December 2011 Visa Bulletin Prediction

[mahakali 2]

I have a felling dec vb will be august 2009 guys just watch you all will be suprised

any reason

[youssefsoso 6]

any reason

hi Arman81, If your prediction comes true i will never forget you all my life

i wish from deep my heart my Visa be current at the Dec VB Plz God plzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Edited October 27, 2011 by youssefsoso

[mamtep 0]

I have a felling dec vb will be august 2009 guys just watch you all will be suprised

You may be right, we may be surprised since impossilbleness sometime suddenly becomes possible (coz, impossible means I'M POSSIBLE). Let's pray and hope for the best.

[youssefsoso 6]

You may be right, we may be surprised since impossilbleness sometime suddenly becomes possible (coz, impossible means I'M POSSIBLE). Let's pray and hope for the best.

If that happened it means by 2012 the Visa will be current like what we read since a year ago!! But things never been stable here at this issue , Im Praying from deep my Heart that's come true, my PD is 16 April 09 i sent last night an email to NVC and supposing to reply by TMW , from the x posts we should call by 30 of the month isn't it?

[jelaru 6]

I called NVC just now, same answer....."have to wait for priority date to be current"......haiisst so frustrating!!

[jelaru 6]

You may be right, we may be surprised since impossilbleness sometime suddenly becomes possible (coz, impossible means I'M POSSIBLE). Let's pray and hope for the best.

I TOTALLY AGREE!

[miraya 8]

Guys, see this. Oppenheim is going to screw us - Family absed immigration applicants - big time

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2011/10/26/visa-bulletin-predictions-and-updates-from-charles-oppenheim-october-26-2011/

Visa Bulletin Predictions and Updates from Charles Oppenheim (October 26, 2011)

October 26th, 2011 | Category: Articles,EB-2,EB-3,News,Visa Bulletin

Our office just came back from a discussion session here in Washington, DC with Charles Oppenheim. Mr. Oppenheim is the Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division at the U.S. Department of State. For many, he is simply known as the person responsible for the monthly and annual visa number allocations for family- and employment-based green cards. He is also the person who prepares and publishes the monthly visa bulletin which is highly anticipated every month.

We are asked on a daily basis by our clients to provide visa bulletin predictions and when a particular priority date may become current. As a result, on behalf of our clients, we appreciate the opportunity Mr. Oppenheim has afforded us to get some advance sense of the movement of the priority dates and also on short- and long-term immigrant visa trends.

Summary of Mr. Oppenheim’s Key Points

EB-2 China and India will advance significantly over the next few visa bulletins. A possible slowdown (or retrogression) may come in the summer of 2012. EB-3 China and, specifically, India, will move very slowly and this category is “ridiculously” oversubscribed — very long times to be expected. Family-based dates will advance gradually.

General Visa Number Trends

Mr. Oppenheim reiterated the fact that in the employment-based context, each green card application case is “larger” than previously expected and instead of one visa number, if often includes two or three (because many primary beneficiaries have married and have children). As a result, and in recognition of the fact that many EB-3 India and China candidates are now eligible for and applying under the EB-2 category, Mr. Oppenheim noted that the EB-3 visa numbers are expected to remain oversubscribed and to move slowly forward.

However, Mr. Oppenheim indicated that he expects to be able to advance EB-2 China and India significantly over the next few months.

With respect to family-based cases, Mr. Oppenheim noted that the demand, especially in the FB2 category has exceeded his expectations after the sharp forward movement at the end of 2010. This sharp forward movement has generated a significant demand for FB2 preference category visas and he has had to retrogress significantly in order to control demand. He indicated that slow forward movement is expected.

On a more general level, Mr. Oppenheim shared that his goal is to advance the cutoff dates more at the beginning of the fiscal year (October, November and December visa bulletins) and then, as he is able to gauge demand for a particular preference category, adjust accordingly by either slowing down or retrogressing (if demand is high) or advancing even more (is demand turns out to be low).

Visa Bulletin Predictions – Employment-Based

Mr. Oppenheim was able to provide some predictions and expectations for movement of visa numbers over the next few months. Please note that these are short-term predictions and depending on the number of applications as a result of the next few months’ visa numbers, the rate of cutoff date movement may change.

