May 2012 Visa Bulletin Prediction

[jelaru 6]

Cant wait till next week!

Pd 30 OCT 2009

SAME HERE! PRAYING EVERYTHING WILL RUN SMOOTHLY....ON THE MEDICAL EXAM AND THE INTERVIEW!!!

WILL SHARE THE GOOD NEWS ONCE ITS RECEIVED!!!

[jelaru 6]

Just saw the new poverty guidelines are up for affidavit of support.

WHAT'S WITH THE NEW POVERTY GUIDELINES???

CAN YOU POST THE LINK FOR THIS PLEASE.........THANKS SO MUCH!!!

[cardilene 26]

WHAT'S WITH THE NEW POVERTY GUIDELINES???

CAN YOU POST THE LINK FOR THIS PLEASE.........THANKS SO MUCH!!!

http://www.uscis.gov/files/form/i-864p.pdf

[ashu 1]

PD movement prediction for family preference is as good as any guess. That is why I believe we barely hear any comments from lawyers. Due to lack of transparency from the visa office, Dept of State can cover up its mess with visa wastage or fudge numbers easily.

Some facts on NVC processing however can throw some light on what triggers movement. NVC, processes its application based on a Qualifying Date, a date which precedes the priority date by 8-12 months, by a guesstimate. In short,one can assume, a date which NVC gets a heads up for in order for consulate adjudication. Now, an efficient process is one where an application is not lying around awaiting action and I am sure NVC, wouldn't want case complete applications lying around, especially if the documents have certain validity, which includes tax returns, police clearance etc.

The current processing times released by USCIS is an indication of NVC trying to digest the spate of I-130 approvals for F2A resulting from approvals of approx 1 million I130, stuck in processing. This was generated by the "lack of demand" in 09-10 FY and was reported by 2010 CIS Ombudsman annual report. The lack of demand as suggested seems to be the lack of approved I130, not the application rate of I130 received by USCIS. So a wave of I130s reached NVC (in Nov 2011, DOS reported 322,636 F2A cases pending) and I believe till now and maybe a good part of this year and maybe even next would be task for NVC to get through those, sorting out which ones are active, moving cases who have become citizens, age out etc and getting through to case complete to send to consulates. The pushing back of I130 processing times for F2A is a good indication of it.

As we speak, in Mar 2012, a good 6 months after FY 11 is complete, DOS is yet to issue its annual report on FY 2011 on its family immigrant visa issuance data and a good reason is they are trying to fudge numbers and make their org look nice despite not utilizing the allotted 89000 visas allocated each year, which goes waste if not used in an FY.

Also, by regulation in a FY, the visa office allocates 25% of visa quotas to each quarter. Hence by Mar, end of second quarter, atleast 50% of visa quota should have been used.Not reaching the target would invariably make the PD jump in requirement to get close to the quota in the coming months to FY end in Sept, when the new quota kicks in. A 2.5 month jump in Apr is a fair indication of it.

All considered, processing time in USICS moving to Jan 2011(VSC) and Jun 2011(CSC) for I130 family based, a good year lag time, and an avg processing time of 3 months by NVC, I believe NVC is moving towards getting the PD close to 2 years from the current visa bulletin. Also given that we are coming to the last two quarters of the FY, and NVC having requested documents from beneficiaries for 2010 PD, as late as Dec 2010, there seems to be a strong possibility of movement to cover 2010 PDs in this year. I believe May - Sept would see longer strides in PD movement and hopefully would see PD of Dec 2010 by Dec 2012 visa bulletin. As always, it is a guess.

Such an EXCELLENT analysis and insight into how F2A numbers work. Thanks.

ashu

[jelaru 6]

http://www.uscis.gov/files/form/i-864p.pdf

THANK YOU KABAYAN!!!

[cardilene 26]

THANK YOU KABAYAN!!!

No problem sir,...

Oh and please use small letters next time sir,..

They might think that you're shouting with your posts,...

Cheers...

[michaelangelooo 2]

I hope nvc will complete my case soooon. My pd is now current on april visa bulletin.

My pd is september13,2009. But we have just sent our ds230 and aos lastweek.

Goodluck to all. God bless us all

[Steve visa bullet 17]

Still waiting friends reply about interviews,then we can predicted for upcoming month. May 2012

[F2A 7]

My wife's PD is 9 Feb, 2011 and we got the DS-3032 and AOS forms form the NVC on Monday March 19, 2012..Hope this helps..

I have not got anything till now. Do I need to contact them ?

I am processing through Lawyer. So it goes to the lawyer ?

[F2A 7]

i got mine early today AOS fee bill and choice of agent ..PD FEB 9, 2011.

I have not got anything till now. Do I need to contact them ?

I am processing through Lawyer. So it goes to the lawyer ?

[qasir 17]

my friendif you are processing your case through lawyer you shuold contact your lawyer might be he got it and did"nt communicate still to you because one who has pd later then you got AOSAND DS 3032 why it should"nt be sent to you

[Chittagong 11]

I have not got anything till now. Do I need to contact them ?

I am processing through Lawyer. So it goes to the lawyer ?

For aos you need ti wait till pd current then u file for i485 application.

Sorry thats the different between aos and cp procesing.

[F2A 7]

For aos you need ti wait till pd current then u file for i485 application.

Sorry thats the different between aos and cp procesing.

I am being more confused now. Let me clarify my case. Now I am in H1B and here in US. My wife is permanent resident and she filed for me on 7th Jan 2011. I am waiting to Adjust my status to Green Card.

My PD is 07 Jan 2011. We processed through lawyer. I got 130 approval after 5 months of applying. So do I need to get anything now ?

Edited March 22, 2012 by F2A

[Chittagong 11]

I am being more confused now. Let me clarify my case. Now I am in H1B and here in US. My wife is permanent resident and she filed for me on 7th Jan 2011. I am waiting to Adjust my status to Green Card.

My PD is 07 Jan 2011. We processed through lawyer. I got 130 approval after 5 months of applying. So do I need to get anything now ?

all you need is wait till pd current. You will not receive anything from nvc. The month ur pd current, that month u file for i485 along with ead & advance parole.

[Steve visa bullet 17]

Only wait till your pd becomes current.my lawyer told me usually they sending the rest of papers 3 months before when your pd close to be current.sometimes they sending earlier but it doesn't matter,after you payd everything and complete your case anyway still have to wait for your pd to become current.i now peoples they got case complete but 1.5 year they still waiting for visa becomes available.