Turkish warships will escort aid vessels to Gaza

[PalestineMyHeart 1,897]

The thing is, they don't have to.

As Soffiya has intimated more than once, the Israelis are all for retaliatory action, so breaking the cycle of violence is most likely to fall to the Israelis not responding to a Palestinian attack. So say, for instance, that Palestinian terrorists launch a renewed rocket offensive a couple of days after a cargo ship docks in Gaza. If Israel hasn't been afforded the opportunity to inspect the cargo of any ships that offload at Gaza, then the Israeli government can claim the weapons being used arrived on the ships. Whether they actually did, or come in across the Egyptian border won't matter. There will be enough doubt about the facts, that the Turks will be cast as facilitators. Then, the next time the Turks try escorting a convoy to Gaza, Israel will likely meet them with force. The body count, as I said before, will not be small.

Turkey has a large military, but Gaza is Israel's backyard. To operate away from their bases and in immediate reach of a potentially hostile force, which has top-line equipment, is not something the Turks have faced in recent history. Acting alone, Turkey will be exposed and risks losing assets and personnel. There may be public support in Turkey now for this kind of action, but, if it develops into a firefight where Turkey is viewed as the instigator, and the body count mounts, public opinion can change quickly. And NATO won't back them up, not in the current economic climate.

If Turkey is running a bluff, they are trusting that the Palestinians don't land them in the middle of it. Any move by Hamas, the PRC, or any other group, to take advantage of the situation to try and bring Turkey into a firefight could blow up in Turkey's face very easily. On the other hand, it could serve the Palestinians well to do just that, to bring a nation that, until recently, used to be an Israeli ally, into the Middle East conflict against Israel.

Of course, all of this is worst case scenario. I hope it doesn't go down any of these roads. One more dead body is one too many, and adventurism of any sort has a nasty habit of leaving them lying around

#1. Israel instigates more than it "retaliates."

#2. Do you actually believe that Palestinians live in some sort of sensory deprivation tank and are unaware of what is going on between Turkey and Israel ?

#3. Erdogan will be in Egypt on Monday to sign a military cooperation agreement. He has spoken of his intention to visit Gaza at some point soon. I would not be surprised if he shows up there too next week.

#4. There is no doubt that any Turkish Flotilla headed to Gaza would be carefully coordinated with the Hamas government. Erdogan is not a clueless ####### reacting in blind anger - if you studied his actions since the Mavi Marmara, you might start to connect the dots.

#5. Considering the current situation - with the Egyptian Army on the south (no longer kept on a leash by a U.S.-bribed dictator, and soon to be in a military alliance with Turkey) and a reloaded Hezbollah on the north - it would be incredibly stupid and reckless for the Israeli government to try to start something with the Turkish Navy in international or Gaza territorial waters (despite any tough-guy rhetoric.)

[Sofiyya 1,687]

More sabre rattling.

Israel to ‘punish’ Turkey

Jerusalem fights back: Foreign Minister Lieberman formulates series of tough moves in response to Turkish steps; Israel to cooperate with Armenian lobby in US, may offer military aid to Kurdish rebels

Shimon Shiffer

Published: 09.09.11, 08:54 / Israel News

Jerusalem to punish Erdogan: Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman has decided to adopt a series of harsh measures in response to Turkey’s latest anti-Israeli moves, Yedioth Ahronoth reported Friday.

Senior Foreign Ministry officials convened Thursday to prepare for a meeting to be held Saturday with Lieberman on the matter. Saturday’s session will be dedicated to discussing Israel’s response to Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s recent threats and his decision to downgrade Ankara’s diplomatic ties with Jerusalem.

Following Thursday’s meeting, officials assessed that Turkey is not interested in an Israeli apology at this time and prefers to exploit the dispute with Jerusalem in order to promote Ankara’s status in the Muslim world. Lieberman therefore decided there was no point in seeking creative formulas for apologizing, instead choosing to focus Israel’s efforts on punishing Turkey.

The Foreign Ministry has now decided to proceed with the formulation of a diplomatic and security “toolbox” to be used against the Turks. The first move would be to issue a travel warning urging all Israeli military veterans to refrain from traveling to Turkey. The advisory will be especially harsh as it will also urge Israelis to refrain from boarding connections in Turkey.

Another planned Israeli move is the facilitation of cooperation with Turkey’s historic rivals, the Armenians. During Lieberman’s visit to the United States this month, the foreign minister is expected to meet with leaders of the Armenian lobby and propose anti-Turkish cooperation in Congress.

