CSC Trend Charts

[jaycali 415]

I think Paisaman has been doing a great job of trying to figure out what's happening at CSC, and decided to keep track of trends at CSC month by month.

This post will try to explain why June, July, August and possibly September at CSC got screwed.

Attached to this post is a trend chart showing what has happened at CSC's I-130 department since December '09. It shows how many petitions were received, processed and pending for each month since Dec '09. They're supposed to update these numbers on the 15th of each month, but no update has been posted since November. The CSC is truly a big mystery.

Anyway, from this chart we can see that during the months of May, June and July of '11, CSC was doing really well, completing far more petitions than they received:

May/11: CSC received 19,500 new I-130 petitions, but managed to complete 27,000.

Jun/11: CSC received 20,500 new I-130 petitions, but managed to complete 28,500.

Jul/11: CSC received 16,000 new I-130 petitions, but managed to complete 23,500.

During these months, the total number of pending petitions went from 101,000 in April, to only 72,000 in July!

Every month, CSC completed an average of 7,667 more petitions than they received. Needless to say, they ripped through them!

then, in August, something happened that must have affected filers from June on:

Aug/11: CSC received 20,000 new petitions, but only managed to complete 16,000.

Sep/11: CSC received 18,000 new petitions, but only managed to complete 14,000.

Oct/11: CSC received 18,500 new petitions, but only managed to complete 12,000.

Nov/11: CSC received 18,000 new petitions, but only managed to complete 10,000.

During these 4 months, the total number of pending petitions went from 72,000 in July, and back up to 103,000 in November! Every month from August - November, CSC completed an average of 5625 less than the total number of new petitions received every month. This is what created the current massive backlog at CSC.

Since the USCIS hasn't updated their numbers for December, January or February yet, there is absolutely no telling what we can expect for petitions filed in those months, but sadly, I'm guessing September and october filers may have longer-than-normal waits too.

I'd really love to see an update for December and January though. If you look at the yellow line, it gives an idea of how their backlogs work. The backlog grows for 4 - 5 months, then someone says "enough is enough" and they probably move people from other petitions to work only I-130s to get the backlog back down. Luckily, it seems like once they get their S#!T together and start moving, the backlog is reduced by a lot, in a relatively short time.

For December, January and February filers, I hope/suspect we filed at the end of this backlog. I cannot imagine the numbers getting any worse than they were in November, where they received almost twice the amount of new petitions as they completed. We'll know when the December and january numbers come in. If they look as pretty as the Oct '10 numbers, or the May, June and July '11 numbers, I suspect we can actually realistically hope for 4 month processing times.

In other words. There is little consistency at CSC from month to month. But there is some consistency if you look bi-anually. It seems like they let the backlog grow for half a year, then spend 3 - 4 months drastically reducing the backlog, only to let it grow again.

It looks like the difference between 3 - 4 month, and 6 - 7 month processing times has a lot to do with whether you file at the beginning or end of a "down-curve." As in, you want to file right when they start reducing backlog (yellow curve going down), not while the yellow pendning curve is at the lowest.

Edited February 20, 2012 by jhsm85

[jaycali 415]

I'll have a look through Igor's list tonight and see if I can make out any trends in NOA1 - NOA2 times based on the yellow pending curve, and the difference in petitions received/petitions completed. Would be interesting to see whether there are any significant variations in processing time (months) based on exactly when on that yellow curve you file the petition.

Edited February 20, 2012 by jhsm85

[MCMLXXXII 29]

This is very interesting to observe. So what exactly happened at CSC that their completion rate decreased so rapidly?

[jaycali 415]

This is very interesting to observe. So what exactly happened at CSC that their completion rate decreased so rapidly?

Hard to say. I'm guessing one of two things. It seems like the intake numbers at VSC go up slightly when CSC has a rapid decline like the one from Sep '10 - Nov'10. But it's not enough to mean they just send everything to vermont.

Most likely, I think they switch people around. Say they have 50 employees working I-130 and 100 working I-129s one month. I think that when their I-130 backlog reaches a high enough level, they send 50 of the I-129 (or other petitions) workers to work I-130. So one month you may have 50 workers working on I-130, backlog increases enough, they'll all of a sudden have 100 people working I-130s, but only 50 working.. Say I-129.

That would account for why they can have an ever increasing number of pending applications, and all of a sudden, one month BAM, they double their number of completed petitions. Once the backlog is down from 100 000 to 70 000, they may send 50 I-130 workers back to working I-129 and the I-130 backlog increases again.

Again, I'm guesstimating based on the numbers.

Edited February 20, 2012 by jhsm85

[jaycali 415]

I pulled some numbers from Igor's for every month dating back to Dec 09, and I'll try to add them to the above chart later tonight..

But there seems to be clear trend in NOA1 - NOA2 times based on the combination of new receipts/completed petitions. And it's the people who filed right before a decrease in completed petitions vs a steady flow of new receipts who suffer the most. Filing at a high peak of a "yellow curve" seems beneficial.

For example. People who filed in Sep '10 at the peak of that curve had approvals in an average of 4 months. Those who filed two months later, in Nov '10 when that curve was at it's low had to wait on average 5 months.. This is because in the months following their NOA1, "the yellow curve" went up.

In other words, those September filers could ride the downhill curve, while the November filers that year faced an uphill curve after their NOA1s.

The same exact trend seems to be happening now. July filers waited 6 - 7 months on average, and they filed right at the point where CSCs completion rate was going down, and the "yellow curve" was going up. Hopefully for us November - February filers, that curve hit it's high peak in Nov '11. That way, we'd be riding the inevitable downhill curve to come.

