August 2012 Visa Bulletin Prediction

[PD is Current. 50]

Off topic - ....Why was there a retrogression in 2010?

NO ONE WANTS TO HEAR THE R-word here! :rofl:

[William2535 10]

I SEE THAT ONLY ON 2006 DAY GAVE OUT VISAS CLOSE TO LIMIT. But till 2010 they did not waist visas for I don't now why.i think each year they have 88000 to spend.if im not right correct me plz

in 2010 they only gave around 60 thousand visa!? so they wasted what almost 20K?

[William2535 10]

NO ONE WANTS TO HEAR THE R-word here! :rofl:

I totally agree that no one want's to hear the word "the one who shall not be spoken of (harry potter)". but all this defies logic and common sense with whatever little and data we see! I really don't believe that writing to whoever etc etc.. will make a lick of difference. It is however commendable that people in our same boat have tried doing that.

[Athena June 37]

in 2010 they only gave around 60 thousand visa!? so they wasted what almost 20K?

I am not 100% sure of this, so someone correct me if you have better information, but my impression was that they did not "waste" visas, there simply weren't enough documentarily qualified applicants! It sounds crazy, knowing that the F2A waiting list has over 300 000 people, but it seems that at the time many people were not proceeding with their petitions, perhaps because of financial reasons. Others were still stuck in USCIS when their priority dates became current and therefore they weren't eligible for interview.

As for the August VB, I still want to believe that we will see a 2-2.5 month movement before the end of the fiscal year, so my bet is on 15 April 2010.

[William2535 10]

From June 13th - 16th there is a AILA Annual Conference. Let's see what these guys have to say. May be we can get a better estimate of some sort!

[kas17 0]

From June 13th - 16th there is a AILA Annual Conference. Let's see what these guys have to say. May be we can get a better estimate of some sort!

i can say anything but most impot thing is implement

[William2535 10]

I am not 100% sure of this, so someone correct me if you have better information, but my impression was that they did not "waste" visas, there simply weren't enough documentarily qualified applicants! It sounds crazy, knowing that the F2A waiting list has over 300 000 people, but it seems that at the time many people were not proceeding with their petitions, perhaps because of financial reasons. Others were still stuck in USCIS when their priority dates became current and therefore they weren't eligible for interview.

As for the August VB, I still want to believe that we will see a 2-2.5 month movement before the end of the fiscal year, so my bet is on 15 April 2010.

They are lying my friend! I am not sure if you watch the serial "House MD". It's my favorite. The one thing which He says is "everyone lies," there is no way that almost 220 folks are out of money can't prove what 28k per year or something like that!?

[sweetymistry 6]

AUGUST 2012 f2a visa bulletin :- some date in April 2010 may be 15 April 2010

Crossing ma Figure, Touching wood!!

[William2535 10]

Can someone please explain to me the 7% rule?

Why is there a seperate category for India or china for f2a when they cannot even fulfill the 7% quota??

I can understand for the employment based category but why for F2a?? There are not enough people for these countries??

[RICARDO4EVA2 194]

AUGUST 2012 f2a visa bulletin :- some date in April 2010 may be 15 April 2010

Crossing ma Figure, Touching wood!!

http://www.visajourney.com/timeline/profile.php?id=112465

[Athena June 37]

They are lying my friend! I am not sure if you watch the serial "House MD". It's my favorite. The one thing which He says is "everyone lies," there is no way that almost 220 folks are out of money can't prove what 28k per year or something like that!?

I wouldn't call it lying, although I agree that we will probably never really know the reasons for the low usage of visas in 2010. However, it's interesting to read the the old visa bulletins again and follow the cut-off date movement during 2010 to see what happened:

This is from the January 2010 visa bulletin - the cut-off date was 1 January 2006:

"WHAT ARE THE PROJECTIONS FOR CUT-OFF DATE MOVEMENT IN THE FAMILY PREFERENCES?

