Israeli census

[luckytxn 2,265]

Great movie.

[scandal 951]

The Israeli government is the primary force pushing Israel toward a one-state solution - it is doing everything it can to make a Palestinian state impossible . It may have crossed the point of no return already.

I notice you don't take any issue with my calculations. In a recent post you cited a population crossover point of 75 years without justification. Not that the absolute number of years till a crossover makes much difference, but for all of your airs of certitude you might do a bit of fact checking yourself now and again.

The ongoing settlement movement is indeed a dagger directed at the heart of the 2 state solution. I oppose the settler movement and the Israeli government stance that perpetuate this policy. I also know full well that hardliners on the Palestinian side, those who vow ongoing hostility to Israel regardless of any territorial compromise, have no interest in a two state solution either. They are a every bit as much a cancer eating away at the prospects of a two state solution.

Being a supporter of a two-state solution is a lonely place to stand. There are nothing but hard line views on all sides and dim prospects for the hard compromises needed for a lasting permanent solution. Nonetheless, I stand in that place, calling for reason, for compromise, for recognition of the legitimate national goals of TWO peoples, the legitimate territorial demands of TWO peoples, and a call for the end to violence and bloodshed.

In all of your diatribes I have yet to hear you speak for this center, for compromise, for acknowledgment of the legitimate rights of BOTH peoples, and condemnation of the wrongs committed by extremists no matter their stake in the dispute. You speak for only one side, you attack only one side, you offer no solutions, you have no interest in a peaceful outcome for all in the region. The only goal that matters to you is a triumphant victory of Palestinian nationalism at the expense of any other aspiration of any other stakeholder. As you wish. You and others like you perpetuate the conflict. There are Palestinians who really quest for peace and reconciliation. They are few, much fewer than are needed to turn the tide, but they exist. You are not one of them.

[Bad_Daddy 2,209]

You first !

I posted those links to show that the Arabs have tried to demolish the Jews on more than one occasion since the State of Israel was declared. Now it's your turn.

[luckytxn 2,265]

Wonder what the census would have looked at if the Jews hadn't evicted and would not allow the natives back to their homes and land.

[Usui Takumi 1,562]

Lets see what happens when Israel gets nuked and right before the nukes come in they unleash their nukes. Then how many are left?

Recent studies have shown that even a small exchange of nuclear weapons (such as India and Pakistan) could wipe civilisation off of the earth after a few years. Basically the 1980's version of a nuclear winter was an understatement.

[scandal 951]

Wonder what the census would have looked at if the Jews hadn't evicted and would not allow the natives back to their homes and land.

I wonder what the census of Texas would look like if the Americans under President James Polk had not launched a hostile war of acquisition against Mexico and conquered and depopulated the native population of the southwest

Just how do you live with yourself, Txn, knowing that you're living in land occupied at the point of a gun?

[Saddle Bronc 124]

So here's a fun exercise.

Jewish population in 2011 is 5,874,300 with a growth rate of 0.017

Arab population in 2011 is 1,600,100 with a growth rate of 0.025.

In what year do those populations intersect?

I used this online calculator to compute, but an Excel spreadsheet would work just as well.

The answer?

In the year 2177 (that's 166 years from now) the populations will be roughly equal - 96,400,000 Jews and 96,400,000 Arabs.

Of course there's simply no room or resources for 192,800,000 people in such a small arid territory. So long before then, other forces will have intervened to adjust those population growth rates. In what way,we can only guess. However it's pretty clear that the Arab population will not overtake Jewish population through natural growth in Israel at present growth rates.

Now, obviously by combining the populations of the West Bank+Gaza into these statistics, the break-even point is much closer in fact we're very nearly there.

All the more reason why those supporting a state of Israel with its current composition and values would be well served to favor a two-state solution. And those who wish Israel in its current composition and values to decay would urge the unification of the West Bank + Gaza + Israel into a single state.

I know which side of that debate I stand on.

I would agree with a 2-state solution using strict interpretation--Palestine for Arabs (inside West Bank/Gaza Strip--refugees and descendants thereof to go only here, see below) and Israel (inside 1967 borders) for Jews.

