA2)....c'mon.

While the stats estimates are sound; the problem is that you are assuming a process (statistical process that is) that is stable; and it is not. The constant transfers, additions of load (Syrian protected status, H1B fiscal year, the recent Obama decision to grant working documents to a population estimated to be about 800-900 thou; etc. makes this process quite unstable and thus statistics do not apply well. At same time, we are not even accounting for what i'd call outliers: RFEs that require additional processing time.

At best, I'd give that when a service center gets into a 'regular' cycle (about once a year for several months) then, stats might be useful and that is why at times, VJ sampling fits well with actual outcomes.

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Filed: IR-1/CR-1 Visa Country: Belize
Timeline

three days ago they told me they are working on jan 23 and that was two different people.

I understand clearly. I am a January 19 filer and I still have not heard anything from vermont. Last time I called they claimes still working on 6/9. Three weeks and they are still working on 6/9 filers... that is creazy. Dont make any sense at all.

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Filed: IR-1/CR-1 Visa Country: Germany
Timeline

It looks like a whole bunch of people updated their CR1/iR1 timelines today. All of. A sudden we have approvals that weren't there before. The information is only as accurate as people updating the timelines.

12/08/2011 Married

02/06/2012 I-130 Packet sent via FedEx

02/09/2012 NOA1- case sent to VSC!

07/09/2012 NOA2

07/11/2012 case received at NVC

07/27/2012 NVC case number and IIN received

07/27/2012 DS-3032 sent via email

08/01/2012 AOS bill received via email, paid online

08/01/2012 Beneficiary received DS-3032 form via email

08/02/2012 AOS bill shows paid

08/03/2012 AOS package sent via FedEx

08/03/2012 Email acceptance of DS-3032 from NVC

08/06/2012 IV Bill received

08/06/2012 IV bill paid

08/06/2012 AOS package received

08/07/2012 IV bill shows paid

08/09/2012 IV package sent

08/09/2012 AOS package accepted

08/20/2012 IV package accepted

08/20/2012 NVC Case Complete

09/14/2012 Interview date assigned

09/26/2012 Medical in Barbados

10/01/2012 Interview in Barbados

xx/xx/2012 POE- San Juan, PR

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Some people on the message board have figured out a way to search by case number, not a VJ user's timeline. If I understand their efforts correctly, they have taken the EAC numbers they're given, put them into a spreadsheet and manually typed them in on the USCIS website to obtain 500+ numbers of people who have submitted I129Fs. If you type all of those in manually and see that none are approved and they're all from the service center, it's more accurate.

Yes it's more accurate but....

Approx 1800 receipts were received in Jan 2012, it was 1809 it's now showing as 1784.

The 500+ you mention were noted as being all I-129F receipts between the 3rd and the 20th.

That means the other approx 1300 receipts were in only 13 days in the month.

Seems highly unlikely, even allowing for daily variances in numbers, don't you think?

Just a theory :whistle:

In any case there is a huge difference between processing in order and approving in order, neither of which happen.

Edited by Stu4Lee

K-1
NOA1 Nov 25th 2011
NOA2 May 30th 2012 (not a typo, 187 days no RFE)
Left NVC Jun 18th 2012
Medical Jun 28th 2012
Pkt 3 sent Jul 3rd 2012
Pkt 3 rec Jul 9th 2012 (sent before received)
Pkt 4 rec Jul 30th 2012
Interview Jul 30th 2012 (refused for lack of ongoing relationship evidence)
Approved Oct 5th 2012
Visa delivered Oct 10th 2012
POE JFK-NYC Nov 28th 2012
Married Dec 24th 2012

AOS
Package sent Jan 30th 2013
NOA1 Feb 6th 2013
Biometrics Mar 4th 2013
EAD/AP card in production Apr 5th 2013
EAD/AP card in mail Apr 11th 2013
EAD/AP card arrived Apr 13th 2013
SS card arrived Apr 19th 2013

AOS approved Sept 19th 2013 (no interview)

ROC

Package sent Sept 13th 2015

NOA1 Sept 15th 2015

Extension Letter 1yr Sept 15th 2015

Biometrics Oct 15th 2015

RFE Jul 11th 2016

Infopass 1yr extension Aug 26th 2016

RFE response Sept 30th 2016

Interview Mar 15th 2017


"You are lucky we are busy today, we are trying to clear this area, otherwise I wouldn't let you in" - Atlanta CBP Securing America's Borders

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I noticed earlier that there was 1 approval on 26th and 1 denial on 27th.

Both of these had same receipt date as myself of 11/22/2011 though :o

K-1
NOA1 Nov 25th 2011
NOA2 May 30th 2012 (not a typo, 187 days no RFE)
Left NVC Jun 18th 2012
Medical Jun 28th 2012
Pkt 3 sent Jul 3rd 2012
Pkt 3 rec Jul 9th 2012 (sent before received)
Pkt 4 rec Jul 30th 2012
Interview Jul 30th 2012 (refused for lack of ongoing relationship evidence)
Approved Oct 5th 2012
Visa delivered Oct 10th 2012
POE JFK-NYC Nov 28th 2012
Married Dec 24th 2012

AOS
Package sent Jan 30th 2013
NOA1 Feb 6th 2013
Biometrics Mar 4th 2013
EAD/AP card in production Apr 5th 2013
EAD/AP card in mail Apr 11th 2013
EAD/AP card arrived Apr 13th 2013
SS card arrived Apr 19th 2013

AOS approved Sept 19th 2013 (no interview)

ROC

Package sent Sept 13th 2015

NOA1 Sept 15th 2015

Extension Letter 1yr Sept 15th 2015

Biometrics Oct 15th 2015

RFE Jul 11th 2016

Infopass 1yr extension Aug 26th 2016

RFE response Sept 30th 2016

Interview Mar 15th 2017


"You are lucky we are busy today, we are trying to clear this area, otherwise I wouldn't let you in" - Atlanta CBP Securing America's Borders

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