Number of K1 petitions submitted to VSC

[P+J 47]

I was playing around with the timeline search feature and saw some interesting trends. The number of K1 petitions submitted to VSC for the months of November 2011, December 2011, and January 2012 seemed to be the lowest in years (at least according to the number of timelines created for those months on this website). I think January 2012 has only 38 timelines created thus far for K1 petitions submitted to VSC. I noticed that during 2008 (another year with far fewer petitions submitted), many K1s were pushing through VSC with times ranging from 45 - 60 days... It was interesting to look at the trends, and I'm curious to see what happens to some of the more recently filed petitions this year.

Edited February 22, 2012 by Paul86

[P+J 47]

These were all for K1s submitted to VSC (just pulled them right off the search function)

January 2008 K1 Timelines Created - 88

January 2009 K1 Timelines Created - 122

January 2010 K1 Timelines Created - 142

January 2011 K1 Timelines Created - 145

January 2012 K1 Timelines Created - 38

Edited February 22, 2012 by Paul86

[Grant PDX 183]

It does look quite a bit lower. However I anticipate that the number will climb, as people who haven't heard of visajourney yet, or people who haven't input their timelines yet, will continue to increase that number.

That said, who really knows how many were sent in . That said, I like to look at those things myself, and tend to give myself a bit of hope when I see things that might be in my favor

Would love to see the waits go down

Edited February 22, 2012 by Grant n Karleen

[uktousa 2]

Grant N Karleen

Just looked at you time line. My application was recd in CSC on 5Th of december and I recd my NOA1 on 7th December. so Lets wait together.

It does look quite a bit lower. However I anticipate that the number will climb, as people who haven't heard of visajourney yet, or people who haven't input their timelines yet, will continue to increase that number.

That said, who really knows how many were sent in . That said, I like to look at those things myself, and tend to give myself a bit of hope when I see things that might be in my favor

Would love to see the waits go down

[Moomin 292]

It's interesting however not very accurate as of right now. Some join VJ after 2-3 or 4 months of waiting around. The number of January 2012 filers will most likely increase throughout the next couple of months IF members decide to fill out their timelines.

[GandK 168]

You can't really use the number of entries created on VJ timeline for anything, it's too unreliable. As said above, some people don't know about VJ, some don't create a timeline and some people find VJ later or even after they are already approved.

The numbers on VJ will likely increase when more people discover the site and create their timeline.

More complete data on new I-129f applications filed each month can be found here, although the data for december 2011 and january 2012 are not out yet.

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=6&office=6&charttype=1

You can see, VSC receives about ~2000 I-129F applications each month,so the numbers on VJ only represent about ~5% of the total at best.

However, I still like to keep an eye on Igor's list, it does give you a good idea what date they are currently processing, instead of calling USCIS and they tell you some random date (like june 16th for the last three months, now it seems to be august 13th)

[didopage 337]

I agree with moomin.

Paul86, if you're interested in trends, you can check out this link: http://dashboard.uscis.gov/ You will have official USCIS data, and it's counting in few thousands of petitions per month, not few hundreds.

Edit: GandK, you got me on that one!

Edited February 22, 2012 by didopage

[Moomin 292]

I mean, I basically became grumpy when seeing my username moving down, down and further down Igor's list everyday because new members added their timelines Grumpy until realizing their petitions were there regardless of filling out timeline or not.

VJ is much more personal and transparent than USCIS has ever been. It's easier to get data from here, esp. when searching for specific dates from NOA1 email to hard copy and similar things. Other than that, I'd go by the link provided by both GandK and didopage.

[GandK 168]

I mean, I basically became grumpy when seeing my username moving down, down and further down Igor's list everyday because new members added their timelines Grumpy until realizing their petitions were there regardless of filling out timeline or not.

VJ is much more personal and transparent than USCIS has ever been. It's easier to get data from here, esp. when searching for specific dates from NOA1 email to hard copy and similar things. Other than that, I'd go by the link provided by both GandK and didopage.

Ha ha I know the feeling!

A month ago when CSC was processing august filers I looked at Igor's list I was like "wow there are only 50ish cases in september and october!, they are going to go through that very quickly!!"

Then as it got closer and closer to september and october, I saw the list keep growing to around 70ish and I became more and more grumpy lol.

