Caution: VJ Processing estimates are too pessimistic

[Teachers 12]

I've seen the VJ of my estimated processing date extend out about a month recently. I believe what VJ does is take recent average wait data, and apply it to all those waiting. I don't think this is very accurate because of the big backlog of people who have been waiting 150+ days. Once this backlog is worked off (this month), then the average should drop sharply.

For the last 6-7 weeks, CSC has been processing about 25 cases/week. If they keep up at this rate, then approvals will look more like this:

September approvals:

Most/all March, April and May applications (96 as of 8/31), and a few of the 47 remaining June ones.

October approvals:

The bulk of June applications (47) and most of July (68).

November approvals:

The remaining few of July (68), most/all of August (58); and a good start on September.

Tom

[michellek1976 0]

You may be right but I don't believe the VJ calculation can factor in clearing backlogs.

My original NOA1 stated 90-120 days with CSC. It has been nearly 180 (obviously due to IMBRA), but they are now stating 6 months on their website.

Your 80 days prediction may be a little optimistic, but I hope time proves me wrong.

[cute_baby 0]

Oh! Thank you, thank you, thank you TomYu!!!!

You make my day!

I have more power right now for waiting my approval

[mybackpages 0]

I've seen the VJ of my estimated processing date extend out about a month recently. I believe what VJ does is take recent average wait data, and apply it to all those waiting. Tom

You may be right, but my VJ timeline is shortening. I mailed the petion 2 weeks ago to TSC and the time estimated at that time an approval date of Dec 23. Now it estimates approval by Dec 11.

When I want to view timelines similar to mine, it seems to connect me to only TSC petitioners with Morocco as the consulate. The consulate shouldn't make a difference at the USCIS level should it? And since all TSC and NSC K-1 petitions are forwarded to California, shouldn't CSC times impact my VJ estimation?

I am curious how VJ calculates the timeline. Maybe Capt Ewok will come to the rescue?

Meanwhile today is day 11 of USCIS having possession of the petition (15 days since mailing) and I am still waiting for the check to be cashed. Based on VJ estimations the average wait for NOA1 is approx. 14 days...so hoping any day now --maybe the end of next week?????

[aussiewench 9]

VJ timelines are ONLY estimates and are ONLY based on the information that members put in. Some members dont update and some members dont put any information in. It can only calculate on the information it has. When I was going through the process mine was adjudicated a lot earlier then the estimate. Members shouldnt put too much weight on the VJ timeline estimate just as they shouldnt put too much wait on the USCIS processing dates. Your best guide is other members timelines that are through the same service center and consulate......but even then it is only an estimate.

[Teachers 12]

I've seen the VJ of my estimated processing date extend out about a month recently. I believe what VJ does is take recent average wait data, and apply it to all those waiting. Tom

You may be right, but my VJ timeline is shortening. I mailed the petion 2 weeks ago to TSC and the time estimated at that time an approval date of Dec 23. Now it estimates approval by Dec 11.

When I want to view timelines similar to mine, it seems to connect me to only TSC petitioners with Morocco as the consulate. The consulate shouldn't make a difference at the USCIS level should it? And since all TSC and NSC K-1 petitions are forwarded to California, shouldn't CSC times impact my VJ estimation?

I am curious how VJ calculates the timeline. Maybe Capt Ewok will come to the rescue?

Meanwhile today is day 11 of USCIS having possession of the petition (15 days since mailing) and I am still waiting for the check to be cashed. Based on VJ estimations the average wait for NOA1 is approx. 14 days...so hoping any day now --maybe the end of next week?????

I sent my application in July 6 and got an NOA1 date of July 31. My VJ estimate is Dec. 1. I'm not sure why there is so big a difference in estimated processing time. Perhaps the VJ estimates are still based on NSC vx. TSC vx. CSC. My expectation is that all three will converge as the backlog is worked off.

Tom

You may be right but I don't believe the VJ calculation can factor in clearing backlogs.

My original NOA1 stated 90-120 days with CSC. It has been nearly 180 (obviously due to IMBRA), but they are now stating 6 months on their website.

Your 80 days prediction may be a little optimistic, but I hope time proves me wrong.

Given what has happen to you, I would have my doubts too. Let me explain how I got my 80 day number. I looked at the current (last 6-7) weeks of approval data - about 25/week. I then applied it to the number of applications waiting in line. I then assumed (BIG assumptions) that the processing rate would stay stable, and that applications would be processed in order. In Sept., Oct. and Nov. 25 x 13 = 325.

Waiting in line (at 8/31) were 274 applicatons (March-August). If they're working on September applications by the second half of Nov., then the wait time would be under 90 days.

Also, I agree with Aussiewench that processing is individual, with wide variability, so that no estimate, including mine, should be given too much weight.

Tom

[mybackpages 0]

I sent my application in July 6 and got an NOA1 date of July 31. My VJ estimate is Dec. 1. I'm not sure why there is so big a difference in estimated processing time. Perhaps the VJ estimates are still based on NSC vx. TSC vx. CSC. My expectation is that all three will converge as the backlog is worked off.

Could it have to do with the old vs new IMBRA form? I believe the new form came out shortly after you sent yours in? The estimation may include time for the RFE? I doubt the VJ timeline is that sophisticated to allow for such variables. Maybe.

[Teachers 12]

I sent my application in July 6 and got an NOA1 date of July 31. My VJ estimate is Dec. 1. I'm not sure why there is so big a difference in estimated processing time. Perhaps the VJ estimates are still based on NSC vx. TSC vx. CSC. My expectation is that all three will converge as the backlog is worked off.

Could it have to do with the old vs new IMBRA form? I believe the new form came out shortly after you sent yours in? The estimation may include time for the RFE? I doubt the VJ timeline is that sophisticated to allow for such variables. Maybe.

I'm pretty sure I used the current form. It's the same one that comes up when I go on the USCIS site to look at forms today.

VJ does track each service center separately. If you go to their statistics area, you will see a graph of average processing times for each of the 4 service centers.

Tom

[Captain Ewok 1,900]

Agreed. The timelines are based on recent avg processing times for people and 'flukes' such as the IMBRA backlog scew things until the backlog is cleared. As you said in the next month things will return to more normal. The more ddata we have -- the more people who enter information -- the better the timeline estimation. The timelines can not predict future process performance -- they can only estimate based on current processing performance.

[EBONY_SEAN 1]

WELL JUST BY READING UR POST IT GIVES ME HOPE THAT MINE IS NOT FAR FROM BEING PROCESSES .....THANKS

I've seen the VJ of my estimated processing date extend out about a month recently. I believe what VJ does is take recent average wait data, and apply it to all those waiting. I don't think this is very accurate because of the big backlog of people who have been waiting 150+ days. Once this backlog is worked off (this month), then the average should drop sharply.

For the last 6-7 weeks, CSC has been processing about 25 cases/week. If they keep up at this rate, then approvals will look more like this:

September approvals:

Most/all March, April and May applications (96 as of 8/31), and a few of the 47 remaining June ones.

October approvals:

The bulk of June applications (47) and most of July (68).

November approvals:

The remaining few of July (68), most/all of August (58); and a good start on September.

Tom

[garya505 2]

I've noticed the Estimated Date slides out a day each day that passes!