Now that Iowa is a dead heat, Romney is national GOP frontrunner again

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

Newt Gingrich's likelihood of winning the Republican nomination plummeted in the prediction markets from nearly 40 percent midday on Tuesday to about 20 percent midday on Thursday, holding at 19.6 percent as of this writing. Gingrich still has a large lead in Real Clear Politics' aggregated trend of national Republican polls with 33.2 percentage points to 22.7 percentage points for Mitt Romney and 10.0 percentage points for Ron Paul. Gingrich's abrupt drop in the prediction markets is all about concerns over his strength in Iowa.

The Iowa Caucus has fallen back into a dead heat. A PPP poll, released on Tuesday, gives Gingrich a slim 1 percentage point lead over Ron Paul, and a Rasmussen poll released Thursday gives Romney a 1 percentage point lead over Gingrich. Both results fall within the margin of error.

The chart shows, side by side, Gingrich's likelihood of winning (1) the Republican nomination, and (2) the Iowa Caucus. As you can see, his prospects nationally are intimately tied to his showing in Iowa. As his lead in Iowa collapsed following the PPP poll, his national strength waned in near lock step.

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/signal/now-iowa-dead-heat-romney-national-gop-frontrunner-203814902.html

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

**! I was really hoping for the GOP to nominate one of their nutjobs. Newt would have been perfect. Michele would have been better. And Herman would have taken the cake. But what are these fcukers doing? Going safe. Puzzies.