VSC on a coffee break..for the week

[bsd058 296]

I've figured out that somewhere between 3-5% of the filers are on VJ for the I-129F.

I doubt this is true. I would be surprised if even .25% of the population is on this forum. How did you figure this out?

Do you honestly think that its pure coincidence that for an entire week that people who aren't on VJ got approved? Pretty big coincidence if so. I'm quite sure that even one person out of the ~32/wk would be updating their timeline.

It could be. Without a measure of spread there is no way to determine the probability of this.

[RobbyUSA 26]

There are always periods of slow downs due to work load, supervisory and Obama requests slowing stuff down. They will return.

what? well you are part right.

the slow down is due to a HOLD on I-130's and I-129'S

so to make a long story short, you can thank all the protected status cases that cut in line.

VSC sure is busy and getting a lot of work done, but mainly protected status cases, when they are cleared up.

WE ARE NEXT!

proof? just plug in some random case numbers that are close to yours and you will see what I mean!

.

Edited June 28, 2012 by RobbyUSA

[RobbyUSA 26]

try like the last two months!!

Replying to VSC on a coffee break..for the week

So does anybody know what is up with VSC? I mean you all say the people in vermont are doin "this and that" and its just delayed or they are busy doing other things. But does everyone believe they since 6/22 they havent processed ONE visa application?

Has anyone ever seen this happen where was a whole week went by, and not a single I-129F was processed?

[Inky 1,110]

But does everyone believe they since 6/22 they havent processed ONE visa application?

How do you check to see how many visas were approved at the service center this week?

Visas are not approved at service centers nor are they processed at them. Visas are applied for at the US consul and approved at the US consul.

So yes I believe they have not ever approved one visa application. And you cannot check if visas were approved at service centers.

[bsd058 296]

Downloaded the raw data from USCIS website for the Vermont Service Center receipts of I-129Fs in the months of July, 2011 - April 2012. I compared this to igor's list showing I-129Fs sent July, 2011 - April, 2012 as updated in the timelines of VisaJourney.com.

The data shows the following:

438306 I-129F apps were received July, 2011 by Vermont Service Center, but only 116 VJers recorded sending I-129F to Vermont.

490775 I-129F apps were received August, 2011 by Vermont Service Center, but only 128 VJers recorded sending I-129F to Vermont.

417706 I-129F apps were received September, 2011 by Vermont Service Center, but only 112 VJers recorded sending I-129F to Vermont.

417150 I-129F apps were received October, 2011 by Vermont Service Center, but only 107 VJers recorded sending I-129F to Vermont.

446068 I-129F apps were received November, 2011 by Vermont Service Center, but only 100 VJers recorded sending I-129F to Vermont.

442330 I-129F apps were received December, 2011 by Vermont Service Center, but only 115 VJers recorded sending I-129F to Vermont.

554275 I-129F apps were received January, 2012 by Vermont Service Center, but only 124 VJers recorded sending I-129F to Vermont.

651577 I-129F apps were received February, 2012 by Vermont Service Center, but only 126 VJers recorded sending I-129F to Vermont.

661926 I-129F apps were received March, 2012 by Vermont Service Center, but only 94 VJers recorded sending I-129F to Vermont.

499664 I-129F apps were received April, 2012 by Vermont Service Center, but only 84 VJers recorded sending I-129F to Vermont.

Excluding the last two months (because it seems people can sometimes find this forum a little late in the I-129F process), we have an average of about .0244% (.00024) of people who file their I-129F with Vermont actually put their timeline on VJ.

Edited June 28, 2012 by bsd058

[yeppers 3]

But then CSC takes months to send the approved cases to NVC...there are always trade-offs.

[M_&_R 77]

Stats on the percent of I129F filers represented on VJ:

Here is a USCIS report saying they received 4508 I129F petitions in March 2012: http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/All%20Form%20Types/all_form_types_performance_data_qtr.pdf

Meanwhile, I ran the timeline list for each service center, all petitions, to determine how many users entered timelines on VJ for March 2012. It looks like this:

Cali: 95

Vermont: 105

Texas: 34

Total - 234

So the percent of petitions represented on VJ would be (234/4508)*100. It works out to 5.2%.

I was kind of surprised myself!

I agree that you have to know how to use the numbers, and individual date predictions are pretty impossible due to the huge standard deviation in NOA2 dates for any given NOA1 date.

I do think this is a pretty fair representative sample.

I'm using to gauge when the window of approvals for my NOA1 date might begin. And that date has been pushed back 3 weeks already (yes, the VJ prediction) due to the total lack of approvals coming through VSC.

M

[bsd058 296]

Visas are not approved at service centers nor are they processed at them. Visas are applied for at the US consul and approved at the US consul.

So yes I believe they have not ever approved one visa application. And you cannot check if visas were approved at service centers.

See here: http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=6&office=6&charttype=1

[M_&_R 77]

Downloaded the raw data from USCIS website for the Vermont Service Center receipts of I-129Fs in the months of July, 2011 - April 2012. I compared this to igor's list showing I-129Fs sent July, 2011 - April, 2012 as updated in the timelines of VisaJourney.com.

