F1 case complete and waiting for visa # availability

[DeW_DrOpS 21]

Well all the predictions and assumptions may be correct but if this is the case how can F1 cut-off dates for F1 start increasing from 1 month to 7 weeks....

DOS predicted it would move 4-6 weeks for next few months but it moved more....On the contrary they predicted F2A would move 2-2.5 months but it moved just 6 weeks...F1 has been faster than F2A since last few months...

I just think lets be optimistic that our PD move 2 months each month so that we can see Feb 2006 back irrespective of how many applicants there may be pending in last 5 months of year 2005....

It is their job how to adjust cut off dates and no one can predict how they would move PD in cumin months so just wait and watch the coming VB and we can see some good movement..

And in new fiscal PD would definitely move faster coz they have abundant visa numbers so there is no poing it would move one month or 5 weeks...

Hopw for the best and we can see Jan or Feb 2006 in the New Fiscal...

[mohamed el bakr 15]

And the board has gone real quite.

I know everyone is hoping for minimum 2 months jump for every monthly VB but guys and gals, how sure are we that it will jump up like that?

Here are few things to consider:

1) Visas available from now till end of September

2) Many first half of 2005 applicants who managed to get the paperwork sorted and get interviews by latestest Nov/Dec, got their visas but how many from August-December 2005 applicants managed to get their visas? My guess, less than 0.05%.

So, majority of 2005 applicants are still waiting.

3)Spillover from F2 Category, basically, petitioners that had GC and became citizens and had applied much sooner than us.

It means people with GC back in mid 2007 can now become citizen, and their application for their kids will automatically switch over to F1. (just look at the case number of some folks scheduled for interviews, some goe back to 2003 etc)

4) Look at the number of applicants each year, increasing, and according to Nov 2011 report, people waiting for visas to become available for F1 is "295,168" and increasing (just look at the USCIS chart. (and over 320'000 as of Feb 2012)

this is 6.5% of total family based applicants (F1-F4) = 4,501,066.

5) just around 23400 visas per year, and atleast few tousands going to mexico, philippines, ....

Besides that, some of the applicants might got/get their GC through work or other means before hand,.... does anyone have any useful information (or logic )about why VB could/should move forward more than 1 month at a time????????

Ican't agree with this opinion because if we follow your method in analysis when youn see that many of the frist half of 2005 applicant get there visa therefore they moved fast and it will slow for the second half i think this is not accurate nor logical for many reasons:

frist nvc process 2005 applicant before retrogession very fast and only for a few months(i,e 2005 pass in only 3 months) and if we say that the monthly allotment is 2000 visa per month we can conclude that only few 2005 applicant get visas.

second if we assume that many of 2005 applicant get visa so they will slow down in the second half why they completely stopped for whole eight months and we know that in this period they process 2004 and earlier applicant whose got more visas and even take a longer time.

third you can't deal by logic with nvc because no one know the actual demand and the definite number of documentairly qualified and even in sometimes nvc prediction is not accurate.

fourth we know that applicant with late 2007 pd get there coa and aos can they wait another two years to get interview letters i don't think so.

[PatientMan 23]

Ican't agree with this opinion because if we follow your method in analysis when youn see that many of the frist half of 2005 applicant get there visa therefore they moved fast and it will slow for the second half i think this is not accurate nor logical for many reasons:

frist nvc process 2005 applicant before retrogession very fast and only for a few months(i,e 2005 pass in only 3 months) and if we say that the monthly allotment is 2000 visa per month we can conclude that only few 2005 applicant get visas.

second if we assume that many of 2005 applicant get visa so they will slow down in the second half why they completely stopped for whole eight months and we know that in this period they process 2004 and earlier applicant whose got more visas and even take a longer time.

third you can't deal by logic with nvc because no one know the actual demand and the definite number of documentairly qualified and even in sometimes nvc prediction is not accurate.

fourth we know that applicant with late 2007 pd get there coa and aos can they wait another two years to get interview letters i don't think so.

