01/06/12: Time/CNN/ORC poll in SC: Romney 37, Santorum 19, Gingrich 18

[웃 910]

If the results of the latest Rasmussen poll were good news for Mitt Romney, then these results from Time/CNN/ORC are really good news. Romney doesn't merely lead, he vastly outstrips his competitors.

The poll, which surveyed likely primary voters on Wednesday and Thursday, found Romney commanding 37% support, a 17-point gain since early December. He's not the only one carrying momentum out of Iowa's photo finish. Rick Santorum has surged 15 points to 19%, picking up the largest chunk of Newt Gingrich's shattered coalition. The former Speaker is still in the hunt with 18%, but that's down from 43% in December.

Ron Paul's share has doubled to 12%, while Rick Perry's has dwindled to a mere 5%.

The new data, which come a little more than two weeks before the Palmetto primary, confirm the broader contours of the GOP race. Romney's solid position is strengthened by the splintering effect produced by his rivals–his 37% support is equal to that of Santorum's and Gingrich's combined. The largest remaining threat to Romney is a conservative bloc coalesced behind one candidate.

Note that Romney's support in this poll is more than Santorum's and Gingrich's combined. As Time put it, "For now, everything is coming up Romney." If Santorum and Gingrich are serious that they want to team up against Romney, now would definitely be the time. Indeed, if Gingrich does go crazy on offense against Mitt in New Hampshire, then that could significantly help Santorum in South Carolina.

The crosstabs show Romney taking the plurality of the vote among virtually all demographics. Whether a voter has a college degree or doesn't, supports the Tea Party or doesn't, considers himself (or herself) conservative or doesn't, is a registered Republican or isn't, he (or she) is most likely to vote for Romney, at least according to this poll.

Sheerly because of that uniformity, I'm apt to think the Rasmussen poll is more up-to-the-minute. Indeed, the Time poll took place January 4 to January 5, whereas the Rasmussen poll was entirely conducted yesterday. Maybe even a day makes a difference? To be sure, every day builds momentum for Santorum — until New Hampshire either solidifies or threatens it.

http://hotair.com/ar...19-gingrich-18/

Edited January 7, 2012 by ☠

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

If this holds, it'll be all over come Jan 31. Romney will sweep NH, win in SC - possibly with a huge margin - and then go on to carry FL. Game over for everyone else at that point. He's rolling. And then we've got a few months to figure out which Mitt is actually running for President. That's gonna be fun.