Hey, can you put up a link to the data? We're definitely looking at different stuff. Would love to have the bottom line...

M

[bsd058 296]

Downloaded the raw data from USCIS website for the Vermont Service Center receipts of I-129Fs in the months of July, 2011 - April 2012. I compared this to igor's list showing I-129Fs sent July, 2011 - April, 2012 as updated in the timelines of VisaJourney.com.

The data shows the following:

438306 I-129F apps were received July, 2011 by Vermont Service Center, but only 116 VJers recorded sending I-129F to Vermont.

490775 I-129F apps were received August, 2011 by Vermont Service Center, but only 128 VJers recorded sending I-129F to Vermont.

417706 I-129F apps were received September, 2011 by Vermont Service Center, but only 112 VJers recorded sending I-129F to Vermont.

417150 I-129F apps were received October, 2011 by Vermont Service Center, but only 107 VJers recorded sending I-129F to Vermont.

446068 I-129F apps were received November, 2011 by Vermont Service Center, but only 100 VJers recorded sending I-129F to Vermont.

442330 I-129F apps were received December, 2011 by Vermont Service Center, but only 115 VJers recorded sending I-129F to Vermont.

554275 I-129F apps were received January, 2012 by Vermont Service Center, but only 124 VJers recorded sending I-129F to Vermont.

651577 I-129F apps were received February, 2012 by Vermont Service Center, but only 126 VJers recorded sending I-129F to Vermont.

661926 I-129F apps were received March, 2012 by Vermont Service Center, but only 94 VJers recorded sending I-129F to Vermont.

499664 I-129F apps were received April, 2012 by Vermont Service Center, but only 84 VJers recorded sending I-129F to Vermont.

Excluding the last two months (because it seems people can sometimes find this forum a little late in the I-129F process), we have an average of about .0244% (.00024) of people who file their I-129F with Vermont actually put their timeline on VJ.

Please disregard the above. The raw data wasn't accurate. I don't know what I was looking at. I will definitiely put the raw data on here in about 2 moins though.

Edited June 28, 2012 by bsd058

[M_&_R 77]

Please disregard the above. The raw data wasn't accurate. I don't know what I was looking at.

I was starting to think I was nuts LOL!

BTDT

[Inky 1,110]

See here: http://dashboard.usc...e=6&charttype=1

Those are not Visas. They are petitions to apply for a visa at the US embassy.

You Petition at a service center to be allowed to apply for a visa at the US embassy.

You do not apply for the visa at the service center.

[M_&_R 77]

Please disregard the above. The raw data wasn't accurate. I don't know what I was looking at. I will definitiely put the raw data on here in about 2 moins though.

BTW, already confirmed that at the national level your link data matches what I got at the other link - 4508 for March 2012. I didn't analyze just Vermont. Thanks for the link - will be browsing that!

M

[M_&_R 77]

Those are not Visas. They are petitions to apply for a visa at the US embassy.

You Petition at a service center to be allowed to apply for a visa at the US embassy.

You do not apply for the visa at the service center.

Semantics - we're talking about NOA2s, the "completion" step for USCIS before forwarding to NSC / the embassy / interview stage. Pretty sure everybody knows that. The point isn't who approves the final visa. The point is that there has been a huge slowdown in Vermont on them finishing with and forwarding our cases.

M

[bsd058 296]

The data shows the following:

1786 I-129F apps were received July, 2011 by Vermont Service Center, but only 116 VJers recorded sending I-129F to Vermont.

1993 I-129F apps were received August, 2011 by Vermont Service Center, but only 128 VJers recorded sending I-129F to Vermont.

1733 I-129F apps were received September, 2011 by Vermont Service Center, but only 112 VJers recorded sending I-129F to Vermont.

1831 I-129F apps were received October, 2011 by Vermont Service Center, but only 107 VJers recorded sending I-129F to Vermont.

1809 I-129F apps were received November, 2011 by Vermont Service Center, but only 100 VJers recorded sending I-129F to Vermont.

1601 I-129F apps were received December, 2011 by Vermont Service Center, but only 115 VJers recorded sending I-129F to Vermont.

1784 I-129F apps were received January, 2012 by Vermont Service Center, but only 124 VJers recorded sending I-129F to Vermont.

2149 I-129F apps were received February, 2012 by Vermont Service Center, but only 126 VJers recorded sending I-129F to Vermont.

2295 I-129F apps were received March, 2012 by Vermont Service Center, but only 94 VJers recorded sending I-129F to Vermont.

2006 I-129F apps were received April, 2012 by Vermont Service Center, but only 84 VJers recorded sending I-129F to Vermont.

Average sample is about 6% of the population, showing actually that it is a good sample probably.

Here is the link to the raw data: http://dashboard.uscis.gov/csvfiles/I-129-F_Vermont-Service-Center_Trend-Chart.csv

Try to open it with excel. Minitab doesn't open it properly for some reason.

Edited June 28, 2012 by bsd058