OCTOBER 2011 visa bulletine prediction

[benefit 0]

so the thing is that when pd moved significantly in 2010...the persons who filed in i130 for their spouce have also filed i485 bcaz their pd was current....ppl with i130 filed and pd is current they immediately filed i485 for adjustment of status (((whose pd was 2008 and 2009))) .....

There are too much cases of adjustment of status in 2007 and 2008.....and yes in 2009 cases are not much....so 2009 will get passed very soon.....

As far as 2010 is concerned...i think there is a huge filing in later half of 2010...so i think there vl be slow movement in 2010.....

I agree with your prediction. My point is: the amazing forward movement of F2A VB was caused by two reasons: (1) the real demand starting from late 2008 till 2009 was significantly reduced due to the poor economy; (2) the poor coordination between DOS and USCIS -- USCIS processed I130 for several years. Those overseas beneficiaries could not start the process with NVC/DOS before the I130s were approved, thus DOS may not see the demand/utilize the visa numbers. USCIS started to process I130s (mostly those PDs in 2007-2010) in 5 months from the end of year 2010, thus the demand surged and the retrogression happened.

Now, since almost the I130s between 2007-2010 have been approved and even NVC cases have been completed, DOS is able to see the demand clearly. There may be some fluctuations -- some upgrades, age-outs, or changed their mind to continue/discontinue the immigration processes. But I think that's not a big portion and DOS has sufficient historical data to estimate the ratio.

My conclusions are:

1) VB in the FY 2012 will not retrogress, but will not go back to Aug 2010 next month either.

2) VB can advance fast in 2009, and even the first half of 2010, because a) low demand in this period, as the reason I stated above; b) some "lucky" people with PDs in 2008-2010 filed AOS in year 2010, and got green cards -- they will not be the demand any more (though those who filed AOS but were affected by retrogression will still use FY2012 visa numbers)

3) VB will advance a bit slowly from middle of 2010, due to the increasing I130 filings. But do not be too pessimistic -- from the USCIS I130 preference group filing statistics, filings from March 2010 increased, but less than doubled compared with 2009. I think it maybe safe to assume VB will advance 2-3 months each time in 2010.

Just my two cents.

[Arman81 0]

Hi guys just a question I little confused about Adjument of status my PD is nov 2009 and case complete on march 2011 and now still waiting for interview. in this point what I have to do and what is the rule of adjustment of status please clear me alot people say we r applying for it

[Sirach123 2]

I agree with your prediction. My point is: the amazing forward movement of F2A VB was caused by two reasons: (1) the real demand starting from late 2008 till 2009 was significantly reduced due to the poor economy; (2) the poor coordination between DOS and USCIS -- USCIS processed I130 for several years. Those overseas beneficiaries could not start the process with NVC/DOS before the I130s were approved, thus DOS may not see the demand/utilize the visa numbers. USCIS started to process I130s (mostly those PDs in 2007-2010) in 5 months from the end of year 2010, thus the demand surged and the retrogression happened.

Now, since almost the I130s between 2007-2010 have been approved and even NVC cases have been completed, DOS is able to see the demand clearly. There may be some fluctuations -- some upgrades, age-outs, or changed their mind to continue/discontinue the immigration processes. But I think that's not a big portion and DOS has sufficient historical data to estimate the ratio.

My conclusions are:

1) VB in the FY 2012 will not retrogress, but will not go back to Aug 2010 next month either.

2) VB can advance fast in 2009, and even the first half of 2010, because a) low demand in this period, as the reason I stated above; b) some "lucky" people with PDs in 2008-2010 filed AOS in year 2010, and got green cards -- they will not be the demand any more (though those who filed AOS but were affected by retrogression will still use FY2012 visa numbers)

3) VB will advance a bit slowly from middle of 2010, due to the increasing I130 filings. But do not be too pessimistic -- from the USCIS I130 preference group filing statistics, filings from March 2010 increased, but less than doubled compared with 2009. I think it maybe safe to assume VB will advance 2-3 months each time in 2010.

Just my two cents.

Fully agree with items 2 and 3 but a bit of reaction on item 1. I think Aug 1, 2010 PD will be back until December 2011 clearing all retrogressed PDs by then.

[miraya 8]

Hi guys just a question I little confused about Adjument of status my PD is nov 2009 and case complete on march 2011 and now still waiting for interview. in this point what I have to do and what is the rule of adjustment of status please clear me alot people say we r applying for it

I'm confused with your question when you say case comple is at NVC or I-130 Approval?PPl who are applying for Adjument of status have b nothing to do with NVC.USCIS Does not sent those cases to NVC.

If you PD is Nov 2009 and you want to apply for Adjument of status.There is nothing you can do now except wait for your PD to be current.Once your PD is current you can file for I-485 along with AP/EAD etc..

[Sirach123 2]

Hi guys just a question I little confused about Adjument of status my PD is nov 2009 and case complete on march 2011 and now still waiting for interview. in this point what I have to do and what is the rule of adjustment of status please clear me alot people say we r applying for it

Adjustment of status is for beneficiaries that are already present in the US. Are you? If you are then apply for it.

[jhp 10]

one more thing friends.....is there any way we can estimate 2009 and 2010 filings for f2a???? bcaz if we can,the whole prediction will eventually be reality....

[Sirach123 2]

I'm confused with your question when you say case comple is at NVC or I-130 Approval?PPl who are applying for Adjument of status have b nothing to do with NVC.USCIS Does not sent those cases to NVC.

If you PD is Nov 2009 and you want to apply for Adjument of status.There is nothing you can do now except wait for your PD to be current.Once your PD is current you can file for I-485 along with AP/EAD etc..

