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Visa Journey Timeline Accuracy Question

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GoingCrazy2012 Community Regular

GoingCrazy2012   16

Posted
Filed: Citizen (apr) Country: Colombia
 Timeline
Posted

I am wondering and actually questioning the accuracy of the "rough estimates" graphs posted onto this website and I'm started to think they very misleading. How is it possible that we are barely seen approvals on I-130's @ CSC from end of July but the "Processing Times Graphs" for CR1/IR1 I-130's @ CSC states that "I-130's with NOA1 Date of roughly 101 days ago (October 30, 2011) are being processed". ... That is way off! to what is really happening.

I know it says somewhere that those estimates are calculated based on VJ members entries and their personal experiences, but what entries is the site referring to? ... Nobody that I have read so far with a NOA1 date of October has even been looked at. My point is:

"Why bother putting misleading estimates and graphs into this website to make people believe something that is not true?"

Citizenship

6/24/2016: Mailed N-400 package via USPS from Naval Base Yokosuka, Japan

7/11/2016: Received NOA1 dated 7/5/2016

11/3/2016: Received email from USCIS-Seoul Office with Naturalization appt set for 11/30/2016

11/30/2016: Naturalization Interview on Naval Base Yokosuka, Japan. N-400 Approved

12/1/2016: Naturalization Ceremony

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GoingCrazy2012 Community Regular

GoingCrazy2012   16

Posted
Filed: Citizen (apr) Country: Colombia
 Timeline
  • Author
Posted

These are the graphs I'm referring to be more exact:

http://www.visajourney.com/content/ir1cr1historical

Citizenship

6/24/2016: Mailed N-400 package via USPS from Naval Base Yokosuka, Japan

7/11/2016: Received NOA1 dated 7/5/2016

11/3/2016: Received email from USCIS-Seoul Office with Naturalization appt set for 11/30/2016

11/30/2016: Naturalization Interview on Naval Base Yokosuka, Japan. N-400 Approved

12/1/2016: Naturalization Ceremony

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Gosia & Tito Proficient

Gosia & Tito   199

Posted
Filed: Lift. Cond. (apr) Country: Poland
 Timeline
Posted

I am wondering and actually questioning the accuracy of the "rough estimates" graphs posted onto this website and I'm started to think they very misleading. How is it possible that we are barely seen approvals on I-130's @ CSC from end of July but the "Processing Times Graphs" for CR1/IR1 I-130's @ CSC states that "I-130's with NOA1 Date of roughly 101 days ago (October 30, 2011) are being processed". ... That is way off! to what is really happening.

I know it says somewhere that those estimates are calculated based on VJ members entries and their personal experiences, but what entries is the site referring to? ... Nobody that I have read so far with a NOA1 date of October has even been looked at. My point is:

"Why bother putting misleading estimates and graphs into this website to make people believe something that is not true?"

VJ members are likely less than 5% of the entire petition number; and of those, many do not post their times. Thus, statistics are just guidance at best. THe best use for it is to see trends and not specific timelines for your case.

If everyone would collaborate, stats would be better. And again, treat as just indication of trends.

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Matt & Rocio Collaborator

Matt & Rocio   28

Posted
Filed: IR-1/CR-1 Visa Country: Chile
 Timeline
Posted

These numbers include VJ members who had I-130 petitions processed in less than a month either due to expedite requests or in some cases members who reside with their spouse in a foreign country that would have qualified for DCF.

I agree that these numbers can be misleading. It would be nice if an average processing time could be determined that excludes all petitions that were approved in a month or less.

The current processing time for I-130 petitions at the CSC is about 6.5 months.

06/10/11 - Married

USCIS: (224 days)

07/22/11 - Mailed I-130 petitions for wife and step-daughter

07/28/11 - NOA1 for both

02/21/12 - RFE for both (received hardcopy on 2/25)

02/28/12 - Responded to RFE for both(received by CSC on 2/29)

03/02/12 - NOA2 for both(received hardcopy on 3/8)

NVC: (37 days)

03/12/12 - NVC Received both

03/21/12 - NVC case number and IIN received for both & Emailed Choice of Agent for both

03/23/12 - AOS bill invoiced & paid for both

03/26/12 - AOS bill shows paid & AOS Packets mailed for both

03/27/12 - Choice of Agent accepted for wife (sent another for step-daughter via email and express mail)

03/28/12 - Choice of Agent accepted for step-daughter & IV bill invoiced & paid for wife

