Paisaman's I-130 CSC Statistics

[GS11 0]

I guess you are asking MC to keep track of each stats pulled by Paisaman into one spreadsheet, right? (example: Green color bar for stats pulled on say 3/15, Blue color bar for stats pulled on say 3/19 etc.)

Yes, one spreadsheet for each month! Thanks

which numbers add up and do they ever get reset to 0?

For example, in September, USCIS received 18,000 I-130 Imm Rel applications and 13,300 I-130 Pref applications. Add 2500 in Acceptance errors (Paisaman's number) and you get about 34000 applications for the month of September (approx. equal to Paisaman's total number). So 400,000+ I-130 applications per year are received!

[sunshine_84 11]

Yes, one spreadsheet for each month! Thanks

Agree, it eliminates overhead to search on previous stat chart for the same month. One chart should report all previous stats for the same month. Also allows user to catch any errors which may have occurred during stats pull out from database.

For example, in September, USCIS received 18,000 I-130 Imm Rel applications and 13,300 I-130 Pref applications. Add 2500 in Acceptance errors (Paisaman's number) and you get about 34000 applications for the month of September (approx. equal to Paisaman's total number). So 400,000+ I-130 applications per year are received!

Shouldn't 400K be for all CSC, TSC and VSC offices?

[GS11 0]

Shouldn't 400K be for all CSC, TSC and VSC offices?

Nope, the links I shared were for CSC only. Btw, most applications, even for East Coast and South East were routed to CSC. VSC had an average of 5000 application per month and TSC had none in the last year or so. I encourage you to check out the USCIS Dashboard, if you like statistics! Perhaps you will find some trends that I may have missed.

[Paisaman 13]

Thanks buddy. I am guessing that you are running automated script to pull out status using certain tracking numbers range, right? If so, I think many other people like myself would be curious to know what filtering criteria do you have in your script while pulling out stats. I tried random tracking numbers last night and found some instances where XXX1 and XXX2 (both numbers adjacent to each other) are assigned for two different type of petitions (example I-130, I-529 or something. Sorry I don't recall exact file type). Do you filter out non-I130 applications from your filtered data?

Exactly. How do I do it? Mapping a new month is a pain because I have to pull *every single number* and then filter on those that are I130s.

Most important question: how do you know that tracking number is assigned to CSC and not to TSC or VSC offices?

WAC numbers = CSC

EAC numbers = VSC

I am closely monitoring your stats for last 8 weeks and it seems like every month there are more than 30K applications showing up ONLY at CSC in each month's stats and this number seems very high for I-130 applications to me. I may be wrong but this number turns into more than 360K/yr and if 70% are approved (remaining 30% are rejected due to fraud or some insufficient info to get approved), which means that more than 252K/yr are coming to USA on Green Card on a single I-130 category. That's something hard to believe.

No question on a great work you are doing to this community, and I definitely appreciate it. But I just want to make sure that accurate numbers are coming out from your hardworking effort.

Understood.. Because the data is public it is what it is.. I know definitively how many apps there are, but a 70% approval rate is very very high in this estimate. I think its more around 40% if that. The I130 take into consideration both the Spouse/Child as well as the extended family, obviously the extended ones take much much longer for approvals.

Another thing to consider is that when I see a "Decision" that doesn't always mean a positive outcome, simply that a definitive decision has been made.

-Paisaman

Edited March 20, 2012 by Paisaman

[Paisaman 13]

Thanks for the stats! You're the best, Paisaman!

Your idea regarding easy applications seems quite plausible.