Dear Friend,

Uncle Sam(NVC) has a logic in what it does, for its own benefit at least, if you dont know that already, you will learn that due time.

Bringing PD dates forward and then back, provided NVC with needed cash, ahead of schedule.

just a simple example, assume just 1 million applicantions time something like $500 = half a billion $$$$$

money that is not in your pocket anymore but Uncle Sam o matter you get approved/rejected, decide not to persue the GC, etc

anyway, back to main subject. NVC asks for application fees and all the forms around 9 months from applicants PD.

So people with Q1 2005 PD would have received a letter from NVC around Feb 2010.

folks with PD around june/july around May/June 2010.

and so it quickly continued into 2006 PDs ..

As quick as one might be, it would take around 2 months(at least) to get all the paperwork in and case approved.

Assuming someone with june/july 2005 PD, would take them to August 2005, and another 1-2 months to get interview. This takes you to october or so.

Point is, if people that had their case approved by nvc, unless they managed to get their interview latest in December 2010 and given their visa, they would still wait with you and I till PD moves forward again.

Just visit the Vietnamese BB and see who got Visa and when.

Another thing, 2003 took only 4 VBs, and 2005 2 VB's in the first swoop.

you think there were no applicants then? then where do you think 300'000+ applicants come from? all from 2006 and 2007? I dont think so.

I agree with you, the so called eligible might be less, but in my view only if you take away some from Mexican and philipines pool, since their wait time goes back 15-19 years, and one would assume some actually have married, etc. or there might be some dublicate cases, like both parents applying....

as for number of I130 applicants, go back to some of my earlier postings about how many applications were filled per month in 2005 and 2006.

Last thing, COA and AOS mean nothing, and you have to wait till PD moves forward to your date. as far as NVC is concerned, you and I have to wait.

I have waited more than 1,5 years to date after having everything approved and still have months if not 1 year or so to go before getting the GC. So if you have PD 2007, then so will you.

I suggest you pay attention to page 4 in this document.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/WaitingListItem.pdf

Again, I hope I am wrong and pray that things move very fast every month in 2012 and 2013,.....

[loudoff 25]

-bump-

what is your point here? It was posting from last year.

Edited May 16, 2012 by loudoff

[f1junkie 54]

Look here man USA's economy make up for about 50% of the world's economy. The money the nvc collects is chicken feed. They have changed the process and I think that it is better now but because we are some of the first to experience it it is a frustrating for us.

My crystal ball shows me 2006 peeping around the corner and we will all be smiling soon.

Edited May 16, 2012 by f1junkie

[cast2006 5]

My crystal ball shows me 2006 peeping around the corner and we will all be smiling soon.

AGREE

[mohamed el bakr 15]

DEAR FRIEND PATIENTMAN

just a simple example, assume just 1 million applicantions time something like $500 = half a billion $$$$$

money that is not in your pocket anymore but Uncle Sam o matter you get approved/rejected, decide not to persue the GC, etc[/b

Another thing, 2003 took only 4 VBs, and 2005 2 VB's in the first swoop.

you think there were no applicants then? then where do you think 300'000+ applicants come from? all from 2006 and 2007? I dont think so.

if we talk about money we can assume that dos process 226000 case per year if we suppose that they send coa and aof to the double of this number we can get 452000 applicant every one pay 404 $ we can get nearly $ 183 million if you know that in 2010 fiscal year the dos budget is $ 27.4 billion this number they collect from nvc represent only 0.66 percent of there budget (below 1%) i think this is not money.

second you ask where where 300000 applicant come from they come from 2004 and earlier which absolutely get more visas before retrogession than 2005 and eraly 2006 apllicant.

Edited May 16, 2012 by mohamed el bakr

[NevermindVz 51]

or there might be some dublicate cases, like both parents applying....

Interesting. I think this is rather common, as it is often suggested that both parents apply if possible, in case something happens to one of them, so the petition can continue.