03/29/12 - IV bill shows paid for wife & IV bill invoiced & paid for step-daughter

03/30/12 - IV bill shows paid for step-daughter & IV Packets mailed for both

04/04/12 - IV Packets reviewed. Checklist issued for Divorce Decree for my wife. Step-daughter's was accepted and her case closed

04/10/12 - Divorce Decree accepted after supervisor review & wife's case closed

04/16/12 - Expedite requested for both cases due to NVC error

04/18/12 - Expedite request approved for both cases and sent to Santiago Embassy

Embassy: (15 days)

04/24/12 - Embassy received both cases from NVC

04/25/12 - Wife went to Embassy for document review. Interview date assigned for both cases.

04/26/12 - Medical Exam for both. Result - approved.

05/07/12 - Interview date for both. Result - approved!

05/09/12 - Received both Visas

05/16/12 - POE Atlanta

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GoingCrazy2012 Community Regular

GoingCrazy2012   16

Posted
Filed: Citizen (apr) Country: Colombia
 Timeline
  • Author
Posted

I agree with your entries and thank you for replying. But what are Stats good for if:

First: They don't represent a sample size consistent with the entire population?

Second: The margin of error of this stats is completely off

Third and Most Importantly: They lead into wrong information are completely misleading?

Citizenship

6/24/2016: Mailed N-400 package via USPS from Naval Base Yokosuka, Japan

7/11/2016: Received NOA1 dated 7/5/2016

11/3/2016: Received email from USCIS-Seoul Office with Naturalization appt set for 11/30/2016

11/30/2016: Naturalization Interview on Naval Base Yokosuka, Japan. N-400 Approved

12/1/2016: Naturalization Ceremony

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GoingCrazy2012 Community Regular

GoingCrazy2012   16

Posted
Filed: Citizen (apr) Country: Colombia
 Timeline
  • Author
Posted

Visa Journey should seriously consider either to remove those "misleading" processing times estimate graphs or generating them in a way that they don't include expedite approvals which throws everything out of a real proportion.

Citizenship

6/24/2016: Mailed N-400 package via USPS from Naval Base Yokosuka, Japan

7/11/2016: Received NOA1 dated 7/5/2016

11/3/2016: Received email from USCIS-Seoul Office with Naturalization appt set for 11/30/2016

11/30/2016: Naturalization Interview on Naval Base Yokosuka, Japan. N-400 Approved

12/1/2016: Naturalization Ceremony

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VanessaTony Grand Master

VanessaTony   3,567

Posted
Filed: Citizen (apr) Country: Australia
 Timeline
Posted

Estimates are based on people actually filling in their timelines properly.

Aussie K1 process - http://www.visajourney.com/forums/topic/206016-australian-beneficiaries-packet-3-to-interview-date/
AOS, EAD & AP - the Aussie Way (including document list) - http://www.visajourney.com/forums/topic/235331-aos-ead-ap-from-k1-the-aussie-way-doc-list-included/
ROC April 2012 - http://www.visajourney.com/forums/topic/358760-i-751-april-2012-filers/ (includes document list)
N-400 April 2013 - http://www.visajourney.com/forums/topic/412738-n-400-april-2013-filers/ (includes document list)

N-400 Interview review - http://www.visajourney.com/forums/topic/412738-n-400-april-2013-filers/?p=6381814

N-400 Oath Ceremony review - http://www.visajourney.com/forums/topic/412738-n-400-april-2013-filers/?p=6537699
Aussie Chat page continued - http://www.visajourney.com/forums/topic/331922-new-2011-land-downunder-aussie-aussie-aussie-oi-oi-oi/
Aussie Name Change on Passport Process - http://www.visajourney.com/forums/topic/248400-australian-passport-name-change-process/
Travel on maiden name passport with married name GC, tickets in married name - http://www.visajourney.com/forums/topic/183541-land-downunder-aussie-aussie-aussie-oi-oi-oi/page__view__findpost__p__4135806
Shipping Costs from Aus to US - http://www.visajourney.com/forums/topic/293179-shipping-costs-aus-to-usa/

Notes:
- For my "standard" timeline please see timeline to the left
- For timeline with Aussie specifics & more detailed info, please see the "About Me" section of my profile

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gogo Proficient

gogo   6

Posted
Filed: IR-1/CR-1 Visa Country: China
 Timeline
Posted

It was sure misleading for me.. :whistle: but looks like usually about 5-6 months.. if not, that do what I did. :star:

