Paisaman's I-130 CSC Statistics

[Amanda & Juan 1]

I am an Aug filer. Just wondering why there are so many Sept filers getting their approvals back but i am still waiting. Do you have any idea?

[MCMLXXXII 29]

All,

Initial run for September (taken as a snapshot last week, but took me this long to finish compiling and sorting).

Stats for September 2011 as of March 12, 2012

Total Cases: 34,368

Initial Review: 24,760

Post Decision: 5,757

Request for Evidence: 773

Acceptance Errors: 2,492

Other: 586

Will be updating to reflect this last week's activity shortly.

-Paisaman

Here is the chart for these stats.

[lubnajavid 20]

Paisaman, just a heads up when you're doing the stats for September...my case was approved on March 2nd and to this day it has updated it on the site-- still says "initial review". I called USCIS and they told me that they are having problems with the site. It may skew the data depending on how many other people this has impacted. I don't know if anyone else has had the same problem??

thats very intersting news about their case status site having issues - when did you talk to them exactly?

i wonder if that then ripples into the emails and SMS too?

thanks for the info

Edited March 19, 2012 by lubnajavid

[MCMLXXXII 29]

thats very intersting news about their case status site having issues - when did you talk to them exactly?

i wonder if that then ripples into the emails and SMS too?

thanks for the info

I was having trouble last night trying to sign in or check my status. I was thinking they might be updating the statuses at that time.

[lubnajavid 20]

no problems logging in today or using the check status of a case (i periodically check a few other case numbers earlier than mine)

i didnt have any problems logging in yesterday (i know - i just wanted to see if there was an update!!)

[Rac2012 0]

thats very intersting news about their case status site having issues - when did you talk to them exactly?

i wonder if that then ripples into the emails and SMS too?

thanks for the info

I called them last week because I panicked and thought they had made a mistake in our approval. I spoke to a Tier II who told me that their system was having issues. Website still says Initial Review...

[sunshine_84 11]

Paisaman..... thanks for September stats. Is your stat only pulling out data for I-130 applications for spouse/children? Just curious to know which different category you include in your stats?

[Paisaman 13]

I am an Aug filer. Just wondering why there are so many Sept filers getting their approvals back but i am still waiting. Do you have any idea?

OK so every agent has a case load that they randomly pick up, basically batches of applications. I see trends where 20-30 apps will get responses while others are left alone.

My theory is (1) that they clear the easy ones first. English speaking favored nations like the UK first, etc. and (2) security risk countries (areas where individuals are looked at more in-depth) and high-fraud areas (their terminology not mine) such as Colombia, China, Vietnam, India, Philippines, Brazil, Russia seem to take longer and are cleared later.

That's just my idea.. I could be wrong.

Paisaman..... thanks for September stats. Is your stat only pulling out data for I-130 applications for spouse/children? Just curious to know which different category you include in your stats?

I thought I could detect a way to split them out, but turns out it failed. I have been doing total I130 apps but my personal method is to assume that 50% of the apps are spouse/children and the rest are extended.

[jaycali 415]

I thought I could detect a way to split them out, but turns out it failed. I have been doing total I130 apps but my personal method is to assume that 50% of the apps are spouse/children and the rest are extended.

Does this include LPR petitioners too, or just USC petitioners?

[Paisaman 13]

Watching 20 screens gathering both August and September stats. Now that I don't have to do it all on my laptop the process is blazing fast. Will have updated stats for both tonight.

-Paisaman

[GS11 0]

My theory is (1) that they clear the easy ones first. English speaking favored nations like the UK first, etc. and (2) security risk countries (areas where individuals are looked at more in-depth) and high-fraud areas (their terminology not mine) such as Colombia, China, Vietnam, India, Philippines, Brazil, Russia seem to take longer and are cleared later.

That's just my idea.. I could be wrong.

I thought I could detect a way to split them out, but turns out it failed. I have been doing total I130 apps but my personal method is to assume that 50% of the apps are spouse/children and the rest are extended.

Thanks for the stats! You're the best, Paisaman!

Your idea regarding easy applications seems quite plausible.