Cut-off date movement in most categories continues to be greater than might ordinarily be expected, and this is anticipated to continue for at least the next few months. This is because fewer applicants are proceeding with final action on their cases at consular posts abroad, and the volume of CIS adjustment cases remains low. Once large numbers of applicants begin to have their cases brought to final action, cut-off date movements will necessarily slow or stop. Moreover, in some categories cut-off date retrogression is a possibility. Therefore, readers should be aware that the recent rate of cut-off date advances will not continue indefinitely, but it is not possible to say at present how soon they will end."

This is from May 2010 - cut-off date 1 December 2006:

"E. VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS

Family-sponsored: During the past fifteen months, the level of demand for numbers in the Family-sponsored preference categories has been very low. As a result, the cut-off dates for most Family preference categories have been advancing at a very rapid pace, in an attempt to generate demand so that the annual numerical limits may be fully utilized. If demand for numbers should begin to materialize cut-off date movements may begin to slow or stop."

July 2010 - cut-off date 1 July 2008:

"D. VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE FAMILY-SPONSORED CATEGORIES

There continues to be extremely rapid forward movement of most Family preference cut-off dates. This is a direct result of the lack of demand by potential applicants who have chosen not to pursue final action on their cases, or who may no longer be eligible for status. The rapid movement provides the best opportunity to maximize number use under the FY-2010 annual numerical limitations. Should applicants eventually decide to pursue action on their cases it will have a significant impact on the cut-off dates."

After all this, at the end of the fiscal year in September 2010, the cut-off date moved to 1 January 2010. To me all of this proves that the Visa Office was trying hard to use all available visa numbers, and I wouldn't blame them for failing to do so. They would probably have done better if USCIS hadn't had such a backlog - when I started lurking around VJ in 2009, they were taking two to three years to approve petitions from green card holders. No wonder most people weren't ready with their cases when their PDs became current!

Edited June 13, 2012 by Athena June

[kumbahara 3]

Can someone please explain to me the 7% rule?

Why is there a seperate category for India or china for f2a when they cannot even fulfill the 7% quota??

I can understand for the employment based category but why for F2a?? There are not enough people for these countries??

The 7% rule is the total number of visas issued in any FY for any country does not exceed over 7% total amount of immigrant visas. Note, that includes both EB and FB. And also 75% of F2A does not figure in the FY count of 88000 visas. However at the end of FY - 7% is the upper ceiling. Currently the 7% for India/China doesnt matter since it is same as ROW category, which however may change if there is no country cap on EB visa (HR3012 and its counterparts).

I wouldn't call it lying, although I agree that we will probably never really know the reasons for the low usage of visas in 2010.

That may be semantics, but the fact remains that DOS/Visa Office operates in total darkness and without any relevant data, there is no accountability. For there are more questions than answers about the visa bulletin PD movement and visa issuance

1. F2A has very little Adjustment of Status. Most of its beneficiaries are overseas, meaning they issue F2As majority in overseas consular posts. And Visa office swears they accumulate the visa issuance data and project for the coming month(s). Yet there is not a single piece of information on how many are issued at what location. This is not even available for FY 2011 which BTW ended in Sept 2010. The statistics reported on DOS site is blank - http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/statistics/statistics_5641.html. Wonder why they dont? That report BTW is the ONLY report that we ever get out of NVC/DOS on F2A visa issuance though.

2.Each FY, F2A ideally should be allotted 88K visas, 75% of which is irrespective of beneficiary's country of origin. There is little information either from NVC or USCIS approval statistics in the way of how many are pending at what stages as in the way of showing demand. The visa office's own prediction of movement upto 2.5 months seems off. Plus many petitioners move from F2A to IR1/CR1 status, should they obtain US Citizenship.There is no statistic or transparency on what happens to the numbers.The new FY kicks in Oct of every year adding 88000 visas, yet the visa bulletin remains sluggishly slow, while EB categories makes significant jumps.

Since consular posts, NVC and visa office both come under DOS, they dont want to look bad for their sloppy work and goof ups- thats as simple as it can get. Also, many stakeholders, much like you, throw up hands in the air thinking what can we do? So they dont even care to release any data.