The implication of this move could be Israeli assistance in promoting international recognition of the Armenian holocaust, a measure that would gravely harm Turkey. Israel may also back Armenia in its dispute vis-à-vis Turkey over control of Mount Ararat.

‘Turkey better show respect’

Lieberman is also planning to set meetings with the heads of Kurdish rebel group PKK in Europe in order to “cooperate with them and boost them in every possible area.” In these meetings, the Kurds may ask Israel for military aid in the form of training and arms supplies, a move that would constitute a major anti-Turkish position should it materialize.

However, the violent clashes between Turkey and the Kurds only constitute one reason prompting accusations that Ankara is violating human rights. Hence, another means in Lieberman’s “toolbox” vis-à-vis Erdogan is a diplomatic campaign where Israeli missions worldwide will be instructed to join the fight and report illegal Turkish moves against minorities.

The tough response formulated by Lieberman stems, among other things, from the foreign minister’s desire to make it clear to Erdogan that his anti-Israeli moves are not a “one-way street.”

Officials in Jerusalem also noted that Turkey’s global status at this time is not promising as it is, adding that Ankara is embroiled in tensions vis-à-vis NATO and Greece, while Erdogan’s relations with Syria and Iran are also not favorable.

“We’ll exact a price from Erdogan that will prove to him that messing with Israel doesn’t pay off,” Lieberman said. “Turkey better treat us with respect and common decency.”

Edited September 10, 2011 by Sofiyya

[Bad_Daddy 2,209]

#5. Considering the current situation - with the Egyptian Army on the south (no longer kept on a leash by a U.S.-bribed dictator, and soon to be in a military alliance with Turkey) and a reloaded Hezbollah on the north - it would be incredibly stupid and reckless for the Israeli government to try to start something with the Turkish Navy in international or Gaza territorial waters (despite any tough-guy rhetoric.)

I wouldn't count too much on #5 seeing how Egypt is pretty much a third world country as are most of Israel's neighbors. Last time Egypt tangled with Israel it lost a large chunk of land...that Israel gave back to Egypt.

Edited September 10, 2011 by Why_Me

[PalestineMyHeart 1,897]

Netanyahu's office distances itself from Foreign Minister's planned measures against Turkey

[PalestineMyHeart 1,897]

I wouldn't count too much on #5 seeing how Egypt is pretty much a third world country as are most of Israel's neighbors. Last time Egypt tangled with Israel it lost a large chunk of land...that Israel gave back to Egypt.

History 101.

Israel occupied the Sinai in 1967.

"Last time Egypt tangled with Israel" was 1973 - and this war (which was essentially a draw) was what led to Israel coughing up the Sinai.

Edited September 10, 2011 by wife_of_mahmoud

[Bad_Daddy 2,209]

History 101.

Israel occupied the Sinai in 1967.

"Last time Egypt tangled with Israel" was 1973 - and this war (which was essentially a draw) was what led to Israel coughing up the Sinai.

History 102. It was the Camp David Agreement where the US promised to fund Mubaraks government along with giving Israel more aid that had the biggest impact.

Again Israels neighbors are pretty much under developed third world countries. I don't see any of them giving Israel much of a fight. Especially Syria.

[PalestineMyHeart 1,897]

History 102. It was the Camp David Agreement where the US promised to fund Mubaraks government along with giving Israel more aid that had the biggest impact.

Again Israels neighbors are pretty much under developed third world countries. I don't see any of them giving Israel much of a fight. Especially Syria.

#1. The Camp David Agreement was directly due to the 1973 war. Please read reputable historians on what went on, and why.

#2. Israel was unable to defeat third world Hezbollah, and has not been able to eradicate third world Hamas. Both of those forces are much smaller and much less well-equipped than either Egypt's or Turkey's military.

#3. I never mentioned Syria (or Jordan, the other neighbor) as factors in this.

Edited September 10, 2011 by wife_of_mahmoud

[Bad_Daddy 2,209]

#1. The Camp David Agreement was directly due to the 1973 war. Please read reputable historians on what went on, and why.

#2. Israel was unable to defeat third world Hezbollah, and has not been able to eradicate third world Hamas. Both of those forces are much smaller and much less well-equipped than either Egypt's or Turkey's military.

#3. I never mentioned Syria (or Jordan, the other neighbor) as factors in this.

I know very well that Egypt was looking for US aid and support, and so was Israel. Money talks and bs walks hence the Camp David Accords.

As far as Israel "defeating Hamas and Hezbollah", Israel had about zero resistance when it invaded the West Banks, and when Israel invaded Lebanon Hezbollah couldn't run fast enough. When Hezbollah can't hide in schools and behind civilians it's pretty much a neutered military force. What Arabs call a "victory" most countries call a "defeat".

