how accurate is the timeline

[brendavera 2]

Based on timeline data, your I130 may be adjudicated between May 31, 2012 and June 12, 2012*.

I'm wondering if any of you know how accurate the timeline here on VJ is? thanks

[Inky 1,111]

Its not accurate. It is an estimate.

[Ryan H 3,819]

Moved from IR-1/CR-1 Process & Procedures to Site-Related Discussion; topic is about the VJ timeline feature which is specific to VJ.

OP, FWIW, the approval of the petition I filed came on the front end of the timeline estimate.

[rade2rising 205]

its highly inaccurate based on my personal experience

last week it said aug 15 to aug 27 and later that week it said july 15 to aug 10 or something like that

right now it says aug 5th to aug 17th

[Ryan H 3,819]

last week it said aug 15 to aug 27 and later that week it said july 15 to aug 10 or something like that

right now it says aug 5th to aug 17th

Dates can fluctuate as other VJ members update their timeline information.

[rade2rising 205]

makes sense

i pray it starts fluctuating to my benefit

[Penny Lane 8,159]

It's only as accurate as VJ's users are. It depends on the users of this site to update with their progress. Some people make accounts and timelines and never update them again, which throws things off. So I wouldn't pay too much attention to those dates - they're a rough estimate, but they're the best VJ can provide.

[^_^ 5,021]

Aggregate timeline data is and always has been garbage.

[TiklingGuy 211]

VJ only represents like 4 percent of the total petitions filed to USCIS. If everyone that filed a petition was a VJ member and had an updated timeline then it would probably be more accurate.

[^_^ 5,021]

VJ only represents like 4 percent of the total petitions filed to USCIS.

Where did you get that number?

[TiklingGuy 211]

I remember reading it from an old post, i think it came from Kathryn, but it was a while ago.

[Captain Ewok 1,900]

There are sound statistics behind the timeline estimates (including outlier rejection, variance analysis, trending, etc.). Last month we had around 150 new I-129f petitions filed and logged into the system. The more we get the better the results. I have considered "sticky" estimates that basically dampen the day to day swings -- currently they are recalculated on the fly so estimates can change moment to moment as new data is entered. This dampening would help to reduce the up/down effect some. Thoughts?

[Penny Lane 8,159]

There are sound statistics behind the timeline estimates (including outlier rejection, variance analysis, trending, etc.). Last month we had around 150 new I-129f petitions filed and logged into the system. The more we get the better the results. I have considered "sticky" estimates that basically dampen the day to day swings -- currently they are recalculated on the fly so estimates can change moment to moment as new data is entered. This dampening would help to reduce the up/down effect some. Thoughts?

I think this is a good idea, simply because the day-to-day fluctuation seems to only confuse and frustrate people.