EB-2 Rest of World (ROW). This category is expected to remain current throughout the fiscal year.

EB-2 China and EB-2 India. These two categories are where the most action is going to be over the next few months. Mr. Oppenheim indicated that he expects to be able to advance EB-2 China and India significantly over the next few visa bulletins. It is possible that the December 2011 Visa Bulletin would advance EB-2 India and China to at least March 1, 2008 or even further. Similar forward movement may be expected in the January 2012 and February 2012 Visa Bulletins. Mr. Oppenheim cautioned, however, that if there is high demand (number of filings) in the EB-2 category, he may hold or even retrogress towards the summer of 2012. He noted that there is usually a 4-6 month gap between filing of an I-485 adjustment application and when a visa number is actually requested and allocated — this means that EB-2 India and China I-485 applications filed in the fall will be need visa numbers in spring/summer of 2012 and this is when retrogression may happen.

EB-3 Rest of World (ROW). This category is expected to move gradually slightly forward for the next few visa bulletins — anticipated forward movement of 3 to 4 weeks per month.

EB-3 China. This category is expected to move slowly forward – by 1-3 weeks per month for the next few months.

EB-3 India. Unfortunately, this category is, according to Mr. Oppenheim, “ridiculously oversubscribed” and forward movement, if any, will be very slow. This category is expected to remain unchanged or to move very slowly forward (by a 1-2 weeks or so). This is mainly caused by the fact that there are simply too many EB-3 India applicants waiting for a visa number to become available. Mr. Oppenheim suggested that since the summer of 2007, no new EB-3 India cases have been filed and there is a significant number of EB-3 India candidates waiting for the priority dates to move forward.

EB-3 India and China – 70 Years Wait for Green Card?

There have been a number of recent articles and comments on the possibility that Indian and Chinese applicants who are in the EB-3 category may be facing a 70-year wait to obtain a visa number. Mr. Oppenheim’s reaction: that this is “plausible”.

As a background, according to a recent report, since the majority of employment-based green card filings are from India and China, the current per-country limit (which restricts the number of green cards awarded to any country to 7% of the total) places a ceiling on how many EB-3 green cards can be approved every year. For Indians, the limit of EB-3 green cards that can be issued every year is fewer than 3,000. The estimate (generally confirmed by Mr. Oppenheim) of the pending EB-3 cases is somewhere around 210,000 (primary EB-3 candidates plus family members). As a result, a simple calculation shows that it may take around 70 years for an EB-3 India candidate to obtain a green card.

Unfortunately, the estimates were generally confirmed by Mr. Oppenheim who, while not specifically endorsing the 70-year wait period, confirmed that EB-3 India will be very slow going forward due to very heavy demand. EB-3 China is in a very similar situation, even though the demand numbers are proportionally lower.

Visa Bulletin Predictions – Family-Based

Mr. Oppenheim was also able to provide some predictions and expectations for movement of the family-based visa numbers over the next few months. Unlike the employment-based visa numbers, Mr. Oppenheim indicated that the family-based visa numbers are likely to be fairly predictable.

FB 2A. According to Mr. Oppenheim, this family-based category has shown a high demand as a result of the sudden forward movement at the end of 2010 and, as a result, had to be retrogressed. Now that the demand is fairly predictable, a gradual forward movement of 3-6 weeks per month is to be expected.FB 2B and FB3. Forward movement in the 2B category is expected to be 1-2 weeks per month.

FB4. Forward movement of about one month per month is to be expected.

Conclusion

Mr. Oppenheim’s comments are extremely helpful to get a sense of the visa cutoff dates over the next few months. Overall, Mr. Oppenheim’s comments are likely to create some mixed feelings among our employment-based clients. Although EB-2 is likely to move forward significantly over the next few months, the long term prospects of EB-3 China and India are not good.

Our office is prepared to handle the anticipated significant forward movement in the EB-2 China and India categories. Please do not hesitate to contact us if we can review your case or answer any questions. We also invite you to subscribe to our free weekly immigration newsletter to receive timely updates on this and related topics. Finally, if you already haven’t, please consider our Visa Bulletin Predictions tool which provides personalized predictions and charts helping you understand when a particular priority date may become current and what are the movement patterns.