Regarding the 50% split, my theory is that the number is slightly higher -- 57.5% of applications on average are for spouse/children/parents. Let me explain:

If you go to USCIS Dashboard and get the number of applications received for I-130 Imm Rel (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=4&office=2&charttype=1) and I-130 Pref (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=5&office=2&charttype=1), you can see that 57.5% are in Imm Rel category (i.e. spouse/children/parents). Here's my math. Start with your total number (34300+ in September) and subtract the ones with Acceptance errors (~2500), assuming that they have re-submitted. That approximately equals the sum of I-130 Imm Rel (~18000) and I-130 Pref (~13300) applications. It's not exact, but gets us a good approximation, within about 500-600 applications. So we are all rooting for the pending Initial Review number in your stats to equal the I-130 Pref number (~13,300 in this month's case).

Thoughts?

Thanks,

GS11

Nice work. I concur. Now, CSC, give me more agents and approve my damn petition. Arg.

[Paisaman 13]

Stat update for August 2011.

Total Applications: 37,886

Initial Review: 19,088 (-1,166 this week)

Decision: 13,521 (775 this week)

Request for Evidence: 3,524 (402 new this week)

Acceptance: 3,119

Other: 634

Slowly but surely wrapping up August..

**Arrrggghhh the slowness!!**

*cough* sorry.. Stay positive.. The sun will shine soon.

-Paisaman

[Paisaman 13]

Stat update for September 2011

Total Applications: 34,368

Initial Review: 22,273 (-2,487 this week)

Decision: 7,774 (2,017 this week)

Request for Evidence: 1,268 (495 new this week)

Acceptance: 2,492

Other: 561

The height of irony that there is more activity in September than August. Speaking as an August applicant.. #######.

I am sure the September applicants are excited though.

Good luck all.. Your time will come.

-Paisaman

[Swingman_Tomoyo 2]

Thanks Paisaman for the regular update about whats happening at USCIS. :-)

[MCMLXXXII 29]

Stat update for August 2011.

Total Applications: 37,886

Initial Review: 19,088 (-1,166 this week)

Decision: 13,521 (775 this week)

Request for Evidence: 3,524 (402 new this week)

Acceptance: 3,119

Other: 634

Slowly but surely wrapping up August..

**Arrrggghhh the slowness!!**

*cough* sorry.. Stay positive.. The sun will shine soon.

-Paisaman

Here is the chart for August.

Yes, one spreadsheet for each month! Thanks

I will try to do this for the september one which is soon to follow.

Edited March 20, 2012 by MCMLXXXII

[MCMLXXXII 29]

Stat update for September 2011

Total Applications: 34,368

Initial Review: 22,273 (-2,487 this week)

Decision: 7,774 (2,017 this week)

Request for Evidence: 1,268 (495 new this week)

Acceptance: 2,492

Other: 561

The height of irony that there is more activity in September than August. Speaking as an August applicant.. #######.

I am sure the September applicants are excited though.

Good luck all.. Your time will come.

-Paisaman

So I have created the new chart. I hope this is what you were looking for. I think it is very informative as we can see the changes on a weekly basis on this chart.

[MCMLXXXII 29]

I am in the 3rd week of September 9/11-9/16 and it is clear to see that this week is unusually lower than the others. What happened? They didn't move out all the boxes from storage and left that weeks batch still in there?

[MCMLXXXII 29]

The September chart looks really good, I think I might go back and re-enter all the august data per week and create a similar chart.

[MCMLXXXII 29]

[ullnvrkno 95]

Paisaman I have nothing but respect for you man... you are so graceful and so optimistic and so helpful toward everyone else. I hope your NOA2 comes in soon -- you're doing great work and have such a great attitude!!!!

[lubnajavid 20]

+1

@paisaman - thank you for your time and effort.

To everyone...

From the most recent processing times that were posted today, March 20th that uses Jan 31 data , it seems that the non USC I-130's are now moving at a 3 week per month rate - so that means my file wont be looked at for another 2 months or so:(

Also - looking at the rate of change on this weeks Aug stats - its moving at a approx 1200 per week processed - with 19000 left - so that could mean another 3 months or so for all of august files to be touched again?

On the upside for you USC's your files are now showing 5 months again as processing times...which coincides with the data being presented here - september files being worked on and approved.