Edited February 20, 2012 by jhsm85

[PhillipGalina 0]

MAYBE the CSC staff had fewer working hours for petition review because they were involved with a training program.

MAYBE the CSC staff is routinely rotated to different forms. Can you imagine a life of doing nothing but processing I-130s for people like us?

MAYBE the CSC staff tends to take its vacation in the Fall.

Who knows? I don't.

[jaycali 415]

Can you imagine a life of doing nothing but processing I-130s for people like us?

I would go crazy!

[jaycali 415]

Ok,

I took the liberty to add a graph onto the USCIS's trend chart. Check it out.

The black dots I added represents months between NOA1 and NOA2. The numbers on the left bar correlate with the number of months, i.e. 20 000 = 2 months, 50 000 = 5 months etc.

The black dots represent how many months a person who filed in that given month waited for their NOA2.

For example, a person who filed I-130 in Dec '09 had to wait 3.1 months on average for their NOA2.

The numbers are based on Igor's list, and include expedites. I am not able to add any month beyond July. Adding August numbers would make this graph flawed as a disproportionate number of August completions are still expedites.

Edited February 20, 2012 by jhsm85

[Paisaman 13]

Nice work..

One of the contributing factors appears to be the number of "other" types of visas the CSC received to process. These appear to take priority sadly, and I think that combined with the holiday seasons affected the speed.

Just my theory.

[jaycali 415]

Nice work.. One of the contributing factors appears to be the number of "other" types of visas the CSC received to process. These appear to take priority sadly, and I think that combined with the holiday seasons affected the speed. Just my theory.

Agreed. Definitely seems to be a priority shift, combined with thanksgiving and the holidays.

We should see a December update on the trend charts soon, I'm (wishfully) hoping by Friday.

[meno-is-mine 37]

Nice data collection/compilation!!! Nice to know I'm not the only nerd in this planet.

I hate the current backlog at CSC. With the new "Aug 2" processing time put on the USCIS website, you can't even make a complaint/ask for a service request if you're beyond your five months. Actually the "5 month" mark is nonexistent now. My five months since NOA 1 is today. For months I was waiting for this day to come so that I'd have every right to call them up... Sadly, we all have no choice but to continue to be patient.

[jaycali 415]

Nice data collection/compilation!!! Nice to know I'm not the only nerd in this planet.

Thanks, I'm a February filer. What else can i do? I have a loooong time to wait lol

I hate the current backlog at CSC. With the new "Aug 2" processing time put on the USCIS website, you can't even make a complaint/ask for a service request if you're beyond your five months. Actually the "5 month" mark is nonexistent now. My five months since NOA 1 is today. For months I was waiting for this day to come so that I'd have every right to call them up... Sadly, we all have no choice but to continue to be patient.

Yea, sadly. I was hoping September filers would be able to at least get their petitions done in 5.5 months. Seems more like 6 depending on how quickly they get August done. Either way, I'm fairly certain you won't end up at 7 months like many July filers.

Edited February 22, 2012 by jhsm85

[sheeshkabelle 153]

You're chart is both depressing me and giving me some hope.

I was one of the unlucky June filers.

I did ask my Congressman to look into our case, and he was told basically what you just explained to us. There was a backlog over the summer and they are working to get it all cleared out. But our case is with an officer now and we should hear something in 45 days. In his letter, Congressman Roe, stated if we didn't hear anything in 30 days to send him an email and he will do what he can.

fyi: it only took 10 days from the day I mailed the letter to receive the reply from my Congressman. He's on the ball!

[jaycali 415]

I did ask my Congressman to look into our case, and he was told basically what you just explained to us. There was a backlog over the summer and they are working to get it all cleared out. But our case is with an officer now and we should hear something in 45 days. In his letter, Congressman Roe, stated if we didn't hear anything in 30 days to send him an email and he will do what he can. fyi: it only took 10 days from the day I mailed the letter to receive the reply from my Congressman. He's on the ball!

Interesting.

For all the rumors here on VJ (attempting to decipher the mystery that is the USCIS is basically what we do lol) that's the first time I've heard a rumor from an actual official source the CSC itself states there's been a backlog. I'm happy to hear that they're aware!

May I ask why your payment was rejected?

Hang in there. It seems like August filers are now receiving NOA2s every day. A congressman making an inquiry seems to often help the case a lot too. If your file is with an officer, is suspect you'll get your good news well within 30 days.

Edited February 22, 2012 by jhsm85

[sheeshkabelle 153]

It is nice to hear something. Anything. CSC wouldn't tell me anything but our petition has been received and is under review. I was starting to think they lost it. Congressman Roe is on the immigration reform committee, so maybe that has something to do with it.

We had sent in a money order and the person that printed it out made it in Canadian funds instead of US funds. I told them three times US funds, but ultimately it was my fault for not double and triple checking before I sent off my package.

We received a letter telling us that the payment was rejected and that we had 14 business days to make a payment by credit card over the phone (there was a number on the notice), or mail in a check or money order in US funds.

We chose to pay over the phone with a credit card.

We then got another letter that our proper payment was received, and our petition was back in line for processing. What the letter did not tell us was that it changed our processing date from June 16th to July 25th. I discovered this after calling USCIS at the five month mark of our first NOA. If you go by our second NOA for the payment, we've been waiting over 7 months.

We had to send in a form so they could release the electronic copy of the money order so we could get our money back.(that was a horrible experience)