Also, since the waiting time has been so long, my guess is that a good portion of the applicants could have married and thus moved form F1 to F3. However, many applicants could have divorced as well and moved from F3 to F1 lol.

My crystal ball shows me 2006 peeping around the corner and we will all be smiling soon.

I also think we will (hopefully) see 2006 soon. But I think it will also slow down a bit once it reaches Feb 2006 or mid 2006. I'm Sept 2006, so that worries me sometimes. Hopefully it will keep moving fast!

[f1junkie 54]

Interesting. I think this is rather common, as it is often suggested that both parents apply if possible, in case something happens to one of them, so the petition can continue.

Also, since the waiting time has been so long, my guess is that a good portion of the applicants could have married and thus moved form F1 to F3. However, many applicants could have divorced as well and moved from F3 to F1 lol.

I also think we will (hopefully) see 2006 soon. But I think it will also slow down a bit once it reaches Feb 2006 or mid 2006. I'm Sept 2006, so that worries me sometimes. Hopefully it will keep moving fast!

I don't think you need to worry about it slowing down because they said that they were going to be conservative in projections after retro and if the current movements are considered conservative then we have nothing to worry about. They will clear 06 in 7 months after reaching 2006 at the end of sept 2012.

[NevermindVz 51]

I don't think you need to worry about it slowing down because they said that they were going to be conservative in projections after retro and if the current movements are considered conservative then we have nothing to worry about. They will clear 06 in 7 months after reaching 2006 at the end of sept 2012.

You mean they could clear 2006 by April 2013? If it is like you say, I would be sooo happy

ETA: How do you come up with 7 months to clear 2006? That sounds rather fast, doesn't it?

Edited May 16, 2012 by NevermindVz

[mohamed el bakr 15]

I don't think you need to worry about it slowing down because they said that they were going to be conservative in projections after retro and if the current movements are considered conservative then we have nothing to worry about. They will clear 06 in 7 months after reaching 2006 at the end of sept 2012.

where did you read this? please provide me with your source.

it will be a very good news if they do this

[PatientMan 23]

DEAR FRIEND PATIENTMAN

just a simple example, assume just 1 million applicantions time something like $500 = half a billion $$$$$

money that is not in your pocket anymore but Uncle Sam o matter you get approved/rejected, decide not to persue the GC, etc[/b

Another thing, 2003 took only 4 VBs, and 2005 2 VB's in the first swoop.

you think there were no applicants then? then where do you think 300'000+ applicants come from? all from 2006 and 2007? I dont think so.

if we talk about money we can assume that dos process 226000 case per year if we suppose that they send coa and aof to the double of this number we can get 452000 applicant every one pay 404 $ we can get nearly $ 183 million if you know that in 2010 fiscal year the dos budget is $ 27.4 billion this number they collect from nvc represent only 0.66 percent of there budget (below 1%) i think this is not money.

second you ask where where 300000 applicant come from they come from 2004 and earlier which absolutely get more visas before retrogession than 2005 and eraly 2006 apllicant.

Even if we go by your calculations, thats still alot of money for a department.

When you speak of DOS budget, I hope you are not referring to the whole Department of State.

Thats like comparing apples to cows.

I suggest you also provide link to your source as well, so there is no confusion.

I will provide you with some info here, if you have spare time, you can enjoy it.

pay attention to this on page 33.

http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/183755.pdf

"Visa Processing: $49,043,000

The Visa Office (VO) is the Departments central authority on the visa function and is the Departments

link to other entities, governmental and non-governmental, involved or interested in visa and immigration matters. Requested funding will support on-going operations at the National Visa Center (NVC), the Kentucky Consular Center (KCC) and the visa office headquarters operations in Washington, DC."

If you want to look into USCIS, then enjoy this doc, check from page 119 onwards.

http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/budget_bib_fy2011.pdf

Regarding the second item and over 300'000 applications,

what are you saying exactly?