Now I'm not sure if your old enough to recall when Israel marched to Beirut to take care of the PLO back in '82 but if you don't, read up on it. Israeli's went through Lebanon like a hot knife cuts through butter.

A bunch of Iranian backed religious zealot nutters don't make for an organized fighting force. Shooting rockets from schools and firing AK's up in the air is one thing, fighting against an organized military force backed up with air power is another ball game all together.

If I was an Arab I wouldn't be so much worried about Israel as I would be about living a third world existence in a third world country.

[Sofiyya 1,687]

If I was an Arab I wouldn't be so much worried about Israel as I would be about living a third world existence in a third world country.

Alaska's a third world country compared to the rest of the US

[Dan and Judy 614]

History 101.

Israel occupied the Sinai in 1967.

"Last time Egypt tangled with Israel" was 1973 - and this war (which was essentially a draw) was what led to Israel coughing up the Sinai.

It was not a draw, It was an Egyptian rout Only stopped by the threat of direct Soviet intervention.

The US and the Soviets decided the terms.

The US and the Soviets came close to their own war over this.

[Bad_Daddy 2,209]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yom_Kippur_War

Yom Kippur War

The war began with a massive and successful Egyptian crossing of the Suez Canal during the first three days, after which they dug in, settling into a stalemate. The Syrians coordinated their attack on the Golan Heights to coincide with the Egyptian offensive and initially made threatening gains against the greatly outnumbered Israelis. Within a week, Israel recovered and launched a four-day counter-offensive, driving deep into Syria. To relieve this pressure, the Egyptians went back on the offensive, but were decisively defeated; the Israelis then counterattacked at the seam between two Egyptian armies, crossed the Suez Canal, and advanced southward and westward in over a week of heavy fighting. An October 22 United Nations-brokered ceasefire quickly unraveled, with each side blaming the other for the breach. By 24 October, the Israelis had improved their positions considerably and completed their encirclement of Egypt's Third Army. This development led to tensions between the United States and the Soviet Union. As a result, a second ceasefire was imposed cooperatively on October 25 to end the war. At the conclusion of hostilities, Israeli forces were 40 kilometres (25 mi) from Damascus and 101 kilometres (63 mi) from Cairo.

Edited September 10, 2011 by Why_Me

[Pooky 3,791]

#1. Israel instigates more than it "retaliates."

#2. Do you actually believe that Palestinians live in some sort of sensory deprivation tank and are unaware of what is going on between Turkey and Israel ?

#3. Erdogan will be in Egypt on Monday to sign a military cooperation agreement. He has spoken of his intention to visit Gaza at some point soon. I would not be surprised if he shows up there too next week.

#4. There is no doubt that any Turkish Flotilla headed to Gaza would be carefully coordinated with the Hamas government. Erdogan is not a clueless ####### reacting in blind anger - if you studied his actions since the Mavi Marmara, you might start to connect the dots.

#5. Considering the current situation - with the Egyptian Army on the south (no longer kept on a leash by a U.S.-bribed dictator, and soon to be in a military alliance with Turkey) and a reloaded Hezbollah on the north - it would be incredibly stupid and reckless for the Israeli government to try to start something with the Turkish Navy in international or Gaza territorial waters (despite any tough-guy rhetoric.)

Naïveté in extremis.

Turkey is in this for Turkey, not for some noble cause. I never said Erdogan was clueless, but I suspect his motives differ a great deal from your idea of them.

[mawilson 2,133]

#5. Considering the current situation - with the Egyptian Army on the south (no longer kept on a leash by a U.S.-bribed dictator, and soon to be in a military alliance with Turkey) and a reloaded Hezbollah on the north - it would be incredibly stupid and reckless for the Israeli government to try to start something with the Turkish Navy in international or Gaza territorial waters (despite any tough-guy rhetoric.)

Before you cream your pants at the thought of Israel's destruction by the unlikely alliance of the Turkish Navy, Egyptian Army, Hezbollah and Hamas, let me remind you that it wouldn't be the first time Israel faced overwhelming odds against the combined military might of its neighbors and won.

[mawilson 2,133]

As for "no longer kept on a leash by a US-bribed dictator", have we cut our foreign aid to Egypt? No? Then they are still on a leash.

[PalestineMyHeart 1,897]

I know very well that Egypt was looking for US aid and support, and so was Israel. Money talks and bs walks hence the Camp David Accords.

The success of a military campaign is determined by whether it completes its mission. Egypt initiated the 1973 war with the goals of regaining the Sinai and the Suez Canal. And it achieved its goals.