On the question of refugees (of 1948)--how would it seem if actors Manoj Kumar and Prem Chopra demanded return to ancestral/birth homes in Lahore or Kapoor family (Randir, Rishi, Karan) to ancestral home in Peshawar (their grandpa Prithviraj--as well as Randhir and Rishi's dad Raj, uncle to Karan--were born in that city) or for politicians L.K. Advani to Karachi or Madan Lal Khurana (who makes much act of being a Delhiite--but actually isn't) to Faisalabad? Or the converse, Pervez Musharraf to Delhi (his birthplace) or Muzaffarpur (from where his grandpa migrated to Delhi around 1903) or Aslam Beg to Azamgarh (birthplace)--or even worse, Altaf Hussein (born in Nine-Zero House, Azizabad Neighbourhood of Karachi) to Agra (dad's birthplace) or Chanderi (mum's birthplace)? Sounds absolutely nonsensical to me--but these are exactly equivalent to what Palestinian Authority has long made a cornerstone demand!

[^_^ 5,021]

I would agree with a 2-state solution using strict interpretation--Palestine for Arabs (inside West Bank/Gaza Strip--refugees and descendants thereof to go only here, see below) and Israel (inside 1967 borders) for Jews.

On the question of refugees (of 1948)--how would it seem if actors Manoj Kumar and Prem Chopra demanded return to ancestral/birth homes in Lahore or Kapoor family (Randir, Rishi, Karan) to ancestral home in Peshawar (their grandpa Prithviraj--as well as Randhir and Rishi's dad Raj, uncle to Karan--were born in that city) or for politicians L.K. Advani to Karachi or Madan Lal Khurana (who makes much act of being a Delhiite--but actually isn't) to Faisalabad? Or the converse, Pervez Musharraf to Delhi (his birthplace) or Muzaffarpur (from where his grandpa migrated to Delhi around 1903) or Aslam Beg to Azamgarh (birthplace)--or even worse, Altaf Hussein (born in Nine-Zero House, Azizabad Neighbourhood of Karachi) to Agra (dad's birthplace) or Chanderi (mum's birthplace)? Sounds absolutely nonsensical to me--but these are exactly equivalent to what Palestinian Authority has long made a cornerstone demand!

Yer killin' me. I'm dyin' here. Stop it!

[luckytxn 2,265]

I wonder what the census of Texas would look like if the Americans under President James Polk had not launched a hostile war of acquisition against Mexico and conquered and depopulated the native population of the southwest

Just how do you live with yourself, Txn, knowing that you're living in land occupied at the point of a gun?

Pretty much as you do where you live. In fact the whole America's was acquired in this way. So I take it that from your example that you are saying that Israel is right to do the same and depopulate Palestine by removal, genocide and any other forms.

[mawilson 2,133]

Yer killin' me. I'm dyin' here. Stop it!

[PalestineMyHeart 1,897]

I notice you don't take any issue with my calculations. In a recent post you cited a population crossover point of 75 years without justification. Not that the absolute number of years till a crossover makes much difference, but for all of your airs of certitude you might do a bit of fact checking yourself now and again.

The ongoing settlement movement is indeed a dagger directed at the heart of the 2 state solution. I oppose the settler movement and the Israeli government stance that perpetuate this policy. I also know full well that hardliners on the Palestinian side, those who vow ongoing hostility to Israel regardless of any territorial compromise, have no interest in a two state solution either. They are a every bit as much a cancer eating away at the prospects of a two state solution.

Being a supporter of a two-state solution is a lonely place to stand. There are nothing but hard line views on all sides and dim prospects for the hard compromises needed for a lasting permanent solution. Nonetheless, I stand in that place, calling for reason, for compromise, for recognition of the legitimate national goals of TWO peoples, the legitimate territorial demands of TWO peoples, and a call for the end to violence and bloodshed.

In all of your diatribes I have yet to hear you speak for this center, for compromise, for acknowledgment of the legitimate rights of BOTH peoples, and condemnation of the wrongs committed by extremists no matter their stake in the dispute. You speak for only one side, you attack only one side, you offer no solutions, you have no interest in a peaceful outcome for all in the region. The only goal that matters to you is a triumphant victory of Palestinian nationalism at the expense of any other aspiration of any other stakeholder. As you wish. You and others like you perpetuate the conflict. There are Palestinians who really quest for peace and reconciliation. They are few, much fewer than are needed to turn the tide, but they exist. You are not one of them.

