August 2011 Visa Bulletin Predictions

[ramzach 0]

hopefully i've been waiting for a long, thanks

[Ma^Kali 0]

Just my assumption for AUG VB-2011

WORLDWIDE CHARGABILITY--July 22, 2008

MEXICO, INDIA, PHILI, and CHINA will stay same- MAR 22, 2008

[Sirach123 2]

ame='Arman81' timestamp='1309837366' post='4762783']

I hope I cant wait for my PD current which is nov 2009 . I have a question my mother file for my brother his PD is nov 2009 and his case is complete on march 2011 and June 19 2011 he is now 21 . Is he still in f2a category any idea please

Once he turned 21 it would be F2b. wow that's bad news hope he'll get his interview soon before he turns 21.. i was 24 when my parents filed my petiton and i've waited 11 yrs to get everything done...and now im filling for my wife PD June 2009 .

Pray hard and hope for the best

Once he turned 21 it would be F2b. wow that's bad news hope he'll get his interview soon before he turns 21.. i was 24 when my parents filed my petiton and i've waited 11 yrs to get everything done...and now im filling for my wife PD June 2009 .

Pray hard and hope for the best

Armani81, Wait a minute: re ur brother's case is interesting because in the CSPA law his age is frozen when his priority date becomes current and then subtract the period of approval of the I-130. I think his pD became current last year. This is where you need a lawyer to advice you.

[kumbahara 3]

The fact that there is no or little transparency in the DoS system to print out PD (priority dates) suggests clearly an flawed process. In all, it might be a defunct excel sheet on someone's desk that at best portrays to stakeholders that it is making an best effort guesstimate while its other reports lead us to believe an entirely different story.

My conclusion of the above stated argument stems from

1. Report of Visa Office 2010 - http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/statistics/statistics_5240.html

Per DoS stated limits, approx 88K visas (based on annual numerical limits - http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf )should be issued for F2A (My interest in F2A, since I have an application pending, PD May 2011). With the 7% numerical limit on per country basis, it should round to 6000 (approx). Look closely at visas issued in FY 2010 - India, for instance. It totals to 910 for non exempt, as opposed to the allocated 6000. Where does the rest of the visas flowed to - F4!

2. Operation of the Numerical Control Process report on DoS website - http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Immigrant%20Visa%20Control%20System_operation%20of.pdf

It states that the way VO determines the PD movement is by analyzing

a. Previous month usage from consulates and USCIS (I-485 adjudication)

b. Remaining visas (assuming from discussion above), the aforesaid numerical limits.

But wait a minute - VO does only account for pending applications based on 130 approval (for F2A cases) pending in NVC/NBC (National Visa/Benefits Center) or perhaps only approved cases from NVC.

Based on above, I just cant but doubt the means the VO is using to estimate the priority date might be even close to what it is supposed to be based on INA regulations. The lack of transparency aggravates the concern and seemingly is evident that the visas (atleast for F2A) are diverted to other categories owing to

1. Slow processing of USCIS on I130 applications and lack of system to try for premium processing, so as to not waste the visas that are supposed to be allocated in the first place.

2. Neglect on the part of CIS Ombudsman to highlight the flaws in the DoS methodology and a blatant lack of transparency on seemingly unpredictable modes of pushing PD and claiming "high demand" when year over year visas are being wasted while families suffer.

So while members may want to hope for realistic dates based on the reported demand, it may not be even close, since I think, DoS acts purely when it needs to submit reports/congressional hearings on why visas are being wasted, which is not even a topic of discussion currently. Last years jump perhaps owes it to CIS Ombudsman annual report that reported wastage of Family visas. Only perhaps when CIS ombudsman (http://www.dhs.gov/xabout/structure/cisomb.shtm) press on the need for publishing demand data for family visas, based on members like you, could help us even try and make sense of realistic situation of visas that may help in determining a realistic guess on Visa Bulletin dates may be possible!

[visabulletin 3]

34 User(s) are reading this topic

3 members, 30 guests, 1 anonymous users

[Ma^Kali 0]

The fact that there is no or little transparency in the DoS system to print out PD (priority dates) suggests clearly an flawed process. In all, it might be a defunct excel sheet on someone's desk that at best portrays to stakeholders that it is making an best effort guesstimate while its other reports lead us to believe an entirely different story.

My conclusion of the above stated argument stems from

1. Report of Visa Office 2010 - http://www.travel.st...stics_5240.html

Per DoS stated limits, approx 88K visas (based on annual numerical limits - http://www.travel.st...ical_Limits.pdf )should be issued for F2A (My interest in F2A, since I have an application pending, PD May 2011). With the 7% numerical limit on per country basis, it should round to 6000 (approx). Look closely at visas issued in FY 2010 - India, for instance. It totals to 910 for non exempt, as opposed to the allocated 6000. Where does the rest of the visas flowed to - F4!

2. Operation of the Numerical Control Process report on DoS website - http://www.travel.st...ration%20of.pdf

It states that the way VO determines the PD movement is by analyzing

a. Previous month usage from consulates and USCIS (I-485 adjudication)

b. Remaining visas (assuming from discussion above), the aforesaid numerical limits.

But wait a minute - VO does only account for pending applications based on 130 approval (for F2A cases) pending in NVC/NBC (National Visa/Benefits Center) or perhaps only approved cases from NVC.

Based on above, I just cant but doubt the means the VO is using to estimate the priority date might be even close to what it is supposed to be based on INA regulations. The lack of transparency aggravates the concern and seemingly is evident that the visas (atleast for F2A) are diverted to other categories owing to

1. Slow processing of USCIS on I130 applications and lack of system to try for premium processing, so as to not waste the visas that are supposed to be allocated in the first place.

