May 2012 Visa Bulletin Prediction

[F2A 7]

Trust me when the NVC sends the AOS and DS-3032 forms then the PD is likely to be current in the next nine months or even earlier. I have seen that it has happened to my relatives and to me as well. I got my interview call in less than 6 months after I got my forms a couple of years ago..

Some people try to say that it's the NVC policy to make money and blah blah but it is not true. Only when right time comes then only NVC sends forms. Unless any retrogression happens, you get your interview letter within 9 months after getting those forms. They haven't sent forms to people with PD after June or July 2011 so that proves that they don't randomly send forms.

So if people with PD 2011 have started getting these forms, it is likely that F2A is gonna move forward fast in coming months.

My Priority Date is 7th Jan 2011. I am waiting for AOS through USCIS. I have not got any documents or forms other than i-130 approval. Anyone with PD in 2011 have got such AOS and DS-3032 forms from USCIS or NVC ?

So Let's share their PD who have got those documents. I hope that will help us to predict the flow of visa bulletin.

Edited March 21, 2012 by F2A

[cazy888 3]

My Priority Date is 7th Jan 2011. I am waiting for AOS through USCIS. I have not got any documents or forms other than i-130 approval. Anyone with PD in 2011 have got such AOS and DS-3032 forms from USCIS or NVC ?

So Let's share their PD who have got those documents. I hope that will help us to predict the flow of visa bulletin.

i got mine early today AOS fee bill and choice of agent ..PD FEB 9, 2011.

[kumbahara 3]

PD movement prediction for family preference is as good as any guess. That is why I believe we barely hear any comments from lawyers. Due to lack of transparency from the visa office, Dept of State can cover up its mess with visa wastage or fudge numbers easily.

Some facts on NVC processing however can throw some light on what triggers movement. NVC, processes its application based on a Qualifying Date, a date which precedes the priority date by 8-12 months, by a guesstimate. In short,one can assume, a date which NVC gets a heads up for in order for consulate adjudication. Now, an efficient process is one where an application is not lying around awaiting action and I am sure NVC, wouldn't want case complete applications lying around, especially if the documents have certain validity, which includes tax returns, police clearance etc.

The current processing times released by USCIS is an indication of NVC trying to digest the spate of I-130 approvals for F2A resulting from approvals of approx 1 million I130, stuck in processing. This was generated by the "lack of demand" in 09-10 FY and was reported by 2010 CIS Ombudsman annual report. The lack of demand as suggested seems to be the lack of approved I130, not the application rate of I130 received by USCIS. So a wave of I130s reached NVC (in Nov 2011, DOS reported 322,636 F2A cases pending) and I believe till now and maybe a good part of this year and maybe even next would be task for NVC to get through those, sorting out which ones are active, moving cases who have become citizens, age out etc and getting through to case complete to send to consulates. The pushing back of I130 processing times for F2A is a good indication of it.

As we speak, in Mar 2012, a good 6 months after FY 11 is complete, DOS is yet to issue its annual report on FY 2011 on its family immigrant visa issuance data and a good reason is they are trying to fudge numbers and make their org look nice despite not utilizing the allotted 89000 visas allocated each year, which goes waste if not used in an FY.

Also, by regulation in a FY, the visa office allocates 25% of visa quotas to each quarter. Hence by Mar, end of second quarter, atleast 50% of visa quota should have been used.Not reaching the target would invariably make the PD jump in requirement to get close to the quota in the coming months to FY end in Sept, when the new quota kicks in. A 2.5 month jump in Apr is a fair indication of it.

All considered, processing time in USICS moving to Jan 2011(VSC) and Jun 2011(CSC) for I130 family based, a good year lag time, and an avg processing time of 3 months by NVC, I believe NVC is moving towards getting the PD close to 2 years from the current visa bulletin. Also given that we are coming to the last two quarters of the FY, and NVC having requested documents from beneficiaries for 2010 PD, as late as Dec 2010, there seems to be a strong possibility of movement to cover 2010 PDs in this year. I believe May - Sept would see longer strides in PD movement and hopefully would see PD of Dec 2010 by Dec 2012 visa bulletin. As always, it is a guess.

[Steve visa bullet 17]

I guess we expecting good movement in coming months.i don't now guys,but i have good filings that end of this year,i think they gonna work on 2011 pds

[sky701 19]

My Priority Date is 7th Jan 2011. I am waiting for AOS through USCIS. I have not got any documents or forms other than i-130 approval. Anyone with PD in 2011 have got such AOS and DS-3032 forms from USCIS or NVC ?

So Let's share their PD who have got those documents. I hope that will help us to predict the flow of visa bulletin.

My wife's PD is 9 Feb, 2011 and we got the DS-3032 and AOS forms form the NVC on Monday March 19, 2012..Hope this helps..

Edited March 21, 2012 by sky701

[Mxjoh29 1]

PD movement prediction for family preference is as good as any guess. That is why I believe we barely hear any comments from lawyers. Due to lack of transparency from the visa office, Dept of State can cover up its mess with visa wastage or fudge numbers easily.

Some facts on NVC processing however can throw some light on what triggers movement. NVC, processes its application based on a Qualifying Date, a date which precedes the priority date by 8-12 months, by a guesstimate. In short,one can assume, a date which NVC gets a heads up for in order for consulate adjudication. Now, an efficient process is one where an application is not lying around awaiting action and I am sure NVC, wouldn't want case complete applications lying around, especially if the documents have certain validity, which includes tax returns, police clearance etc.

