Haley Barbour: Herman Cain Would Sweep The South Against Obama (wouldn't any Republican? Well maybe not Romney...)

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“If Herman Cain is our nominee against Barack Obama, I think he’ll sweep the south," Gov. Haley Barbour (R-Miss.) told Laura Ingraham today.

“I think if it were today my wife would vote for Herman Cain. One of my sons, I have grown children, you know, from the first day said ‘Dad, do you know Herman Cain?’ I said sure, I’ve known him since I was Chairman. He said “Man, I like him, I like what he says,” and that is one of his great strengths Laura. He is likable. He does not give you the impression that he is full of himself, but rather than he is a straight-talkin’ person who, will tell you, he call it like he sees them. He’s not trying to sugar coat anything and at the same time he is not trying to be shrill and a chest beater. He’s a straight talker and I think that makes him very, very attractive to people.”

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2011/10/13/haley_barbour_herman_cain_would_sweep_the_south_against_obama.html

[The_Dude 1,142]

I think any republican (except Romney) would easily win most of the south, except for N.C., VA, and FL. Not saying Obama would win those automatically, just that they are in play for both sides.

[scandal 951]

Well, it's not too early to start playing what-if scenarios:

http://ElectoralMap.net/2012/myPrediction.php

For example, select "Start with 2008" - that's 180 GOP/ 358 DEM on the 2012 map.

Next, give to the GOP all the southern states that went for Obama in 2008: VA, NC, FL : GOP 237, DEM 301

Next, give GOP the western in-play states NV, CO and NM: GOP 257, DEM 281.

Toss in IN which was a fluke DEM win in 2008 and is redmeat GOP territory: GOP 268, DEM 270.

The map is now solidly red except for blue on west coast and northeast/upper midwest. But that's still not enough, GOP needs more. And say what you want, NY, MA, CA are not going GOP.

So that probably leaves the classic tossup states: OH, PA, as the deciders. When all is said and done, that's where it's going to be decided.

[SMR 368]

Well, it's not too early to start playing what-if scenarios:

http://ElectoralMap.net/2012/myPrediction.php

For example, select "Start with 2008" - that's 180 GOP/ 358 DEM on the 2012 map.

Next, give to the GOP all the southern states that went for Obama in 2008: VA, NC, FL : GOP 237, DEM 301

Next, give GOP the western in-play states NV, CO and NM: GOP 257, DEM 281.

Toss in IN which was a fluke DEM win in 2008 and is redmeat GOP territory: GOP 268, DEM 270.

The map is now solidly red except for blue on west coast and northeast/upper midwest. But that's still not enough, GOP needs more. And say what you want, NY, MA, CA are not going GOP.

So that probably leaves the classic tossup states: OH, PA, as the deciders. When all is said and done, that's where it's going to be decided.

Also in play: Iowa. And if the nominee were Romney, I wouldn't count him out in MA or a couple other NE states. Scott Brown won MA statewide recently and being that Romney was governor there he should have a good shot as well. Also in play could be New Hampshire (I believe that New Hampshire is the state that can split it's electors in certain situations). And New Jersey may be a long shot but Christie won there and Romney might do well as well. Michigan and Minnesota are also always talked about. Pawlenty might be on the list for VP and he would do well there.

Of course, this is just a list of things that could go well for Republicans. There's plenty of stuff that could swing the other way.

Edited October 14, 2011 by SMR

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New Jersey may be a long shot but Christie won there and Romney might do well as well.

No. The Democratic machine kicks in during presidential years and brings out huge urban turnout. Not going to happen in 2012.

[웃 910]

Also in play: Iowa. And if the nominee were Romney, I wouldn't count him out in MA or a couple other NE states. Scott Brown won MA statewide recently and being that Romney was governor there he should have a good shot as well. Also in play could be New Hampshire (I believe that New Hampshire is the state that can split it's electors in certain situations). And New Jersey may be a long shot but Christie won there and Romney might do well as well. Michigan and Minnesota are also always talked about. Pawlenty might be on the list for VP and he would do well there.

Of course, this is just a list of things that could go well for Republicans. There's plenty of stuff that could swing the other way.

Romney is very well liked in Michigan. His father was governor here in the 60s. Romney won easily against McCain in Michigan in '08.

[The_Dude 1,142]

As we get closer to the primaries, we will begin to see more and more reminders of Romney and his magic underwear.

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Romney won easily against McCain in Michigan in '08.

In a Republican primary. Different electorate.

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

In a Republican primary. Different electorate.

I think MI would be tough for Romney in the general election seeing how well the support of two of the three car manufacturers has worked that Romney is on record opposing. Hundreds of thousands of MI jobs were saved and tens of thousands have been added because the administration stepped in and kept GM and Chrysler above water. I can see the ads already.