[jaycali 415]

You can't really use the number of entries created on VJ timeline for anything, it's too unreliable. As said above, some people don't know about VJ, some don't create a timeline and some people find VJ later or even after they are already approved.The numbers on VJ will likely increase when more people discover the site and create their timeline.More complete data on new I-129f applications filed each month can be found here, although the data for december 2011 and january 2012 are not out yet.http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=6&office=6&charttype=1You can see, VSC receives about ~2000 I-129F applications each month,so the numbers on VJ only represent about ~5% of the total at best.However, I still like to keep an eye on Igor's list, it does give you a good idea what date they are currently processing, instead of calling USCIS and they tell you some random date (like june 16th for the last three months, now it seems to be august 13th)

Agreed!

BUT, some information can still be gathered from seeing about 5% of petitions filed.

I work in marketing and surveying, and most market surveys and political polls are within a 2 - 5% margin of error.. Using sample sizes of no more than 0.5 - 2%

So, IF Igor's list has ~200 petitions 3 months in a row, and then all of a sudden 70, there's reason to believe the actual number too is less than normal.

You're completely right though about numbers not being reliable during the first couple of months. Makes it extremely difficult to use them for predicting anything useful.

Edited February 22, 2012 by jhsm85

[NoneYa 73]

There is one thing you guys are not discussing and that is the impact of the US economy and what that has done on impacting K1 petittions.

[Olga and Jeff 0]

Where are you seeing the "touch" for your petition? On the USCIS website for your case?

I was playing around with the timeline search feature and saw some interesting trends. The number of K1 petitions submitted to VSC for the months of November 2011, December 2011, and January 2012 seemed to be the lowest in years (at least according to the number of timelines created for those months on this website). I think January 2012 has only 38 timelines created thus far for K1 petitions submitted to VSC. I noticed that during 2008 (another year with far fewer petitions submitted), many K1s were pushing through VSC with times ranging from 45 - 60 days... It was interesting to look at the trends, and I'm curious to see what happens to some of the more recently filed petitions this year.

[P+J 47]

Yes. After you input your receipt number, you can sign into your account and view the last updated section which indicates your most recent "touches." And I agree. It may be a little early to pass judgement on just how many petitions were filed in the past couple of months. 38 timelines seemed very low though for VSC in January 2012. Maybe people are slow with joining this wesbite after submission or creating a timeline. But even looking back to the months of October, November, and December in 2011, it still seemed that there were fewer petitions than previous years. The numbers seemed more along the lines of 08. But I guess we just have to wait and see what happens. The numbers may be unreliable right now. I guess if we start seeing more frequent 50-70 day approvals of petitions then will know something is up. It's interesting that some mid November petitions have processed through already.

[vosnmars 25]

I was playing around with the timeline search feature and saw some interesting trends. The number of K1 petitions submitted to VSC for the months of November 2011, December 2011, and January 2012 seemed to be the lowest in years (at least according to the number of timelines created for those months on this website). I think January 2012 has only 38 timelines created thus far for K1 petitions submitted to VSC. I noticed that during 2008 (another year with far fewer petitions submitted), many K1s were pushing through VSC with times ranging from 45 - 60 days... It was interesting to look at the trends, and I'm curious to see what happens to some of the more recently filed petitions this year.

I am also interested in the trends, but what I noticed is that our NOA1 dates are the same and although my "touch" dates aren't posted, they match yours exactly. Maybe our petitions are in the same stack :-)

[P+J 47]

That is really interesting VosnMars. I think it's very possible. Although the popular opinion is that the touches don't mean much, it still makes me feel like my petition is not sitting somewhere idling in a box or something. (Some petitions have been approved without any touches at all). But obviously they were doing something with our petitions those days. My timeline right now is predicting a May approval. I would be happy with that. The attorney I used still thinks it will be sooner. (the earliest possible month being March). I was thinking somewhere in the middle, and maybe if I'm lucky, it would happen in April. But the whole process is very strange to me. At times it seems very arbitrary, so I'm not getting my hopes too high. The fact that some petitions from mid November have been approved at VSC is a good sign though. When I looked through all the timelines from 08, the same thing seemed to be happening. Many of the fall petitions were coming through in 80-95 days and then when winter hit (months of December, January, and February), there were many petitions that were processed in 50-65 days during those months. I would certainly think there are fewer petitions submitted during the holidays (people are just busy and it does take some time to put all this together). So I guess all we can do now is wait and see what happens.

Edited February 22, 2012 by Paul86