I-130 STAGE 1 : 533 days - 1 year 6 months (4/16/2007 to 9/22/2008)

Priority Date I-130 : 4/16/2007 ( 533 days , APPROVED 9/22/2008)
Transferred to local office based on "security checks" : 11/27/2007
wrote hundreds of letters - received letter from FBI Records Management Chief stating no security checks
local office interview : 2/21/2008 - brought my parents too (result : you will get approval within 2-3 weeks)
5/2/2008 - (lawsuit) Writ of Mandamus - OFFICIAL DATE (7/29/2008)
9/22/2008 - CALL AND EMAIL COPY OF APPROVAL NOTICE FROM LAWYER

NVC STAGE 2 : 99 days - 3 months (9/30/2008 to 1/7/2009)
NVC Received : 9/30/2008
Received Packet 3 (I-864/DS-230) : 11/10/2008
NVC says "RFE sent out 12/9/08 for missing documents" : 12/10/2008
CASE COMPLETE - 1/7/2009

CONSULATE STAGE 3 : 96 days - 3 months (1/8/2009 to 4/14/2009)
CLEARED CUSTOMS - 3/10/2009
**APPOINTMENT DATE : 4/14/2009, 7:15AM**
** BLUE SLIP **

AP STAGE 4 : 97 days - 3 months (4/14/2009 to 7/20/2009)
DOS call to receive I-601 (Waiver of Grounds for Inadmissibility - basically denial) from Guangzhou : 6/24/2009

REMOVAL OF I-601 due to my letters to the USCIS Director, Michael Aytes: 6/29/2009
CALL-IN LETTER NOTIFIED : 7/8/2009
CALL-IN LETTER (APPROVAL)!! : 7/16/2009
ALL DONE!! (got both GREEN CARD & SSN CARD) : 10/1/2009

"http://www.visajourney.com/forums/topic/194075-feel-like-a-cr-1-csc-castaway/page-60" (pages 53-63) for more updates and letter I wrote to Director Michael Aytes and his replies and back and forth..

HER PARENTS - 10 months so far

I-130 Sent In : 1/7/2013

I-130 Approval : 3/28/2013

Transfer to NVC : 6/12/2013

Case Complete : 8/25/2013

"Ready for Interview" (Ready to wait for 1-3 Months, this is official NVC letter transfer date) : 9/9/2013

DHL Tracking : arrived 9/24/2013

P4 Letter : 11/21/2013

Interview Date : 12/9/2013, originally 12/3, stupid lawyer filled out her dad's passport number wrong..

Interview Passed : 12/9/2013

Visa "Issued" on CEAC : 12/10/2013

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Matt & Rocio Collaborator

Matt & Rocio   28

Posted
Filed: IR-1/CR-1 Visa Country: Chile
 Timeline
Posted

Visa Journey should seriously consider either to remove those "misleading" processing times estimate graphs or generating them in a way that they don't include expedite approvals which throws everything out of a real proportion.

I stopped paying attention to those once I figured out that they included expedites. I find the most useful information to be checking the Timelines and sorting by NOA2 date with the most recent first. With this you can get a good idea of what date range is currently being processed. For example if you look now it is pretty clear that CSC is working July 20-27, 2011.

06/10/11 - Married

USCIS: (224 days)

07/22/11 - Mailed I-130 petitions for wife and step-daughter

07/28/11 - NOA1 for both

02/21/12 - RFE for both (received hardcopy on 2/25)

02/28/12 - Responded to RFE for both(received by CSC on 2/29)

03/02/12 - NOA2 for both(received hardcopy on 3/8)

NVC: (37 days)

03/12/12 - NVC Received both

03/21/12 - NVC case number and IIN received for both & Emailed Choice of Agent for both

03/23/12 - AOS bill invoiced & paid for both

03/26/12 - AOS bill shows paid & AOS Packets mailed for both

03/27/12 - Choice of Agent accepted for wife (sent another for step-daughter via email and express mail)

03/28/12 - Choice of Agent accepted for step-daughter & IV bill invoiced & paid for wife

03/29/12 - IV bill shows paid for wife & IV bill invoiced & paid for step-daughter

03/30/12 - IV bill shows paid for step-daughter & IV Packets mailed for both

04/04/12 - IV Packets reviewed. Checklist issued for Divorce Decree for my wife. Step-daughter's was accepted and her case closed

04/10/12 - Divorce Decree accepted after supervisor review & wife's case closed

04/16/12 - Expedite requested for both cases due to NVC error

04/18/12 - Expedite request approved for both cases and sent to Santiago Embassy

Embassy: (15 days)

04/24/12 - Embassy received both cases from NVC

04/25/12 - Wife went to Embassy for document review. Interview date assigned for both cases.

