VISA BULLETIN COMMUNITY

[PD is Current. 50]

3606 now

[visabulletin 3]

Oh thats great. Thanks. But when it will be forwarded to congressmen or concerned authorities. Is it possible to get any clue about number of lpr couples here.

[visabulletin 3]

Does comprehensive immigration reform counts for lpr ?

Please check this new video. Thanks

IMMIGRATION REFORM

Edited May 15, 2011 by visabulletin

[PD is Current. 50]

Does comprehensive immigration reform counts for lpr ?

Please check this new video. Thanks

IMMIGRATION REFORM

i believe so.

[PD is Current. 50]

For those who live in CA,

please write your F2A story to CBS 5,

http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/station/cbs-5/

I'm hoping when many of us write to them they might do a news coverage on the existing immigration laws for LPR's F2A process. and maybe national news channel may pick it up and

more people would know about it...

it's so unfair to our families, i can't take it anymore,

let's do SOMETHING!

Edited May 16, 2011 by PD is Current.

[visabulletin 3]

Some observations.

FY 2006/ 2011 CUT OFF DATES

FY 2006

We saw the last retrogression on July 2006. F2A moved from 22 April 2001 to 1 Sep 1999. There was no dramatic forward movement before retrogression as seen in year 2010. When the next FY started huge number of new visas were available in the first quarter and the dates came back to normal in OCT 2006 (First month of FY 2007). Rate of movement before retrogression was 1 month.

Take a look at June 2006 cut off dates (22 April 2001) and an year later June 2007 cut off dates (22 April 2002). Net movement in 12 month was approximately 12 month. @ 1month per every month. No matter how they accelerated or deccelerated the bulletin in whole year, at the end of the year bulletin moved 12 months.

FY 2010.

Similarly consider FY 2010, prior to retrogression rate of movement was 2 months/every month.

F2A cut off dates have seen a huge movement from 01 Aug 2006 to 01 Aug 2010. Assuming that there was no retrogression the dates has to move forward 2 months starting from April 2010 to current date.(15 months).

Fifteen months multiplied by 2 comes to 30 months. Now move the bulletin forward 30 months starting from June 06. If there was no retrogression the dates has to be in Dec 2008 or beyond. I strongly believe retrogressive dates are not correct. But why there was no big movement in last couple of months, not bcoz visas are not available, its still recovering slowly from retrogressive dates. At this time we cant rely on their acceleration or decceleration as seen in previous bulletins.

I'm pretty sure by OCT 2011 FY 2011 closes completely and huge number of visa will be available which has no direct relation to FY 2011 and the retrogression. Just wait for the big day when OCT 2011 bullein will be released, cut off dates will be somewhere in middle of 2009.

Currently i believe we are in Dec 2008 or beyond.

3 MONTHS 20 DAYS TO GO FOR OCT 2011 VB.

Edited May 17, 2011 by visabulletin

[visabulletin 3]

Please correct it to FY 2011 instead of 2010. Thanks.

[Miami_Boy 9]

Please correct it to FY 2011 instead of 2010. Thanks.

If you're true, I will be first known .. Guess what People getting interview date before VB published current date!

[visabulletin 3]

Hi Miami boy. Haven't seen you for ages. Hope everything comes back to pre retrogression dates soon.

[PD is Current. 50]

visabulletin, I've also analyzed the historic cut-off date data (91 to now).

The big retrogression that happen in 8/2001 and 6/2006 recovered within 2 months and 6 months respectively to the date before the retrogression. We're also seeing similar trend here, we're recovering back to the cut-off date before regression, i.e. 4/2010 where the wait time was 3.78yrs. Current wait time is 3.72 years.

The key difference is that the last two retrogression did not happen prior to a big forward movement like in 5/2010.

This is my theory :

2009 was a bad year for everyone, financial crisis, massive layoff, F2A applicant rates dropped significantly, USCIS collect a lot less fees, they had to create cash flow to save their jobs also, therefore they open up the gate for F2A to create massive applications (= $$$$$$$$), their jobs are saved once money's collected and now plenty to do, they close the gate and started chilling , relaxing again on our cases.

They created rapid movement because F2A visa usage was low and I think it's all because of the bad year in 2009.

The next few cut-off dates will indicate whether there's a real reduction in wait time for us or it was just a once in a lifetime thing...

Edited May 17, 2011 by PD is Current.

[visabulletin 3]

I agree with you PD, but if they want to keep the wait time as a constant(3.72 years) they have to make it unavailable to all the upcoming bulletins or just one month movement. Thats a rare possibility when FY 2012 is about to start and current trends indicates its on the way to 2008 in just 4 months. Very good sign so far in a retrogressive year.

Please check the other categories as well, dates didnt moved at all.

I still cant accept the fact that in last 15 months net movement was just 14 months. Its horrible.

Edited May 17, 2011 by visabulletin

[visabulletin 3]

Anybody know the differences in cause for retrogression in 2001/2006/2010.

IMO last retrogression was maily due to forward movement so that they can utilise all the available visa in that FY. The accelerated phase which we saw in 2010 wont happen again soon bcoz its the time period when new approved cases were released to NVC for processing coupled with large number of new I130 petition resulted in retrogression. I read somewhere in state website that retrogression can occur with variety of factors and everytime it presents with a new picture and follows a unique way to recover.

[visabulletin 3]

Doomsday is near any hope for F2A category.

Doomsday and F2A.

[visabulletin 3]

Great News!!

Its a 8 month movement probably. One of my friend with PD april 2008(India) got scheduled in july 2011. we gonna rock next month. hehehe...

Guys last week i told you we are on Dec 2008. Retrogressive cut off dates are absolutely wrong. We will get a clear picture in upcoming bulletin and when new FY starts.

Check this out.

VB stastics chart and PD estimator.

[jhp 10]

Great News!!

Its a 8 month movement probably. One of my friend with PD april 2008(India) got scheduled in july 2011. we gonna rock next month. hehehe...

Guys last week i told you we are on Dec 2008. Retrogressive cut off dates are absolutely wrong. We will get a clear picture in upcoming bulletin and when new FY starts.

Check this out.

VB stastics chart and PD estimator.

GOOD GUESS BUT FRIEND IT DEPENDS ON WHEN THE CASE HAS BEEN COMPLETED....I KNOW FEW PEOPLE IN INDIA WHOSE PRIRITY DATE IS IN JULY 2007 AND DEC 2007 AND YET NOT RECEIVED INTERVIEW LETTERS...SO THERE ARE CHANCES THAT PD WILL BE DEC 2007....

Edited May 30, 2011 by jhp