Regarding the 50% split, my theory is that the number is slightly higher -- 57.5% of applications on average are for spouse/children/parents. Let me explain:

If you go to USCIS Dashboard and get the number of applications received for I-130 Imm Rel (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=4&office=2&charttype=1) and I-130 Pref (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=5&office=2&charttype=1), you can see that 57.5% are in Imm Rel category (i.e. spouse/children/parents). Here's my math. Start with your total number (34300+ in September) and subtract the ones with Acceptance errors (~2500), assuming that they have re-submitted. That approximately equals the sum of I-130 Imm Rel (~18000) and I-130 Pref (~13300) applications. It's not exact, but gets us a good approximation, within about 500-600 applications. So we are all rooting for the pending Initial Review number in your stats to equal the I-130 Pref number (~13,300 in this month's case).

Thoughts?

Thanks,

GS11

[sunshine_84 11]

Watching 20 screens gathering both August and September stats. Now that I don't have to do it all on my laptop the process is blazing fast. Will have updated stats for both tonight.

-Paisaman

Thanks buddy. I am guessing that you are running automated script to pull out status using certain tracking numbers range, right? If so, I think many other people like myself would be curious to know what filtering criteria do you have in your script while pulling out stats. I tried random tracking numbers last night and found some instances where XXX1 and XXX2 (both numbers adjacent to each other) are assigned for two different type of petitions (example I-130, I-529 or something. Sorry I don't recall exact file type). Do you filter out non-I130 applications from your filtered data?

Most important question: how do you know that tracking number is assigned to CSC and not to TSC or VSC offices?

I am closely monitoring your stats for last 8 weeks and it seems like every month there are more than 30K applications showing up ONLY at CSC in each month's stats and this number seems very high for I-130 applications to me. I may be wrong but this number turns into more than 360K/yr and if 70% are approved (remaining 30% are rejected due to fraud or some insufficient info to get approved), which means that more than 252K/yr are coming to USA on Green Card on a single I-130 category. That's something hard to believe.

No question on a great work you are doing to this community, and I definitely appreciate it. But I just want to make sure that accurate numbers are coming out from your hardworking effort.

Thanks again for your all work

[GS11 0]

Here is the chart for these stats.

MC, thanks to you too! I do have a request for feature improvement, if you don't mind. For Sept, could you combine everything into a single chart? For example, the next time we get stats from Paisaman, could you the new values to the same chart? Keep adding to the same chart as we get more and more data for the same month. Let me know if you want me to explain better. I am not sure if I am doing a good job of that. Thanks!

Edited March 19, 2012 by GS11

[GS11 0]

Thanks buddy. I am guessing that you are running automated script to pull out status using certain tracking numbers range, right? If so, I think many other people like myself would be curious to know what filtering criteria do you have in your script while pulling out stats. I tried random tracking numbers last night and found some instances where XXX1 and XXX2 (both numbers adjacent to each other) are assigned for two different type of petitions (example I-130, I-529 or something. Sorry I don't recall exact file type). Do you filter out non-I130 applications from your filtered data?

Most important question: how do you know that tracking number is assigned to CSC and not to TSC or VSC offices?

I am closely monitoring your stats for last 8 weeks and it seems like every month there are more than 30K applications showing up ONLY at CSC in each month's stats and this number seems very high for I-130 applications to me. I may be wrong but this number turns into more than 360K/yr and if 70% are approved (remaining 30% are rejected due to fraud or some insufficient info to get approved), which means that more than 252K/yr are coming to USA on Green Card on a single I-130 category. That's something hard to believe.

No question on a great work you are doing to this community, and I definitely appreciate it. But I just want to make sure that accurate numbers are coming out from your hardworking effort.

Thanks again for your all work

The numbers seem to add up. See USCIS dashboard for number of receipts for I-130 Imm Rel and I-130 Pref (links in my previous post).

[sunshine_84 11]

MC, thanks to you too! I do have a request for feature improvement, if you don't mind. For Sept, could you combine everything into a single chart? For example, the next time we get stats from Paisaman, could you the new values to the same chart? Keep adding to the same chart as we get more and more data for the same month. Let me know if you want me to explain better. I am not sure if I am doing a good job of that. Thanks!

I guess you are asking MC to keep track of each stats pulled by Paisaman into one spreadsheet, right? (example: Green color bar for stats pulled on say 3/15, Blue color bar for stats pulled on say 3/19 etc.)

The numbers seem to add up. See USCIS dashboard for number of receipts for I-130 Imm Rel and I-130 Pref (links in my previous post).

which numbers add up and do they ever get reset to 0?