I suspect he is in consular processing in his country.

[Arman81 0]

What I mean was my PD is nov 2009 and case complete 2011 march so at this point do I have to do any thing or just to wait for my PD become current for interview. The reason I asked the question bcoz when my case was complete the NVC was told that to wait 8 weeks it's more than 18 weeks now I didn't hear anything from them so now what I have to do just wait for PD become current for interview for what?

One more question from u all plz when do you guys think my PD nov 2009 will be current ?

[Sirach123 2]

one more thing friends.....is there any way we can estimate 2009 and 2010 filings for f2a???? bcaz if we can,the whole prediction will eventually be reality....

This one is a wild thing if you will.

Numerically that's difficult but maybe timeline will. Nvc is processing at hand the PDs from dec2008 to sept2010 as we read ds3032 or COA issuance stop on oct2010pd. This is a 23 months period. Spread these over a 9 month period and it will come out to be an average of 3 months PD per month. I got 9 months based on nvc advice that they think they will not process your case if visa is not available in 9 months. Sorry guys I stopped relying on visa statistics.

[Sirach123 2]

What I mean was my PD is nov 2009 and case complete 2011 march so at this point do I have to do any thing or just to wait for my PD become current for interview. The reason I asked the question bcoz when my case was complete the NVC was told that to wait 8 weeks it's more than 18 weeks now I didn't hear anything from them so now what I have to do just wait for PD become current for interview for what?

One more question from u all plz when do you guys think my PD nov 2009 will be current ?

Please answer the question whether you are in your country now or in the US. Besides your PD is not current yet so there is nothing you can do right now except to wait for your PD becoming current. My best guess for your PD to be current is February 2012.

[jhp 10]

This one is a wild thing if you will.

Numerically that's difficult but maybe timeline will. Nvc is processing at hand the PDs from dec2008 to sept2010 as we read ds3032 or COA issuance stop on oct2010pd. This is a 23 months period. Spread these over a 9 month period and it will come out to be an average of 3 months PD per month. I got 9 months based on nvc advice that they think they will not process your case if visa is not available in 9 months. Sorry guys I stopped relying on visa statistics.

but how can we rely on NVC??? Bcaz NVC had sent DS 3032 to ppl whose pd is jun 2010 in jan 2011 or before...that means as per NVC cutoff date must be current for jun 2010 within 9 month from jan 2011 means before sep 2011....but it didnot happen...so we cannot rely on the 9 month prediction of NVC....correct me if i am wrong

[Ma^Kali 0]

but how can we rely on NVC??? Bcaz NVC had sent DS 3032 to ppl whose pd is jun 2010 in jan 2011 or before...that means as per NVC cutoff date must be current for jun 2010 within 9 month from jan 2011 means before sep 2011....but it didnot happen...so we cannot rely on the 9 month prediction of NVC....correct me if i am wrong

What NVC/Dos statement is that IF they think you're PD will be current within 9 months, then they will start sending you DS 3032. It was happened for us last year thats how We got our case processed by NVC and also our PD was current too within 9 months..but Unfortunately didn't make it through interview. So what's your PD now???

[Sirach123 2]

but how can we rely on NVC??? Bcaz NVC had sent DS 3032 to ppl whose pd is jun 2010 in jan 2011 or before...that means as per NVC cutoff date must be current for jun 2010 within 9 month from jan 2011 means before sep 2011....but it didnot happen...so we cannot rely on the 9 month prediction of NVC....correct me if i am wrong

Correct, got me here. What I tried to establish is the average advance period. The 9 month period for case example is October. Who knows next PD is jun2010. Nope

It's not going to happen, hehe.

[Ma^Kali 0]

I agree with your prediction. My point is: the amazing forward movement of F2A VB was caused by two reasons: (1) the real demand starting from late 2008 till 2009 was significantly reduced due to the poor economy; (2) the poor coordination between DOS and USCIS -- USCIS processed I130 for several years. Those overseas beneficiaries could not start the process with NVC/DOS before the I130s were approved, thus DOS may not see the demand/utilize the visa numbers. USCIS started to process I130s (mostly those PDs in 2007-2010) in 5 months from the end of year 2010, thus the demand surged and the retrogression happened.

Now, since almost the I130s between 2007-2010 have been approved and even NVC cases have been completed, DOS is able to see the demand clearly. There may be some fluctuations -- some upgrades, age-outs, or changed their mind to continue/discontinue the immigration processes. But I think that's not a big portion and DOS has sufficient historical data to estimate the ratio.

My conclusions are:

1) VB in the FY 2012 will not retrogress, but will not go back to Aug 2010 next month either.

2) VB can advance fast in 2009, and even the first half of 2010, because a) low demand in this period, as the reason I stated above; b) some "lucky" people with PDs in 2008-2010 filed AOS in year 2010, and got green cards -- they will not be the demand any more (though those who filed AOS but were affected by retrogression will still use FY2012 visa numbers)

3) VB will advance a bit slowly from middle of 2010, due to the increasing I130 filings. But do not be too pessimistic -- from the USCIS I130 preference group filing statistics, filings from March 2010 increased, but less than doubled compared with 2009. I think it maybe safe to assume VB will advance 2-3 months each time in 2010.

Just my two cents.

Agree yaar!!!!!!

[Sirach123 2]

I have also a question and I know you guys are good at this.

My daughter's PD Dec 12, 2008 is almost certain it's going to be current in October, when do you thInk is the day or week that her interview is going to be scheduled? I am planning now for my vacation from work. Another thing, my daughter is 14 yrs old. Can her brother accompany her during interview instead of my wife or me? Appreciate for sharing your experience. Thank you.