[jelaru 6]

Guys, see this. Oppenheim is going to screw us - Family absed immigration applicants - big time

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2011/10/26/visa-bulletin-predictions-and-updates-from-charles-oppenheim-october-26-2011/

Visa Bulletin Predictions and Updates from Charles Oppenheim (October 26, 2011)

October 26th, 2011 | Category: Articles,EB-2,EB-3,News,Visa Bulletin

Our office just came back from a discussion session here in Washington, DC with Charles Oppenheim. Mr. Oppenheim is the Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division at the U.S. Department of State. For many, he is simply known as the person responsible for the monthly and annual visa number allocations for family- and employment-based green cards. He is also the person who prepares and publishes the monthly visa bulletin which is highly anticipated every month.

We are asked on a daily basis by our clients to provide visa bulletin predictions and when a particular priority date may become current. As a result, on behalf of our clients, we appreciate the opportunity Mr. Oppenheim has afforded us to get some advance sense of the movement of the priority dates and also on short- and long-term immigrant visa trends.

Summary of Mr. Oppenheim’s Key Points

EB-2 China and India will advance significantly over the next few visa bulletins. A possible slowdown (or retrogression) may come in the summer of 2012. EB-3 China and, specifically, India, will move very slowly and this category is “ridiculously” oversubscribed — very long times to be expected. Family-based dates will advance gradually.

General Visa Number Trends

Mr. Oppenheim reiterated the fact that in the employment-based context, each green card application case is “larger” than previously expected and instead of one visa number, if often includes two or three (because many primary beneficiaries have married and have children). As a result, and in recognition of the fact that many EB-3 India and China candidates are now eligible for and applying under the EB-2 category, Mr. Oppenheim noted that the EB-3 visa numbers are expected to remain oversubscribed and to move slowly forward.

However, Mr. Oppenheim indicated that he expects to be able to advance EB-2 China and India significantly over the next few months.

With respect to family-based cases, Mr. Oppenheim noted that the demand, especially in the FB2 category has exceeded his expectations after the sharp forward movement at the end of 2010. This sharp forward movement has generated a significant demand for FB2 preference category visas and he has had to retrogress significantly in order to control demand. He indicated that slow forward movement is expected.

On a more general level, Mr. Oppenheim shared that his goal is to advance the cutoff dates more at the beginning of the fiscal year (October, November and December visa bulletins) and then, as he is able to gauge demand for a particular preference category, adjust accordingly by either slowing down or retrogressing (if demand is high) or advancing even more (is demand turns out to be low).

Visa Bulletin Predictions – Employment-Based

Mr. Oppenheim was able to provide some predictions and expectations for movement of visa numbers over the next few months. Please note that these are short-term predictions and depending on the number of applications as a result of the next few months’ visa numbers, the rate of cutoff date movement may change.

EB-2 Rest of World (ROW). This category is expected to remain current throughout the fiscal year.

EB-2 China and EB-2 India. These two categories are where the most action is going to be over the next few months. Mr. Oppenheim indicated that he expects to be able to advance EB-2 China and India significantly over the next few visa bulletins. It is possible that the December 2011 Visa Bulletin would advance EB-2 India and China to at least March 1, 2008 or even further. Similar forward movement may be expected in the January 2012 and February 2012 Visa Bulletins. Mr. Oppenheim cautioned, however, that if there is high demand (number of filings) in the EB-2 category, he may hold or even retrogress towards the summer of 2012. He noted that there is usually a 4-6 month gap between filing of an I-485 adjustment application and when a visa number is actually requested and allocated — this means that EB-2 India and China I-485 applications filed in the fall will be need visa numbers in spring/summer of 2012 and this is when retrogression may happen.

EB-3 Rest of World (ROW). This category is expected to move gradually slightly forward for the next few visa bulletins — anticipated forward movement of 3 to 4 weeks per month.

EB-3 China. This category is expected to move slowly forward – by 1-3 weeks per month for the next few months.

