The Balkanisation of Britain?

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Twenty years ago Yugoslavia was dissolving in blood and the world was gripped by the drama of the siege of Sarajevo. Now Britons are beginning to contemplate the Balkanisation of the United Kingdom. Absurd? Well, as Igor Stiks, a novelist and academic from Sarajevo now based in Edinburgh, reminded me, that's what Yugoslavs thought before their own country disintegrated.

No one is predicting that Britain will be torn apart by ethnic bloodshed. But there are several striking legal and political parallels between what happened to Yugoslavia and what may happen to Britain.

First, some background. The pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP) won Scottish elections last year with some 45.4% of the vote. But polls show that only about a third of Scots back independence from the United Kingdom. The SNP is hoping to change that by the autumn of 2014, when it plans to hold a referendum on independence.

Scotland has had a parliament since 1999. England does not. This mismatch, complain some English, means that Scots can, via the British parliament, take part in decision-making in certain areas of English life, such as higher education, while they have no say over comparable areas that have been devolved to the Scots.

The relevant comparison is Serbia and Kosovo. Before Kosovo’s autonomous status was scrapped in 1989 Serbs complained that Kosovo’s deputies in the Serbian parliament had a say in how Serbia was run but that the converse was not true.

There are obvious differences. Scots and English have not persecuted each other in living memory. The English don’t regard Scotland as the cradle of their nation, as Serbs do Kosovo. There are no English or Welsh monasteries in Scotland, or enclaves of Scots in England.

Yet in Scotland I have been struck by how often Balkan references are made. An SNP official explained to me that Scotland was more like Montenegro than Kosovo. He meant that Scottish independence would be a legally agreed divorce that would be followed by relative harmony rather than years of wrangling and tension.

But there would be complicated questions if Scotland seceded. What would be the legal successor state to the UK? The remaining UK, surely? Not necessarily. In their brief period of union after the Yugoslav collapse, Serbia and Montenegro tried to claim they were the successor state to the old country, but to little avail. In the end, all six ex-Yugoslav republics were deemed successor states.

If Scotland leaves the UK, argue pro-independence Scots, it and the rest of the UK would both be equal successor states, as the union England and Scotland joined in 1707 would have been voluntarily dissolved by both parties. The relevant precedent is Czechoslovakia, where both the Czech Republic and Slovakia were deemed to be successor states after the 1993 "velvet divorce".

The dispute may seem arcane. But it matters. For example, would independent Scotland still belong to the European Union? No, say opponents of independence, it would have to apply to rejoin. Nonsense, says the SNP; it would never have left.

Some make another, less flattering Balkan comparison. “Is anyone seriously suggesting that [scotland] be put in a queue behind Albania and Macedonia” to join the EU?, asks Angus Robertson, the SNP’s foreign affairs and defence spokesman. “It’s nuts.”

What about countries like Spain that do not recognise the independence of Kosovo because they are worried about secessionist movements at home? Sir Malcolm Rifkind, a Scottish former British foreign secretary, thinks the SNP are “naïve” if they think there is no problem here. Spain, he thinks, will have every reason to make life difficult for an independent Scotland over issues like EU membership. (The Spanish government has said it would not do this.)

Extraordinary as it may seem, there may already be a Scottish knock-on effect in the Balkans. Spain had lately become less obstructive over the EU's dealings with Kosovo. But, says a diplomatic source, that short-lived period of détente seems to be ending thanks to Scotland’s referendum plans.

One lesson from Yugoslavia is that once the process of disintegration begins it is hard to know how it will end. In Scotland some have begun to wonder about the future of the Orkney islands and the oil-rich Shetlands off the north coast, both of which have a different history from the rest of the country.

What if the islands voted to stay part of the UK and the rest of Scotland did not? Could they break away from Scotland? The idea of an equivalent situation to Serb-run northern Kosovo in the North Sea seems absurd. But who knows?