This paper will analyze the changes which the Egyptian leadership made prior to the 1973 October War which enabled it to emerge as the strategic victor.

...

The real genius of President Sadat's approach to the upcoming conflict was found in his ability to synchronize his objectives, which were to regain the Suez Canal, regain a foothold in the Sinai again, and to begin a serious peace process with Israel, with the military capabilities at his disposal. His vision of a "limited" conflict with Israel waged for "limited" objectives completely broke all conventional paradigms for the Middle East. Israel was completely unprepared to wage such a campaign. This provided Egypt with a unique strategic initiative which paved the way for its success.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/report/1997/Moulton.htm

As far as Israel "defeating Hamas and Hezbollah", Israel had about zero resistance when it invaded the West Banks, and when Israel invaded Lebanon Hezbollah couldn't run fast enough. When Hezbollah can't hide in schools and behind civilians it's pretty much a neutered military force. What Arabs call a "victory" most countries call a "defeat".

#1. Hamas. Note that I didn't say "defeat" Hamas; I said "eradicate" them (which has been Israel's stated goal.) Israeli invasions of the West Bank have very little to do with Hamas - apart from Hebron, the West Bank is the Fatah power base.

And as I mentioned before, the 4th or 5th best-equipped military in the world doing dirt donuts over a mostly captive population with no army, no air force and no navy is not really any significant indication of fighting prowess. This was the IDF's mistake - it became over-confident because it had been able to conduct and continue its occupation with relatively little effort.

#2. Hezbollah. I don't know what history you are citing. Even the IDF agrees that Hezbollah stood their ground and fought, and were surprised by its effectiveness. As the IDF's own soldiers stated: "They are nothing like Hamas or the Palestinians."

Israel achieved none of its stated goals in 2006 - it did not take back its two captured prisoners of war, it did not end Hezbollah's prominence or military capability, and it did not end Iranian influence in Lebanon.

Despite Israel assuring the United States of a “quick and decisive” resolution to the conflict, Hezbollah’s short-range Katyusha rockets continued to rain down on the Israeli population.2 As days went by, it became increasingly apparent to both the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) and western military analysts that the IAF was having little effect on Hezbollah’s rockets.

When the IDF reluctantly moved its ground forces into southern Lebanon, the apparent ineffectiveness of the operation and the stubborn resistance of Hezbollah fighters stunned military observers worldwide. After years of highly successful counterinsurgency (COIN) operations against the Palestinians, the IDF appeared remarkably inept to conduct a successful conventional ground campaign against Hezbollah.

Without question, the Israeli ground campaign revealed an army confused by its new doctrine. Soldiers were deficient in training and equipment, and senior officers seemed woefully unprepared to fight a “real war.” By the time the United Nations (UN) cease-fire went into effect on 14 August 2006, many military analysts were convinced the IDF had suffered a significant defeat. One source held that Hezbollah’s military and political victory was absolute and irrefutable.3 Even more revealing were the comments by Mossad Chief, Meir Degan, and the head of Shin Bet, Yuval Diskin, during a meeting with Prime Minister Olmert in the immediate aftermath of the war. Both men pointedly told Olmert “the war was a national catastrophe and Israel suffered a critical blow.”

http://carl.army.mil/download/csipubs/matthewsOP26.pdf

You don't have to take my word for it. Read the official Israel take on it - the Winograd report (an investigation ordered by the Israeli government as to why the war was such a disastrous failure for Israel.) Here is a summary in English:

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/winogradreport-04302007.pdf

Now I'm not sure if your old enough to recall when Israel marched to Beirut to take care of the PLO back in '82 but if you don't, read up on it. Israeli's went through Lebanon like a hot knife cuts through butter.

The IDF *did* manage to dislodge the PLO from Southern Lebanon (killing some 20,000 civilians in just the first year,) but the action did not suppress PLO resistance in the West Bank - which was the whole stated reason for going after Lebanon. Israel was also unable to create the new political order it wanted in Lebanon, with a purely Maronite government.

Israel also "achieved" the destruction of its Israeli-Maronite alliance, caused Amal (Shi'a) to switch sides from fighting against the PLO to becoming its ally, and provided the direct catalyst for the creation of Hezbollah. Nice job !

A bunch of Iranian backed religious zealot nutters don't make for an organized fighting force. Shooting rockets from schools and firing AK's up in the air is one thing, fighting against an organized military force backed up with air power is another ball game all together.

If I was an Arab I wouldn't be so much worried about Israel as I would be about living a third world existence in a third world country.

This question deserves its own post, so I will continue in the next one.