Job market deals decisive blow to Food Stamp President

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

January jobs report: Hiring ramps up, unemployment falls

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- American employers substantially stepped up their hiring in January, bringing the unemployment rate down for the fifth month in a row.

Employers added 243,000 jobs in January, the Labor Department reported Friday, marking a pick-up in hiring from December, when the economy added 203,000 jobs.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell to 8.3%. That is the lowest since February 2009.

Job growth was much stronger than expected. Economists surveyed by CNNMoney had forecast 130,000 jobs added in the month, and that the unemployment rate likely ticked up to 8.6%.

"This is an optimistic jobs report, especially in light of very poor jobs reports for almost three years," said Brian Hamilton, CEO of Sageworks, a financial information company. "We don't know if the positive jobs trend will continue, but it is definitely a good trend."

The encouraging news was coupled with revisions to the Labor Department's data, showing the economy added 180,000 more jobs than originally thought in 2011.

Private businesses have been adding jobs consistently since March 2010. In January, they added 257,000 jobs.

But the government has been bleeding jobs since the middle of 2010, and continued to do so last month. Most of the recent job losses have been at the state and local level. Overall, the public sector cut 14,000 jobs in January.

The job market has a long way to go to fully recover from the financial crisis. The economy still needs to add about 5.6 million jobs to get back to 2008 employment levels.

Edited February 3, 2012 by Mr. Big Dog

[luckytxn 2,264]

Record 1.2 Million People Fall Out Of Labor Force In One Month, Labor Force Participation Rate Tumbles To Fresh 30 Year Low

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/03/2012 08:51 -0500

• BLS
• Bureau of Labor Statistics
• Unemployment
• Withholding taxes

A month ago, we joked when we said that for Obama to get the unemployment rate to negative by election time, all he has to do is to crush the labor force participation rate to about 55%. Looks like the good folks at the BLS heard us: it appears that the people not in the labor force exploded by an unprecedented record 1.2 million. No, that's not a typo: 1.2 million people dropped out of the labor force in one month! So as the labor force increased from 153.9 million to 154.4 million, the non institutional population increased by 242.3 million meaning, those not in the labor force surged from 86.7 million to 87.9 million. Which means that the civilian labor force tumbled to a fresh 30 year low of 63.7% as the BLS is seriously planning on eliminating nearly half of the available labor pool from the unemployment calculation. As for the quality of jobs, as withholding taxes roll over Year over year, it can only mean that the US is replacing high paying FIRE jobs with low paying construction and manufacturing. So much for the improvement.

Chart below shows it all - that jump is not a fat finger!

And Labor Force Participation:

This is the largest absolute jump in 'Persons Not In Labor Force' on record...and biggest percentage jump in 30 years.

Chart: Bloomberg

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

The labor force participation rate will continue to decline as the population ages. It's very simple math taking into account that the older brackets always have had a much lower than average rate. As that part of the population grows relative to the overall population, the overall labor force participation rate will continue to decline. Not sure why anyone would be surprised about this trend knowing where our demographics are headed.

[SMOKE 1,426]

i'm dizzy from the spin.

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

There's only one spin in this thread yet. It's less spin than ignorance of the effect our demographic changes have on the labor force participation rate. No reason to get dizzy.

[^_^ 5,021]

The labor force participation rate will continue to decline as the population ages. It's very simple math taking into account that the older brackets always have had a much lower than average rate. As that part of the population grows relative to the overall population, the overall labor force participation rate will continue to decline. Not sure why anyone would be surprised about this trend knowing where our demographics are headed.

Fair point but is there anything in the BLS data that would indicate how the "dropped out" folk break down by age? I haven't looked yet but since you're making the point I assume you have.

[SMOKE 1,426]

n/m \ said it.

Edited February 3, 2012 by SMOKE

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

Fair point but is there anything in the BLS data that would indicate how the "dropped out" folk break down by age? I haven't looked yet but since you're making the point I assume you have.

