correct me if my prediction is wrong for dec 2010

[jhp 10]

friends....i have calculated certain numbers for prediction......plz visit this uscis website for I-130 filing in all the categories...

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/csvfiles/I-130-Pref_National_Trend-Chart.csv

Pending ---------------------Completions----Receipts----- Month & Year

109053----655614-----43150-----93059-----15125-----Aug09

96734-----608040-----48432-----68524-----15650-----Sep09

83500-----562294-----43849-----79723-----16259-----Oct09

65591-----527821-----41529-----70427-----14796-----Nov09

99627-----437290-----42849-----74921-----16263-----Dec09

123568----361462-----44614-----66833-----13575-----Jan10

184553----284344-----25914-----50891-----13977-----Feb10

236600----207718-----16605-----62623-----21568-----Mar10

206314----198138-----14091-----68074-----22262-----Apr10

173410----186224-----15005-----62405-----18770-----May10

142693----175182-----15338-----64101-----19772-----Jun10

118066----163096-----14981-----53942-----15933-----Jul10

89644-----142853-----15170-----72321-----21806-----Aug10

50635-----143071-----14143-----61018-----22171-----Sep10

44757-----153683-----10184-----26541-----23800-----Oct10

51885-----162707-----7891------20546-----30949-----Nov10

20577-----205454-----6612------20257-----27043-----Dec10

17616-----213359-----7168------18429-----20321-----Jan11

7463------228529-----8468------13851-----16413-----Feb11

10757-----233236-----10847-----23702-----26832-----Mar11

13707-----247498-----9267------13200-----22801-----Apr11

12538-----254339-----8377------17152-----20581-----May11

20487-----259201-----6008------12789-----21038-----Jun11

13314-----275553-----4823------10752-----15921-----Jul11

--------------------475315-----1126081---473626 ------

Lets assume 15% filing is of f2a at the max......and lets assume feb 2009 to july 2009 filing is average of all the periods in the link....so total filing in all the categories is 473626 petitions and 15% of it is of f2a..so it is around 71000 petitions....and average petition contains at the most 1.5 persons....so it makes 106000 visas still waiting in f2a who filed before january 2011 (approx) and if they utilise full quota of 88000 visas of f2a it wont take more than 1 year and 3 month.....(Here i have not taken into account the numbers of transfer from f2a to IR and f2b,if we count that it may end up in lessor period)..........and in my view this is the maximum number of visas waiting who filed before january 2011.....

plz correct me if i am wrong...

[jhp 10]

so according to me the visa waiting list published for a st nov 2010 is showing some data which are misleading or requires few clarifications...which shows that upto 1st nov 2010 its about 360000 (visas) petitions still waiting for visas after completion.....

[kumbahara 3]

jhp, there are some assumptions in your argument that may not reflect the ground reality of F2A visa issuance, namely

1. FIFO Queue system - All I130 approval, keeps getting processed from USCIS to NVC and the "demand" that often gets mentioned in the visa bulletin reflects the month over month, older applications being processed and being replaced by newer approvals with increasing priority date. You may realize from our watchlist, that may not be true. The fluctuations in cutoff date if any gives indication of phantom applications centered around late 2008, early 2009 priority dates, the whole 88000 applications with movement till Nov 2008. Until DoS puts out its FY 2011 visa issuance report - that includes both consular and Adjustment of Status applications, I dont think we would have any clearer picture of exactly what demand, which consulates seem to be issuing F2A. Most likely you would see > 70% of visas issued to be in Mexico and other latin american countries with hardly around 1000 visas in the whole FY elsewhere. That has been the trend.

2. Fairness of issuance - With consular's non processing of F2A, or lets say limited processing, the front of the line isnt moving. So according to DoS, the demand is always ever present. Note, I understand demand not as influx of new I130, but whats visible to DOS, which is existing case complete PDs in NVC and small number pending in USCIS as Adjustment of Status for F2A. So, in an attempt to show the congress and rest of the world that their process is fair and accurate, the DoS purposefully fudges the numbers. Of course they dont have to release any month by month tally of where visas are being issued, so it doesnt take much to lopside their visa number by putting everything in one bucket under Mexico or El Salvador or plainly overflows to F3/F4. If FY 2011 visa cutoff date movement is any indication, it clearly reveals there is no correlation between number of I130 pending/approved to the DOS "demand". That is my opinion, of course. Which is why I feel, more than anything, we need month by month visa issuance statistics. HOw many issued in any month? Where issued? How many pending in NVC with case complete? You would assume DoS visa office has those statistics since they claim to release the bulletin based on those very facts, except doesnt want to share with the world. How so convenient!

Edited October 19, 2011 by kumbahara

[jhp 10]

jhp, there are some assumptions in your argument that may not reflect the ground reality of F2A visa issuance, namely

1. FIFO Queue system - All I130 approval, keeps getting processed from USCIS to NVC and the "demand" that often gets mentioned in the visa bulletin reflects the month over month, older applications being processed and being replaced by newer approvals with increasing priority date. You may realize from our watchlist, that may not be true. The fluctuations in cutoff date if any gives indication of phantom applications centered around late 2008, early 2009 priority dates, the whole 88000 applications with movement till Nov 2008. Until DoS puts out its FY 2011 visa issuance report - that includes both consular and Adjustment of Status applications, I dont think we would have any clearer picture of exactly what demand, which consulates seem to be issuing F2A. Most likely you would see > 70% of visas issued to be in Mexico and other latin american countries with hardly around 1000 visas in the whole FY elsewhere. That has been the trend.

2. Fairness of issuance - With consular's non processing of F2A, or lets say limited processing, the front of the line isnt moving. So according to DoS, the demand is always ever present. Note, I understand demand not as influx of new I130, but whats visible to DOS, which is existing case complete PDs in NVC and small number pending in USCIS as Adjustment of Status for F2A. So, in an attempt to show the congress and rest of the world that their process is fair and accurate, the DoS purposefully fudges the numbers. Of course they dont have to release any month by month tally of where visas are being issued, so it doesnt take much to lopside their visa number by putting everything in one bucket under Mexico or El Salvador or plainly overflows to F3/F4. If FY 2011 visa cutoff date movement is any indication, it clearly reveals there is no correlation between number of I130 pending/approved to the DOS "demand". That is my opinion, of course. Which is why I feel, more than anything, we need month by month visa issuance statistics. HOw many issued in any month? Where issued? How many pending in NVC with case complete? You would assume DoS visa office has those statistics since they claim to release the bulletin based on those very facts, except doesnt want to share with the world. How so convenient!

yes...i agree with your arguments but my prediction is based on I 130 filings....bcaz if PD is feb 2009 then we should consider that PD before that is approved,ccase completed and visa had been issued......so now we have to find the filings after feb 2009.....so i tried to find the numbers or approximate numbers of filings in total and of that filing in f2a........and i assumed that all the data are correct published by uscis. Plus uscis and nvc will work properly so that case will be approved in time and case will be completed before cutoff date will reach the PD....(BUT WE ALL KNOW THIS IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN THAT ALL THE USCIS,NVC AND DOS WILL ISSUE THE CORRECT DATA AND WILL WORK PROPERLY)...BY THE WAY THANKS FOR HIGHLIGHTING ASSUMPTIONS....