What do you mean by

a) "they come from 2004 and earlier" ?

and

b) "which absolutely get more visas before retrogession"

Are you suggesting that these 300'000 visa pending applications have suddenly, have now gone away with visas, now that we reached mid 2005? if so, i dont know how this big number got absorbed into 23400 annual limit.

I dont think neither a or b statements are correct nor mutually exclusive

Lets hope conservative estimates by NVC OM mean 6+ weeks per VB.

Edited May 16, 2012 by PatientMan

[mohamed el bakr 15]

Even if we go by your calculations, thats still alot of money for a department.

When you speak of DOS budget, I hope you are not referring to the whole Department of State.

Thats like comparing apples to cows.

I suggest you also provide link to your source as well, so there is no confusion.

I will provide you with some info here, if you have spare time, you can enjoy it.

pay attention to this on page 33.

http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/183755.pdf

"Visa Processing: $49,043,000

The Visa Office (VO) is the Departments central authority on the visa function and is the Departments

link to other entities, governmental and non-governmental, involved or interested in visa and immigration matters. Requested funding will support on-going operations at the National Visa Center (NVC), the Kentucky Consular Center (KCC) and the visa office headquarters operations in Washington, DC."

If you want to look into USCIS, then enjoy this doc, check from page 119 onwards.

http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/budget_bib_fy2011.pdf

Regarding the second item and over 300'000 applications,

what are you saying exactly?

What do you mean by

a) "they come from 2004 and earlier" ?

and

b) "which absolutely get more visas before retrogession"

Are you suggesting that these 300'000 visa pending applications have suddenly, have now gone away with visas, now that we reached mid 2005? if so, i dont know how this big number got absorbed into 23400 annual limit.

I dont think neither a or b statements are correct nor mutually exclusive

Lets hope conservative estimates by NVC OM mean 6+ weeks per VB.

you not me say 300000 applicant look back to your post and see what you write and 2004 and earlier mean that they give visa numbers to applicant with pd 2004 and before i think this is very simple to understand

about the budget go to DOS website you will find it so esay

also about cows and apple i think all revenue and expenditure will be taken in consider to make the final budget and i mean that money came from nvc will not be huge source of money as you think and if the whole story is about money they can easily increase the fees by 2-3-4 fold and iam sure that at least 90% of applicant will pay without any opposition.

Edited May 16, 2012 by mohamed el bakr

[PatientMan 23]

you not me say 300000 applicant look back to your post and see what you write and 2004 and earlier mean that they give visa numbers to applicant with pd 2004 and before i think this is very simple to understand

about the budget go to DOS website you will find it so esay

also about cows and apple i think all revenue and expenditure will be taken in consider to make the final budget and i mean that money came from nvc will not be huge source of money as you think and if the whole story is about money they can easily increase the fees by 2-3-4 fold and iam sure that at least 90% of applicant will pay without any opposition.

Read this, before you jump up and down, here is were I got the 300'000, ok?!?!?!?

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/WaitingListItem.pdf

I also referred you to USCIS website(dashboard).

It was published as of 1 Nov 2011 using data up to that time.

Where was PD during this time? June/July 2004.

All I have said, is that second half of 2005 most likely have lots of applicants waiting, hence assuming a slow down.

2004 discussion was your own conclusion and disagreement with me

No more comments.

[mohamed el bakr 15]

Read this, before you jump up and down, here is were I got the 300'000, ok?!?!?!?

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/WaitingListItem.pdf

I also referred you to USCIS website(dashboard).

It was published as of 1 Nov 2011 using data up to that time.

Where was PD during this time? June/July 2004.

All I have said, is that second half of 2005 most likely have lots of applicants waiting, hence assuming a slow down.

2004 discussion was your own conclusion and disagreement with me

No more comments.

DEAR friend i highly aprreciate the discussion with you and i think you have a good view but don't feel that i want to fight because that is definitely wrong.

finally i hope best wishes for you and all other friends