2. Neglect on the part of CIS Ombudsman to highlight the flaws in the DoS methodology and a blatant lack of transparency on seemingly unpredictable modes of pushing PD and claiming "high demand" when year over year visas are being wasted while families suffer.

So while members may want to hope for realistic dates based on the reported demand, it may not be even close, since I think, DoS acts purely when it needs to submit reports/congressional hearings on why visas are being wasted, which is not even a topic of discussion currently. Last years jump perhaps owes it to CIS Ombudsman annual report that reported wastage of Family visas. Only perhaps when CIS ombudsman (http://www.dhs.gov/x...ure/cisomb.shtm) press on the need for publishing demand data for family visas, based on members like you, could help us even try and make sense of realistic situation of visas that may help in determining a realistic guess on Visa Bulletin dates may be possible!

I am totally agree...!!!!

[PD is Current. 50]

8AUG08

let's hope

[mr.blu 10]

8AUG08

lets make it MAY 2009 ... I HOPE !!!

let's hope

[PD is Current. 50]

01JAN11

might as well

[nitolex06 0]

Dec 08 .is the vb coming out on friday

[jessy89 0]

mmy PD is 23 AUG08 I WANT A BIG MOVEMENT

[Patient Lover 1]

Dec 08 .is the vb coming out on friday

I hope ur prediction is right...That will be a great relief...My wife's priority date is Jan 2009...So if that happens we will get an interview date at the end of this month.God willing.

[maroon 1]

The fact that there is no or little transparency in the DoS system to print out PD (priority dates) suggests clearly an flawed process. In all, it might be a defunct excel sheet on someone's desk that at best portrays to stakeholders that it is making an best effort guesstimate while its other reports lead us to believe an entirely different story.

My conclusion of the above stated argument stems from

1. Report of Visa Office 2010 - http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/statistics/statistics_5240.html

Per DoS stated limits, approx 88K visas (based on annual numerical limits - http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf )should be issued for F2A (My interest in F2A, since I have an application pending, PD May 2011). With the 7% numerical limit on per country basis, it should round to 6000 (approx). Look closely at visas issued in FY 2010 - India, for instance. It totals to 910 for non exempt, as opposed to the allocated 6000. Where does the rest of the visas flowed to - F4!

2. Operation of the Numerical Control Process report on DoS website - http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Immigrant%20Visa%20Control%20System_operation%20of.pdf

It states that the way VO determines the PD movement is by analyzing

a. Previous month usage from consulates and USCIS (I-485 adjudication)

b. Remaining visas (assuming from discussion above), the aforesaid numerical limits.

But wait a minute - VO does only account for pending applications based on 130 approval (for F2A cases) pending in NVC/NBC (National Visa/Benefits Center) or perhaps only approved cases from NVC.

Based on above, I just cant but doubt the means the VO is using to estimate the priority date might be even close to what it is supposed to be based on INA regulations. The lack of transparency aggravates the concern and seemingly is evident that the visas (atleast for F2A) are diverted to other categories owing to

1. Slow processing of USCIS on I130 applications and lack of system to try for premium processing, so as to not waste the visas that are supposed to be allocated in the first place.

2. Neglect on the part of CIS Ombudsman to highlight the flaws in the DoS methodology and a blatant lack of transparency on seemingly unpredictable modes of pushing PD and claiming "high demand" when year over year visas are being wasted while families suffer.

So while members may want to hope for realistic dates based on the reported demand, it may not be even close, since I think, DoS acts purely when it needs to submit reports/congressional hearings on why visas are being wasted, which is not even a topic of discussion currently. Last years jump perhaps owes it to CIS Ombudsman annual report that reported wastage of Family visas. Only perhaps when CIS ombudsman (http://www.dhs.gov/xabout/structure/cisomb.shtm) press on the need for publishing demand data for family visas, based on members like you, could help us even try and make sense of realistic situation of visas that may help in determining a realistic guess on Visa Bulletin dates may be possible!

well said Kumbahara, I only have a tiny problem with what you said about 6,000 visas. That is the maximum visas can be allotted to a single country, given the fact that there are applicants from over 180 countries, it is not fair enough to expect a single country like mexico captures all the allotted cap.

Here comes the real question, how can we make the Visa Center (VC) accountable for their existing regulations, especially in terms of using all 88,000 visa numbers and not wasting even a visa number for any coming fiscal year?

One way which I can think of doing this is using media (particularly writing an article) about the existing problem and make them to be accountable. I am sure people have written about this but it is better to put more pressure on them.

Edited July 6, 2011 by maroon

[Ali05 0]

Just my assumption for AUG VB-2011

WORLDWIDE CHARGABILITY--July 22, 2008

MEXICO, INDIA, PHILI, and CHINA will stay same- MAR 22, 2008

____________________________

Mexico will not stay the same. I read about someone from May 2008 getting interview for August.

[Export of Dhaka 8]

Armani81, Wait a minute: re ur brother's case is interesting because in the CSPA law his age is frozen when his priority date becomes current and then subtract the period of approval of the I-130. I think his pD became current last year. This is where you need a lawyer to advice you.

Good point - but just freezing the age really doesn't mean anything - the beneficiary has to apply for IV (file DS-230) within one year of PD becoming current. Now, in retrogression situation, he would be all set if he had applied within one year of his PD becoming current the first time - which he didn't - so it really doesn't matter that his PD became current once before.