EB-3 India. Unfortunately, this category is, according to Mr. Oppenheim, “ridiculously oversubscribed” and forward movement, if any, will be very slow. This category is expected to remain unchanged or to move very slowly forward (by a 1-2 weeks or so). This is mainly caused by the fact that there are simply too many EB-3 India applicants waiting for a visa number to become available. Mr. Oppenheim suggested that since the summer of 2007, no new EB-3 India cases have been filed and there is a significant number of EB-3 India candidates waiting for the priority dates to move forward.

EB-3 India and China – 70 Years Wait for Green Card?

There have been a number of recent articles and comments on the possibility that Indian and Chinese applicants who are in the EB-3 category may be facing a 70-year wait to obtain a visa number. Mr. Oppenheim’s reaction: that this is “plausible”.

As a background, according to a recent report, since the majority of employment-based green card filings are from India and China, the current per-country limit (which restricts the number of green cards awarded to any country to 7% of the total) places a ceiling on how many EB-3 green cards can be approved every year. For Indians, the limit of EB-3 green cards that can be issued every year is fewer than 3,000. The estimate (generally confirmed by Mr. Oppenheim) of the pending EB-3 cases is somewhere around 210,000 (primary EB-3 candidates plus family members). As a result, a simple calculation shows that it may take around 70 years for an EB-3 India candidate to obtain a green card.

Unfortunately, the estimates were generally confirmed by Mr. Oppenheim who, while not specifically endorsing the 70-year wait period, confirmed that EB-3 India will be very slow going forward due to very heavy demand. EB-3 China is in a very similar situation, even though the demand numbers are proportionally lower.

Visa Bulletin Predictions – Family-Based

Mr. Oppenheim was also able to provide some predictions and expectations for movement of the family-based visa numbers over the next few months. Unlike the employment-based visa numbers, Mr. Oppenheim indicated that the family-based visa numbers are likely to be fairly predictable.

FB 2A. According to Mr. Oppenheim, this family-based category has shown a high demand as a result of the sudden forward movement at the end of 2010 and, as a result, had to be retrogressed. Now that the demand is fairly predictable, a gradual forward movement of 3-6 weeks per month is to be expected.FB 2B and FB3. Forward movement in the 2B category is expected to be 1-2 weeks per month.

FB4. Forward movement of about one month per month is to be expected.

Conclusion

Mr. Oppenheim’s comments are extremely helpful to get a sense of the visa cutoff dates over the next few months. Overall, Mr. Oppenheim’s comments are likely to create some mixed feelings among our employment-based clients. Although EB-2 is likely to move forward significantly over the next few months, the long term prospects of EB-3 China and India are not good.

Our office is prepared to handle the anticipated significant forward movement in the EB-2 China and India categories. Please do not hesitate to contact us if we can review your case or answer any questions. We also invite you to subscribe to our free weekly immigration newsletter to receive timely updates on this and related topics. Finally, if you already haven’t, please consider our Visa Bulletin Predictions tool which provides personalized predictions and charts helping you understand when a particular priority date may become current and what are the movement patterns.

isn't that the clause we've seen at the visa bulletin in the past month?? if we check november's visa bulletin, that clause isn't there anymore...I'm thinking that it is a good sign that that clause isn't there anymore, made me feel that the progress of the visa bulletin will advance further more.....let's just keep praying, God is good, all the time!

[zeezee 2]

Guys, see this. Oppenheim is going to screw us - Family absed immigration applicants - big time

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2011/10/26/visa-bulletin-predictions-and-updates-from-charles-oppenheim-october-26-2011/

wow...well this is indeed going to slow the process. Man I just hate it..

PD - 5/29/09

[visapetition 2]

Guys, see this. Oppenheim is going to screw us - Family absed immigration applicants - big time

I don't think that reasonable slow movement to accomodate everyone in the category qualifies as "screwing us big time".

[cardilene 26]

Come on guys,..

For as long as its moving forward, its really ok,..

That's all we can do, we have no right to demand whatsoever,

we are the ones wanting to migrate, they did not ask us to,..

we chose this path, then just be patient and pray...

Cheers,..