I've looked at it on a more general level. Not sure why this should require extensive examination. The trend is very clear: labor force participation rates have gone down since 2000. And this trend will continue for quite some time. This is not surprising seeing that labor force participation rates decrease for the population starting with the 50-54 age bracket. This has long been the case as the graph shows. The oldest baby boomers are 66 years old now, the youngest are 48. It is clear, then, that the labor force participation rate of the baby boomers overall is on the decline and will be for the next few decades. The baby boomers making up such a significant amount of the population and still making up such a significant part of the labor force, it would be quite unreasonable to expect the labor participation rate to hold steady let alone increase over the next couple of decades. Unless we get rid of Social Security and force grandma and grandpa back to work.

Edited February 3, 2012 by Mr. Big Dog

[slim 1,525]

I've looked at it on a more general level. Not sure why this should require extensive examination. The trend is very clear: labor force participation rates have gone down since 2000. And this trend will continue for quite some time. This is not surprising seeing that labor force participation rates decrease for the population starting with the 50-54 age bracket. This has long been the case as the graph shows. The oldest baby boomers are 66 years old now, the youngest are 48. It is clear, then, that the labor force participation rate of the baby boomers overall is on the decline and will be for the next few decades. The baby boomers making up such a significant amount of the population and still making up such a significant part of the labor force, it would be quite unreasonable to expect the labor participation rate to hold steady let alone increase over the next couple of decades. Unless we get rid of Social Security and force grandma and grandpa back to work.

So, basically Bush timed it just right. He eliminated all the jobs right about the time many people were retiring.

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

So, basically Bush timed it just right. He eliminated all the jobs right about the time many people were retiring.

Certainly. The effects that the country's age democraphic has on the overall labor force participation rate certainly helped the unemployment rate. The low unemployment rate during the first years of the 21st century are hard to explain without that effect seeing that actual job creation during the same time has been dysmal.

[luckytxn 2,264]

So, basically Bush timed it just right. He eliminated all the jobs right about the time many people were retiring.

Surprised no one caught this little gem.

BLS is seriously planning on eliminating nearly half of the available labor pool from the unemployment calculation.

Can any guess why they will do this and when?

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

BLS is seriously planning on eliminating nearly half of the available labor pool from the unemployment calculation.

So BLS is to blame for the baby boomers starting to retire? That's an interesting point of view.

[Leatherneck 693]

Surprised no one caught this little gem.

BLS is seriously planning on eliminating nearly half of the available labor pool from the unemployment calculation.

Can any guess why they will do this and when?

Yes! And the talking heads will cover the rear flank by painting a rosy picture of the economy.

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

Januarys drop in the jobless rate also came as more people began looking for work. Thats especially encouraging because, for the rate to go down, a larger number had to have found work.

Many economists have warned that the jobless rate could rise again this year as discouraged workers resumed their job hunt; until they land a position, theyre counted as unemployed, which tends to boost the jobless rate until they get hired. That didn't happen in January, which means jobs are being created even faster than discourage workers are returning to the labor force.

Forecasters were surprised by just how fast the employment data have improved; as of last month, the jobless rate has fallen by eight-tenths of a point in just five months.

...

The Commerce Department said factory orders rose 1.1 percent in December, supported by a rebound in orders for heavy machinery, after a 2.2 percent gain in November. For the year, total orders were up 12.1 percent following a gain of 12.9 percent in 2010...

The Institute for Supply Management says its index of non-manufacturing activity jumped to 56.8 percent in January from 53 percent in December. Any reading above 50 indicates expansion.

...

State and local finances have begun to turn around as the improvement in the overall job market and the economy has boosted incomes and has helped sales tax receipts to recover.

...

The stock market has already begun placing bets that strong growth is taking hold; the Standard & Poor's 500 index has risen 6.5 percent in the last four weeks. Stock prices jumped sharply on Friday’s jobs data; the S&P 500 index added another 1.3 percent, on track for its fifth straight weekly gain.

Edited February 3, 2012 by Mr. Big Dog

[Hilarious Clinton 452]

Record 1.2 Million People Fall Out Of Labor Force In One Month, Labor Force Participation Rate Tumbles To Fresh 30 Year Low

Truly an inconvenient truth.