August 2011 Visa Bulletin Predictions

[Mrs Green 6]

I agree with Maroon. I believe that there will be a steady movement of at least 4mths per VB posting in the F2A category as the majority of the cases in the last 4 years were filed in 2010.

Based on the below paragraph taken from his link, there should be more visa numbers available for F2A applicants resulting in faster movement of cases filed up to Dec 2010.

The 1990 Act increased the number of visas which are available for the 2A class, which provided

a greater equalization of the visa waiting period for applicants from all countries. At present,

only Mexico has a visa cut-off date earlier than that for all other countries. It is apparent,

however, that the large waiting list will ensure the continued oversubscription and a considerable

delay between the filing of a petition and the applicant's turn for visa issuance being reached.

One result of the extended wait for a 2A visa is that some of the children (i.e., under 21 years of

age) registered in this class will not be reached for visas before their 21st birthday. In such

situation, they are automatically moved into the 2B class (for unmarried adult sons/daughters of

permanent residents) as soon as they turn 21. The wait for a 2B visa is even longer than in 2A.

The four year interval between the cut-off and calendar dates for most countries assures that

many petitioners will be eligible to naturalize before 2A visa numbers become available for their

spouses and children. Upon naturalization of the petitioner, a pending 2A case is converted

automatically into the "Immediate Relative" visa category, which is not subject to numerical

limit and therefore has no visa waiting period. As a result, the amount of cases being processed

in the "Immediate Relative" category is likely to increase, and the rate of new F2A filings would

stabilize the waiting list.

Edited July 13, 2011 by fashiondoll

[jhp 10]

I agree with Maroon. I believe that there will be a steady movement of at least 4mths per VB posting in the F2A category as the majority of the cases in the last 4 years were filed in 2010.

Based on the below paragraph taken from his link, there should be more visa numbers available for F2A applicants resulting in faster movement of cases filed up to Dec 2010.

The 1990 Act increased the number of visas which are available for the 2A class, which provided

a greater equalization of the visa waiting period for applicants from all countries. At present,

only Mexico has a visa cut-off date earlier than that for all other countries. It is apparent,

however, that the large waiting list will ensure the continued oversubscription and a considerable

delay between the filing of a petition and the applicant's turn for visa issuance being reached.

One result of the extended wait for a 2A visa is that some of the children (i.e., under 21 years of

age) registered in this class will not be reached for visas before their 21st birthday. In such

situation, they are automatically moved into the 2B class (for unmarried adult sons/daughters of

permanent residents) as soon as they turn 21. The wait for a 2B visa is even longer than in 2A.

The four year interval between the cut-off and calendar dates for most countries assures that

many petitioners will be eligible to naturalize before 2A visa numbers become available for their

spouses and children. Upon naturalization of the petitioner, a pending 2A case is converted

automatically into the "Immediate Relative" visa category, which is not subject to numerical

limit and therefore has no visa waiting period. As a result, the amount of cases being processed

in the "Immediate Relative" category is likely to increase, and the rate of new F2A filings would

stabilize the waiting list.

but there is a bulk of filing in 2010....so it may slow when pd vl come closer to 2010...so i may take too long for 2010 and 2011 filers...

[h0tgunn 1]

Can someone enlighten this? Is this really bad for F1 category. PD got stuck to Aug96 and my PD is Dec96. Is it possible i can still have my appointment this year???

D. SEPTEMBER VISA AVAILABILITY

Heavy applicant demand for numbers in the Family First preference could require retrogression of some of the September Family First preference cut-off dates. This action may be necessary to keep visa issuances within the respective annual preference numerical limits. If this were to occur they could be expected to return to the previous cut-off date for October, the first month of the new fiscal year.

[sgam 0]

i will pray for u hopefuly ur loved one with u soon Ameen

Thanks Kas17, i'm really hoping! God Bless...

[Mrs Green 6]

JHP ---Think positive

It is expected that a number of persons in the category will naturalised therefore allowing for additional visa numbers to be available. Cases filed in 2010/2011 would move up in the queue.

The only persons who would not benefit greatly would be persons under 21 who were recently filed for and would age out in say two years time. In the past, the average waiting time was 4-5 years so let's hope that the current trend continues so persons filing in 2011 and beyond will see less waiting time.

Edited July 13, 2011 by fashiondoll

[jhp 10]

JHP ---Think positive

It is expected that a number of persons in the category will naturalised therefore allowing for additional visa numbers to be available. Cases filed in 2010/2011 would move up in the queue.

The only persons who would not benefit greatly would be persons under 21 who were recently filed for and would age out in say two years time. In the past, the average waiting time was 4-5 years so let's hope that the current trend continues so persons filing in 2011 and beyond will see less waiting time.

actually..as the time period between filing and getting visa shorten...less ppl vl get naturalisation ;...simple logic and so more ppl would like to be in f2a..simple logic...and so exra load on f2a will result in longer waitings...so simply one cann't say that we can get visa within 2 or 3 year time...simple...so i am positive but bcaz of heavy filings and chances of ppl moving to immidiate relative is all together vl affect our estimation...correct me if i m wrong..

[ricky80s 8]

man cant wait .. my wife's PD is Aug 09... any idea guys how long its gonna take ?

[dhaka dream 0]

hi everyone,

can any one pl let me give idea when my wife can get interview date,her PD is Oct,27 2008.

thanks all.

[kumbahara 3]

Just curious, waiting to hear from folks with PD in 2008/2009 has anyone benefited from the surge in the PD movement last year at all? As I assume, the PDs should have been current for most of the folks with 2008 PD from June 2010 - Dec 2010. Was it because 130 was pending? Or is it that its pending at different stages within NVC/ Consulates?

[fn2 0]

hi everyone,

can any one pl let me give idea when my wife can get interview date,her PD is Oct,27 2008.

thanks all.

Should be covered in September Visa bulletin.

[kas17 0]

Dude,

Where did you bring that 70% of 2008 to 2009, is there any reference for that? There are couple of reasons which I do not think your reasoning is strong enough:

1. The processing time for form I-130 is five months so more likely most of applicants who applied before Sep. 2010 have their file in NVC, actually that is why retrogression happened in first place!

2. The more reliable report in terms of VB movement is following link: http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/WaitingListItem.pdf this report gives you better idea how many applicants are waiting in the list especially for 2010 fiscal year

3. I think it is better to consider the most recent month's movement in order to come up with near future pattern

It is just a raw guess (that is why I proposed the three scenarios) given all uncertainties associated to the prediction!

May 5 2011 case completed thn i called nvc he said most of files still not completed thatz why cut of date is below

[red apple 0]

hi everyone,

can any one pl let me give idea when my wife can get interview date,her PD is Oct,27 2008.

thanks all.

my PD is 23 oct08，i wish September is our turn！！

[miesha 0]

so what happened to all those ppl from india that had not received their interview letters??

any luck??

[Twinklestar 0]

so what happened to all those ppl from india that had not received their interview letters??

any luck??

nothing yet! I called nvc and chennai consulate today. They asked me to call them back on august 1st. :-(

[Sirach123 2]

Just curious, waiting to hear from folks with PD in 2008/2009 has anyone benefited from the surge in the PD movement last year at all? As I assume, the PDs should have been current for most of the folks with 2008 PD from June 2010 - Dec 2010. Was it because 130 was pending? Or is it that its pending at different stages within NVC/ Consulates?

This is my view. All PDs that were documentarily completed at NVC on or before September 2010 got their interviews in last quarter of 2010. I-130 is not a problem at all unless with problem of documents. The surge primarily benefitted the 2008 PDs as their waiting time was reduced from 4 yrs to an average of 3 years.