The current processing times released by USCIS is an indication of NVC trying to digest the spate of I-130 approvals for F2A resulting from approvals of approx 1 million I130, stuck in processing. This was generated by the "lack of demand" in 09-10 FY and was reported by 2010 CIS Ombudsman annual report. The lack of demand as suggested seems to be the lack of approved I130, not the application rate of I130 received by USCIS. So a wave of I130s reached NVC (in Nov 2011, DOS reported 322,636 F2A cases pending) and I believe till now and maybe a good part of this year and maybe even next would be task for NVC to get through those, sorting out which ones are active, moving cases who have become citizens, age out etc and getting through to case complete to send to consulates. The pushing back of I130 processing times for F2A is a good indication of it.

As we speak, in Mar 2012, a good 6 months after FY 11 is complete, DOS is yet to issue its annual report on FY 2011 on its family immigrant visa issuance data and a good reason is they are trying to fudge numbers and make their org look nice despite not utilizing the allotted 89000 visas allocated each year, which goes waste if not used in an FY.

Also, by regulation in a FY, the visa office allocates 25% of visa quotas to each quarter. Hence by Mar, end of second quarter, atleast 50% of visa quota should have been used.Not reaching the target would invariably make the PD jump in requirement to get close to the quota in the coming months to FY end in Sept, when the new quota kicks in. A 2.5 month jump in Apr is a fair indication of it.

All considered, processing time in USICS moving to Jan 2011(VSC) and Jun 2011(CSC) for I130 family based, a good year lag time, and an avg processing time of 3 months by NVC, I believe NVC is moving towards getting the PD close to 2 years from the current visa bulletin. Also given that we are coming to the last two quarters of the FY, and NVC having requested documents from beneficiaries for 2010 PD, as late as Dec 2010, there seems to be a strong possibility of movement to cover 2010 PDs in this year. I believe May - Sept would see longer strides in PD movement and hopefully would see PD of Dec 2010 by Dec 2012 visa bulletin. As always, it is a guess.

Hi Kumbahara, you are silent since long time. at the same time glad to see your posting and very very informative. Many thanks for your detailed explanation on this topic. I am expecting my priority date will be current in some where oct/nov 2012.

[Karen85 2]

Just saw the new poverty guidelines are up for affidavit of support.

[Karen85 2]

Just saw the new poverty guidelines are up for affidavit of support.

I am the Sponsor for the affidavit of support for my sister and her baby, My income is almost enough. (just a couple hundred short with the new guidelines) However I listed my kids since they live with me, obviously I am not the sole provider for my kids, if their father provides child support will this count towards my income. Its been awhile since I looked at the form.

Thanks

[Vishav 3]

I am the Sponsor for the affidavit of support for my sister and her baby, My income is almost enough. (just a couple hundred short with the new guidelines) However I listed my kids since they live with me, obviously I am not the sole provider for my kids, if their father provides child support will this count towards my income. Its been awhile since I looked at the form.

Thanks

Pls tell me abt new poverty guidelines....

Pd 15 oct 2009

[kumbahara 3]

Hi Kumbahara, you are silent since long time. at the same time glad to see your posting and very very informative. Many thanks for your detailed explanation on this topic. I am expecting my priority date will be current in some where oct/nov 2012.

Glad it helps. Based on the threads I see, I believe it be very well valuable to track the NVC Docs Requested as an entry to our F2A watch list. Owing to the good work for cazy888, we have a good list, and adding docs requested as

NAME-----------PD-----------NOA2-----DOCS REQUEST------CASE COMPLETE-----INTERVIEW

helps shed light on the qualifying date, which NVC operates. Qualifying Date (read all about it and NVC operations at http://www.murthy.com/news/n_natvis.html) may be a good and probably the ONLY hard data we can obtain from our fellow users that may shed light on forthcoming visa bulletin's PD movement. My 2 cents.

[zaidkhan 1]

Sister In Law Case

USCIS

Nov 25th 2009 - submit I -130 sister in law case by my brother he is GC Holder Still Green Card Holder

Nov 29th 2009 - Priority Date F2A

Jan 12th 2011 - I - 130 APPROVED

NVC FOR F2A (I-130)

Jan 29th 2011 - NVC receives petition and case # assigned.

Feb 4th 2011 - Receive Ds-3032

Feb 10th 2011 - sent ds-3032

Feb 25th 2011 - Paid AOS Bill

March 6th 2011 - Paid IV Fee

Feb 12th 2012 - Sent I-864

March 10th 2012 - Sent Ds-230

march 20th 2012 - case complete and Case fwd to Islamabad embassy ********

US EMBASSY Islamabad

xxx xxx 2012 - Medical Appointment

xxx xxx 2012 - INTERVIEW IN Islamabad

xxx xxx 2012 - Visa Printed in Islamabad embassy

xxx xxx 2012 - ALHAMDULILLAH VISA IN HAND

xxx xxx 2012 - Arrived in USA

[Steve visa bullet 17]

so what do you think for coming months guys??

[mr.blu 10]

VB for May - December 22, 2009

[pilapila 9]

Cant wait till next week!

Pd 30 OCT 2009

[lighthouse 0]

Your pd was assuuming to be current before retrogression, thats why nvc processed your case. After retro nvc has lots pressure from media and aila, this time they wont make false process.

I hope you got my point.

Well, the retrogression happened in JAN 2011, NVC requested all the documents in March which is after the retrogression. anyway i am sure NVC has their reasons, let's hope our PD will become current sooner than later.