[kumbahara 3]

Well, that shows what can be expected for the foreseeable future with Mr.Oppenhiem's visa bulletin then. While there is no way to clearly get an idea on supposed demand that Mr.Oppenhiem refers to, there is more than just sitting and praying that would alter this situation

Congresswoman Zoe Lofgren atleast tried adding an amendment (http://judiciary.house.gov/hearings/pdf/10272011%20Lofgren%20Amdt1%20-%20NG.pdf) to institute W visa for spouses of LPR, although it was ruled out in the congressional hearing on HR3012, which makes it way to the house now after being passed. HR3012 increases the quota of each country to 15% (http://judiciary.house.gov/hearings/mark_10252011.html). She also tried an amendment for recapturing the already wasted visas too.

While a congresswoman can try and put together legislations to support the cause for the benefit of this forum members, wont each of the beneficiaries and petitioners atleast voice their support to the cause or just put up hands in the air and pray? Wishful thinking never changes anything - only action does.

Atleast write to the congressmen to

1. Urge DOS to release visa issuance or demand statistics to justify their claim of high demand. Mr.Oppenheim in his letter suggested almost 20,000 visa were wasted in FY 2010. Thats what happens when there is no openness to the visa issuance or questioning the DOS visa bulletin mechanism.

2. Urge congressmen/woman to pass HR3119 (http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/z?c112:H.R.3119:) It has some legislative relief for spouse of LPR.

http://www.visajourney.com/forums/topic/328932-wake-up-f2a-fellow-members-and-send-this-draft/page__pid__4951406__st__150#entry4951406

or

3. Keep praying till your day comes and predict visa bulletins month over month, year over year.

“Be the change you want to see in the world.” - MK Gandhi

[Mxjoh29 1]

Well, that shows what can be expected for the foreseeable future with Mr.Oppenhiem's visa bulletin then. While there is no way to clearly get an idea on supposed demand that Mr.Oppenhiem refers to, there is more than just sitting and praying that would alter this situation

Congresswoman Zoe Lofgren atleast tried adding an amendment (http://judiciary.house.gov/hearings/pdf/10272011%20Lofgren%20Amdt1%20-%20NG.pdf) to institute W visa for spouses of LPR, although it was ruled out in the congressional hearing on HR3012, which makes it way to the house now after being passed. HR3012 increases the quota of each country to 15% (http://judiciary.house.gov/hearings/mark_10252011.html). She also tried an amendment for recapturing the already wasted visas too.

While a congresswoman can try and put together legislations to support the cause for the benefit of this forum members, wont each of the beneficiaries and petitioners atleast voice their support to the cause or just put up hands in the air and pray? Wishful thinking never changes anything - only action does.

Atleast write to the congressmen to

1. Urge DOS to release visa issuance or demand statistics to justify their claim of high demand. Mr.Oppenheim in his letter suggested almost 20,000 visa were wasted in FY 2010. Thats what happens when there is no openness to the visa issuance or questioning the DOS visa bulletin mechanism.

2. Urge congressmen/woman to pass HR3119 (http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/z?c112:H.R.3119:) It has some legislative relief for spouse of LPR.

http://www.visajourney.com/forums/topic/328932-wake-up-f2a-fellow-members-and-send-this-draft/page__pid__4951406__st__150#entry4951406

or

3. Keep praying till your day comes and predict visa bulletins month over month, year over year.

This really make sense. What should we mention about W visa. I want to give letters to the congress men here in DC. Please let me know if there is any ref number??

[jelaru 6]

Come on guys,..

For as long as its moving forward, its really ok,..

That's all we can do, we have no right to demand whatsoever,

we are the ones wanting to migrate, they did not ask us to,..

we chose this path, then just be patient and pray...

Cheers,..

although at times it is frustrating..but you are so right!

[kumbahara 3]

This really make sense. What should we mention about W visa. I want to give letters to the congress men here in DC. Please let me know if there is any ref number??

Thanks Mxjoh29! Here is the draft

http://www.visajourney.com/forums/topic/328932-wake-up-f2a-fellow-members-and-send-this-draft/page__st__135__p__4944982#entry4944982

All the responses I have got right from Mr.Oppenheim to Ms. Lofgren is in that thread. If you are in DC and would want to meet in person you can go their website and request for an appointment too.