04/26/12 - Medical Exam for both. Result - approved.

05/07/12 - Interview date for both. Result - approved!

05/09/12 - Received both Visas

05/16/12 - POE Atlanta

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GoingCrazy2012 Community Regular

GoingCrazy2012   16

Posted
Filed: Citizen (apr) Country: Colombia
 Timeline
  • Author
Posted

I stopped paying attention to those once I figured out that they included expedites. I find the most useful information to be checking the Timelines and sorting by NOA2 date with the most recent first. With this you can get a good idea of what date range is currently being processed. For example if you look now it is pretty clear that CSC is working July 20-27, 2011.

So your NOA2 should be coming up soon. That's awesome. I guess we all have to pay the painful price of having to be away for so long from our spouses. Just looking for some encouragement since I'm just starting the process.

Citizenship

6/24/2016: Mailed N-400 package via USPS from Naval Base Yokosuka, Japan

7/11/2016: Received NOA1 dated 7/5/2016

11/3/2016: Received email from USCIS-Seoul Office with Naturalization appt set for 11/30/2016

11/30/2016: Naturalization Interview on Naval Base Yokosuka, Japan. N-400 Approved

12/1/2016: Naturalization Ceremony

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skiptex Proficient

skiptex   225

Posted
Filed: AOS (apr) Country: Venezuela
 Timeline
Posted

i think you posted in the wrong section.. this has nothing to a visa..

just your disapproval of VJ function..

ps.. what matters is your form is processing.. and it will happen when it happens..

K101/17/2012.....I-129F ..... sent to Dallas, Texas

01/25/2012.....NOA1 (text & email) ..... sent to Vermont Service Center

01/28/2012.....NOA1 Hard Copy in Mail

07/31/2012.....NOA2.. 188 days update@USCIS

08/03/2012.....NOA2.. Hard Copy

09/04/2012.....Sent Email to Caracas Embassy for Interview date.. they had not contacted her

09/05/2012.....Embassy response.. with interview date!!

10/17/2012.....INTERVIEW @Caracas Embassy!

10/17/2012.....INTERVIEW @Caracas Embassy... APPROVED!!

12/31/2012.....POE.. Miami, arrived to AUSTIN next day smile.png

02/16/2013.....Married!!

AOS - K1

05/06/2013.....I-465 & I-765 sent USPS priority mail

05/14/2013......Email, Text of Receiving package on 5/11

05/16/2013......Hard Copy of NOA1 received: I-465 and _I-765 Application for employment

05/20/2013...... Bio-metric hard-copy.
05/29/2013...... Biometric scheduled. . Austin office

07/15/2013...... EAD card arrived in mail today smile.png

10/20/2013...... Green Card approved! NOA hardcopy received!

10/31/2013...... Green Card Delivered!!

ROC-I-751
07/21/15 90 day Window Opens

07/24/15 I-751 Mailed to Cali. Service Center
09/03/15 Biometeric scheduled and completed

01/26/16 ROC Letter arrived
01/30/16 10 yr Green Card arrived

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GoingCrazy2012 Community Regular

GoingCrazy2012   16

Posted
Filed: Citizen (apr) Country: Colombia
 Timeline
  • Author
Posted

i think you posted in the wrong section.. this has nothing to a visa..

just your disapproval of VJ function..

ps.. what matters is your form is processing.. and it will happen when it happens..

And I guess you're petitioning for a "Fiancee's visa" but you're commenting on a "Spouse's Visa" forum, so that makes you wrong too for sticking your nose where you shouldn't.

i think you posted in the wrong section.. this has nothing to a visa..

just your disapproval of VJ function..

ps.. what matters is your form is processing.. and it will happen when it happens..

"it will happen when it happens" ... you couldn't have been more rude with your comment. Thanks and back to you buddy!

