Number of K1 petitions submitted to VSC

[vosnmars 25]

That is really interesting VosnMars. I think it's very possible. Although the popular opinion is that the touches don't mean much, it still makes me feel like my petition is not sitting somewhere idling in a box or something. (Some petitions have been approved without any touches at all). But obviously they were doing something with our petitions those days. My timeline right now is predicting a May approval. I would be happy with that. The attorney I used still thinks it will be sooner. (the earliest possible month being March). I was thinking somewhere in the middle, and maybe if I'm lucky, it would happen in April. But the whole process is very strange to me. At times it seems very arbitrary, so I'm not getting my hopes too high. The fact that some petitions from mid November have been approved at VSC is a good sign though. When I looked through all the timelines from 08, the same thing seemed to be happening. Many of the fall petitions were coming through in 80-95 days and then when winter hit (months of December, January, and February), there were many petitions that were processed in 50-65 days during those months. I would certainly think there are fewer petitions submitted during the holidays (people are just busy and it does take some time to put all this together). So I guess all we can do now is wait and see what happens.

I understand the opinion that touches don't mean much and it has been described as just moving from one side of the desk to the other, but like you said, it does make me feel like something happened. It could be a whole number of things so I try not read into much and take it for what it is, that someone touched the file and that's fine with me. It is nice to see it during the process.

I was hoping for the same approval time and I think it's good to reflect on past trends and patterns just because it gives me an idea of what I could expect and it is helpful information. Also, I thought like you that there might be fewer petitions submitted during the holidays, but I wanted to submit mine at the beginning of the new year and not at the end of December. As a (local) government employee we have so many people gone in our office from Thanksgiving to New Year's for weeks at a time so I just wanted to be past all that for various reasons that I hope could make a difference. Who knows if it will, but all we can do is patiently wait and I will look back at this time to see how it compares. :-)

[P+J 47]

Yes. I think the trends are definitely important to look at. And we'll be able to see how many more timelines are created over the next month or two. If it continues to hover around where it's at now then there must have been a decrease in petitions submitted.

[X Factor 1,112]

I do hope that the volume of application to VSC is light for obvious reasons ... I want my baby to get approved yesterday.

[Moomin 292]

There is one thing you guys are not discussing and that is the impact of the US economy and what that has done on impacting K1 petittions.

Would make sense if there were less petitions in the last year compared to earlier, not just one single month. Sometimes I'd rather look at the obvious. In late October 2010 USCIS lowered the fee, some people decided to wait which made it look as if there weren't that many October filers(September probably too). Right now the obvious is waiting to get tax money back before petitioning if there is a decrease.

A different matter is the backlogged service center, I'm sure that has something to do with economy but reuniting with your better half.. I'd try to find a solution regardless of the economy.

[Gary and Alla 3,694]

That would be like predicting an election by sampling 11 people.

Also keep in mind that VSC processes FAR FAR more than K-1 petitions and the other visas they process could easily double or triple or quadruple. The same people are adjudicating all of them. Also when the K-1 workload becomes very light they often suspend work on K-1s at all and catch up later, this has happened many times. 3 times in the past 3 years that I know of and probably others.

In general though the early spring is the lightest workload. K-1s peak in the late summer and fall after the heavy travel periods (for obvious reasons)

Trying to estimate when you will be approved is uselss. There is no valid way to do so.

Yes. I think the trends are definitely important to look at. And we'll be able to see how many more timelines are created over the next month or two. If it continues to hover around where it's at now then there must have been a decrease in petitions submitted.

Typical for K-1s this time of year. Read the pinned post at the top of the K-1 forum it is addressed in that topic.

[Gary and Alla 3,694]

Agreed!

BUT, some information can still be gathered from seeing about 5% of petitions filed.

I work in marketing and surveying, and most market surveys and political polls are within a 2 - 5% margin of error.. Using sample sizes of no more than 0.5 - 2%

So, IF Igor's list has ~200 petitions 3 months in a row, and then all of a sudden 70, there's reason to believe the actual number too is less than normal.

You're completely right though about numbers not being reliable during the first couple of months. Makes it extremely difficult to use them for predicting anything useful.

Nice formula. How about all the other work they do? They do not do only K-1s. If you are in marketing then you know you cannot guess how many people entered a shopping mall by measuring the people entering ONE store in that mall, but only 1 day in 20.

The figures are useless for any sort of trending.

[Gary and Alla 3,694]

That is really interesting VosnMars. I think it's very possible. Although the popular opinion is that the touches don't mean much, it still makes me feel like my petition is not sitting somewhere idling in a box or something. (Some petitions have been approved without any touches at all). But obviously they were doing something with our petitions those days. My timeline right now is predicting a May approval. I would be happy with that. The attorney I used still thinks it will be sooner. (the earliest possible month being March). I was thinking somewhere in the middle, and maybe if I'm lucky, it would happen in April. But the whole process is very strange to me. At times it seems very arbitrary, so I'm not getting my hopes too high. The fact that some petitions from mid November have been approved at VSC is a good sign though. When I looked through all the timelines from 08, the same thing seemed to be happening. Many of the fall petitions were coming through in 80-95 days and then when winter hit (months of December, January, and February), there were many petitions that were processed in 50-65 days during those months. I would certainly think there are fewer petitions submitted during the holidays (people are just busy and it does take some time to put all this together). So I guess all we can do now is wait and see what happens.

Most often, updates occur when a BOX is scanned. The box has bar codes for each file in the box. scanning the BOX generates a "touch" but your file is still in the box.

Petitions are taken from the box and adjudicated in about 20 minutes. They genrally do not get passed around for checking, if they do it is not a good thing. Ours was never "touched" it just got approved.

Did you get your fiancees educational transcripts and get them translated yet?

[vosnmars 25]

Good information about the touches. I agree that I would not want there to be too few petitions as previously mentioned. I see that all the time in my work.

Certainly my thoughts on all this are by no means scientific and I take it for what it is. This is such a great forum and I am so glad I found it.

[P+J 47]

Thanks for all the info Gary. It's really helping us to get a better perspective on just how this process unfolds. And yes, I will definitely remind her to acquire those translations. Do you know of any reputable services that can evaluate the transcripts when she arrives?

[Gary and Alla 3,694]

Thanks for all the info Gary. It's really helping us to get a better perspective on just how this process unfolds. And yes, I will definitely remind her to acquire those translations. Do you know of any reputable services that can evaluate the transcripts when she arrives?

ECE Google "ECE" there are several evaluators actually but that is the outfit we used and it has been accepted by any universities or employers so far.

Also a good idea to get her medical records and get them translated to give to whoever will be her doctor here, dental records, etc. It will be difficult to impossible to get them when she is here. Also consider to start sending any heavy items, books area good example. Pack them and send them by slow boat now...much cheaper. We were sending and bringing things for the entire 6 month period we waited.

Get police certificates. They are valid for one year at the consulate.

And remember the visa is the easy part, the very easy part. In one year you won;t even remember that part. Life, moving 6000 miles, learning a whole entire new life is hard, prepare for that. You are done with the petition.

[mjaye65 5]

Hang in there Everyone, I was in VSC to the limited time and then the process went from stalled to complete rather quickly.

The journey is worth it I promise.

Good Luck.