My response to your whole post was But since you insist...

The first red flag about your post is that you don’t even respond to my statements about demographics in the thread where I wrote it. Instead, you start a whole new topic and don’t even quote me when you “respond,” preferring to substitute your own “writer’s embellishment” in order to tilt at it.

So let us first review what I actually wrote:

Israel was only able to create a sizeable Jewish majority in Israel through artificial means - #1 ethnic cleansing of 80% of the indigenous population, and #2 massive immigration of foreign Jews. Despite these two stopgap measures, the proportion of Jewish Israelis has declined from a high of 89% in 1958 to a low of 75% in 2010. #1 won't fly any more, and #2 is tapped out.

Current demographics show Israel has a 21% Arab population, but its birthrate is twice that of the Jewish population. Unless Israel finds another mother lode of foreign Jews to import as it did with the former Soviet Union, then within another 40 years or so the Jew:Arab ratio will be just 2:1 and Israel will become a bi-national state. Give it another 75 years or so, and Israel will be an Arab-majority state.

So I’ve said that in another 40 plus 75 years or so, Israel will be an Arab majority state (BTW I don’t know what math you’re using, but 40 + 75 = 115 in my book, not 75.)

Also, the “Jewish population” figures you cite (quoted from Israeli government statistics) include 1 million or so Israeli citizens who don’t even live in Israel and have no intention of living there. Furthermore, your calculation does not account for the high rate of emigration from Israel. You can read more about both those factors here:

http://www.fmep.org/analysis/analysis/the-million-missing-israelis-israeli-emigration

But for now, in the spirit of generosity, let us use your figures and your calculator. Lo and behold: It predicts that by 2050, the Jewish population of Israel will number 11,336,351, and Arabs 4,191,581. OMG this is very close to what I predicted - a Jew:Arab ratio of just 2:1 within the next 40 years

Let us take a closer look at how things will change:

When 1948 Palestinians (“Arab Israelis") reach 30-40% of Israel’s population, they will have enough voting clout to start changing policy - including the racist laws that deny them the right to bring Palestinian (or other Arab) spouses to live with them Israel, and, more significantly, deny the refugees the right to return to their property.

Jewish emigration from Israel now exceeds immigration. This is likely to increase, as the FMEP article explains.

And that is why I predict an Arab majority in around 115 years or so.

Still, even if you don’t want to consider the “Arab threat,” there is another significant demographic change that’s about to upset the status quo in Israel which you have not mentioned.

Q: Who are the Israeli Jews who are creating the most baby Israeli Jews ?

A: The Haredim (ultra-Orthodox.) Their birth rate is similar to the Arab birth rate. But nearly half of them won‘t work, most won‘t serve in the army, and the state has to support them.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-01/israel-prosperity-seen-unsustainable-as-haredim-refusal-to-work-takes-toll.html

How is Israel going to afford to sustain this status quo, especially under the growing political power of the Haredim ? They want the West Bank to be part of the State of Israel - in fact they already consider it to be, and the government supports them in their quasi-official mission to Judaize the West Bank.

How long before settler politics force Israel to announce the official annexation of the West Bank into Israel ? And then, what to do about the 3 million or so Palestinians who live there ?

Israel’s problem is not "terror" or "people like me;" it's demographics: Jewish seculars in Israel simply refuse to breed as fast as Israeli Arabs and Haredim - and more and more seculars aren’t sticking around because they’d rather live in a normal country. Thus, Israeli demographics will soon be dominated by these two groups.

Both the Haredim and the Israeli Arabs will certainly utilize their increased political powers. Under its current course, the future of Israel to remain as a "secular-but-Jewish-and-democratic-state" is unsustainable.

My time is short today, but I will respond to the rest of your screed in my next post.

Edited September 27, 2011 by wife_of_mahmoud

[^_^ 5,021]

Take your time, scandal usually doesn't post during business hours.

[luckytxn 2,265]

Take your time, scandal usually doesn't post during business hours.

He also rarely responds to Arabs.

[^_^ 5,021]

He also rarely responds to Arabs.

With all due respect, that's bullshit.

[Sofiyya 1,687]

With all due respect, that's bullshit.

I'm Arab, I think I'm the only one here, and he refuses to respond to me.