Citizenship

6/24/2016: Mailed N-400 package via USPS from Naval Base Yokosuka, Japan

7/11/2016: Received NOA1 dated 7/5/2016

11/3/2016: Received email from USCIS-Seoul Office with Naturalization appt set for 11/30/2016

11/30/2016: Naturalization Interview on Naval Base Yokosuka, Japan. N-400 Approved

12/1/2016: Naturalization Ceremony

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skiptex Proficient

skiptex   225

Posted
Filed: AOS (apr) Country: Venezuela
 Timeline
  • Popular Post
Posted

And I guess you're petitioning for a "Fiancee's visa" but you're commenting on a "Spouse's Visa" forum, so that makes you wrong too for sticking your nose where you shouldn't.

ooh.. my bad! :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

"it will happen when it happens" ... you couldn't have been more rude with your comment. Thanks and back to you buddy!

its not rude.. it called being patient.. thats all that is.. there is no need to get hostile, it will only make your wait more intolerable and make you even more bitter.. :yes:

just be patient, it will HAPPEN WHEN IT HAPPENS

K101/17/2012.....I-129F ..... sent to Dallas, Texas

01/25/2012.....NOA1 (text & email) ..... sent to Vermont Service Center

01/28/2012.....NOA1 Hard Copy in Mail

07/31/2012.....NOA2.. 188 days update@USCIS

08/03/2012.....NOA2.. Hard Copy

09/04/2012.....Sent Email to Caracas Embassy for Interview date.. they had not contacted her

09/05/2012.....Embassy response.. with interview date!!

10/17/2012.....INTERVIEW @Caracas Embassy!

10/17/2012.....INTERVIEW @Caracas Embassy... APPROVED!!

12/31/2012.....POE.. Miami, arrived to AUSTIN next day smile.png

02/16/2013.....Married!!

AOS - K1

05/06/2013.....I-465 & I-765 sent USPS priority mail

05/14/2013......Email, Text of Receiving package on 5/11

05/16/2013......Hard Copy of NOA1 received: I-465 and _I-765 Application for employment

05/20/2013...... Bio-metric hard-copy.
05/29/2013...... Biometric scheduled. . Austin office

07/15/2013...... EAD card arrived in mail today smile.png

10/20/2013...... Green Card approved! NOA hardcopy received!

10/31/2013...... Green Card Delivered!!

ROC-I-751
07/21/15 90 day Window Opens

07/24/15 I-751 Mailed to Cali. Service Center
09/03/15 Biometeric scheduled and completed

01/26/16 ROC Letter arrived
01/30/16 10 yr Green Card arrived

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skiptex Proficient

skiptex   225

Posted
Filed: AOS (apr) Country: Venezuela
 Timeline
Posted

PS.. thanks MOD for MOVING and MERGING topics into correct place.. :thumbs:

K101/17/2012.....I-129F ..... sent to Dallas, Texas

01/25/2012.....NOA1 (text & email) ..... sent to Vermont Service Center

01/28/2012.....NOA1 Hard Copy in Mail

07/31/2012.....NOA2.. 188 days update@USCIS

08/03/2012.....NOA2.. Hard Copy

09/04/2012.....Sent Email to Caracas Embassy for Interview date.. they had not contacted her

09/05/2012.....Embassy response.. with interview date!!

10/17/2012.....INTERVIEW @Caracas Embassy!

10/17/2012.....INTERVIEW @Caracas Embassy... APPROVED!!

12/31/2012.....POE.. Miami, arrived to AUSTIN next day smile.png

02/16/2013.....Married!!

AOS - K1

05/06/2013.....I-465 & I-765 sent USPS priority mail

05/14/2013......Email, Text of Receiving package on 5/11

05/16/2013......Hard Copy of NOA1 received: I-465 and _I-765 Application for employment

05/20/2013...... Bio-metric hard-copy.
05/29/2013...... Biometric scheduled. . Austin office

07/15/2013...... EAD card arrived in mail today smile.png

10/20/2013...... Green Card approved! NOA hardcopy received!

10/31/2013...... Green Card Delivered!!

ROC-I-751
07/21/15 90 day Window Opens

07/24/15 I-751 Mailed to Cali. Service Center
09/03/15 Biometeric scheduled and completed

01/26/16 ROC Letter arrived
01/30/16 10 yr Green Card arrived

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Ban Hammer Grand Master

Ban Hammer   13,343

Posted
Filed: Citizen (apr) Country: Brazil
 Timeline
Posted

duplicate threads have been merged - please do not post multiple threads on the same topic.

* ~ * Charles * ~ *
 

I carry a gun because a cop is too heavy.

 

USE THE REPORT BUTTON INSTEAD OF MESSAGING A MODERATOR!

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