When you operate under a shroud, there is little in the way of what can be understood as to be operating in the best interest of petitioners/beneficiaries. If these bureaucracy is not asked any questions as many of the forum members by claiming nothing can come out of writing to anyone, that becomes the mainstay.

If you care about it, ask about it - There is an organization created by the DHS bureaucracy for it - http://www.dhs.gov/files/publications/gc_1301971419354.shtm#3

[sweetymistry 6]

http://www.visajourney.com/timeline/profile.php?id=112465

Hello.. The TIME LINE IS UPDATED NOW

[jhp 10]

The 7% rule is the total number of visas issued in any FY for any country does not exceed over 7% total amount of immigrant visas. Note, that includes both EB and FB. And also 75% of F2A does not figure in the FY count of 88000 visas. However at the end of FY - 7% is the upper ceiling. Currently the 7% for India/China doesnt matter since it is same as ROW category, which however may change if there is no country cap on EB visa (HR3012 and its counterparts).

That may be semantics, but the fact remains that DOS/Visa Office operates in total darkness and without any relevant data, there is no accountability. For there are more questions than answers about the visa bulletin PD movement and visa issuance

1. F2A has very little Adjustment of Status. Most of its beneficiaries are overseas, meaning they issue F2As majority in overseas consular posts. And Visa office swears they accumulate the visa issuance data and project for the coming month(s). Yet there is not a single piece of information on how many are issued at what location. This is not even available for FY 2011 which BTW ended in Sept 2010. The statistics reported on DOS site is blank - http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/statistics/statistics_5641.html. Wonder why they dont? That report BTW is the ONLY report that we ever get out of NVC/DOS on F2A visa issuance though.

2.Each FY, F2A ideally should be allotted 88K visas, 75% of which is irrespective of beneficiary's country of origin. There is little information either from NVC or USCIS approval statistics in the way of how many are pending at what stages as in the way of showing demand. The visa office's own prediction of movement upto 2.5 months seems off. Plus many petitioners move from F2A to IR1/CR1 status, should they obtain US Citizenship.There is no statistic or transparency on what happens to the numbers.The new FY kicks in Oct of every year adding 88000 visas, yet the visa bulletin remains sluggishly slow, while EB categories makes significant jumps.

Since consular posts, NVC and visa office both come under DOS, they dont want to look bad for their sloppy work and goof ups- thats as simple as it can get. Also, many stakeholders, much like you, throw up hands in the air thinking what can we do? So they dont even care to release any data.

When you operate under a shroud, there is little in the way of what can be understood as to be operating in the best interest of petitioners/beneficiaries. If these bureaucracy is not asked any questions as many of the forum members by claiming nothing can come out of writing to anyone, that becomes the mainstay.

If you care about it, ask about it - There is an organization created by the DHS bureaucracy for it - http://www.dhs.gov/files/publications/gc_1301971419354.shtm#3

my friend kumbahara....i think we cannot do anything bcaz there is no unity in f2a...and one more thing,its digestible that DOS has some formula and acording to that hidden formula they are issueing visas...so if they give any data FOR EXAMPLE they issued 88000 visa this fiscal year,none can prove against it(bcaz the authories have no interest in this issue)....But we continue to try our best...thx

Edited June 13, 2012 by jhp

[kumbahara 3]

my friend kumbahara....i think we cannot do anything bcaz there is no unity in f2a...and one more thing,its digestible that DOS has some formula and acording to that hidden formula they are issueing visas...so if they give any data FOR EXAMPLE they issued 88000 visa this fiscal year,none can prove against it(bcaz the authories have no interest in this issue)....But we continue to try our best...thx

Precisely my point as well, if we as stakeholders in the process willfully turn a blind eye to such non transparency, then for sure nothing will change. True, apparently they use some hidden formula which they decline to reveal, but atleast if enough people who drop a comment every visa bulletin asking topray for them etc send one email to CIS or DOS, perhaps there is a slim chance things can be more predictable and regularized? Its not that we arerequesting for the laws to be changed, just get some accoutability. Only the squeaky wheels get oiled.. Just a thought!