Equally, I once thought it was the prerogative of Balkan politicians to reach back several hundreds of years to justify their actions today: the Battle of Kosovo in 1389 is a common touchstone for Serbs. But Angus MacNeil, an SNP politician, is happy to trump that by referring to 1266.

Another element is the effect of possible Scottish independence on Northern Ireland, where the history of Protestant/Catholic enmity brings Bosnia's difficulties to mind. Patrick Gregory, a Northern Irish journalist, says that a Scottish declaration of independence would “definitely kick off instability again.”

Perhaps the most vexed question is over North Sea oil (not to mention gas). The UK has rights to 16 to 23 billion barrels of the black stuff still to be extracted. A line demarcates English and Scottish fishing rights. Some 95% of energy reserves lie on the Scottish side.

England, or "the former UK", could dispute the boundary should it feel so minded. Would England and Scotland have to take their case to the International Court of Justice, as most of the former Yugoslav states have at one time or another?

Mr Stiks is working on issues of citizenship in the former Yugoslavia at Edinburgh University. Drawing on his own experience, he says that former Yugoslavs facing independence were told: "Everything will remain the same, you will just get richer." He says a similar message is being delivered in Scotland, with a focus on oil. "They don’t tell you what you will lose."

"Many people here don’t think the Balkan experience is relevant to the Scottish debate," he adds. He notes that while he and his colleagues have been studying the consequences of the Yugoslav break-up, "outside our window, similar processes are taking place."

http://www.economist.com/blogs/easternapproaches/2012/04/scottish-independence-and-balkans?fsrc=scn/fb/wl/bl/thebalkanistionofbritain

[Danno 1,228]

An interesting study is "why" these countries or unions dissolve and what can be learned from that.

Belgium is expected to be the next country to split.

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An interesting study is "why" these countries or unions dissolve ...

Do you have any theories you'd like to share with us?

[one...two...tree 2,762]

Longshanks took care of this problem a long time ago. England 1, Scotland 0

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Longshanks took care of this problem a long time ago. England 1, Scotland 0

Do you have anything substantive to add?

[Danno 1,228]

Do you have any theories you'd like to share with us?

Well you know my usual #######.

To many of us, British-Scottish.... whats the difference?

to them there is a big difference and the things which brought them together so long ago are being overrun by the growing differences and device things.

When this happens, Ethno- nationalism is most often at the very root. Every example offered in the piece is a prime example.

Look at the USSA, when it lost the power to hold those countries together, every one choose to part along ethnic lines. (with those to the South still trying).

[one...two...tree 2,762]

Do you have anything substantive to add?

Yeah, the Scottish are skirt wearing pansies who got their arses kicked by the English. They should stick to blowing bagpipes and throwing horseshoes.

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Well you know my usual #######.

To many of us, British-Scottish.... whats the difference?

to them there is a big difference and the things which brought them together so long ago are being overrun by the growing differences and device things.

When this happens, Ethno- nationalism is most often at the very root. Every example offered in the piece is a prime example.

Look at the USSA, when it lost the power to hold those countries together, every one choose to part along ethnic lines. (with those to the South still trying).

I think you mean English-Scottish, but yes I do understand your larger point and appreciate you sharing it with us.

You could teach Fancypants a thing or two about how to have an actual conversation.

[one...two...tree 2,762]

To many of us, British-Scottish.... whats the difference?

They're both white, right?

[Danno 1,228]

They're both white, right?

It's easier for you when it's simple huh?

[one...two...tree 2,762]

It's easier for you when it's simple huh?

You're the one asking what's the difference, professor.

[Danno 1,228]

You're the one asking what's the difference, professor.

Yeah, thats what I asked.

[one...two...tree 2,762]

Yeah, thats what I asked.

I guess you were never taught the value of personal responsibility since you fail to own up to what you say.

[Danno 1,228]

I guess you were never taught the value of personal responsibility since you fail to own up to what you say.

Why bait me into this pettiness?

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Why bait me into this pettiness?

Why allow yourself to be baited?