April 2011 filers

[mr and mrs 187]

obviously, you werent lying when you said you were a lawyer!

[Exasperated 5]

I get where you're coming from, and I'm certainly not trying to imply you're a wet blanket. In fact, I appreciate all the details you're providing. It's just my 2 cents on processing at VSC is as follows:

Cent 1: The OBJECTIVE evidence is what we can observe here. That processing times in the various monthly threads for the last year or so have reasonably tracked the stated goal of 6 months, give or take. Also, and not to be a geek, you'll find that most professional pollers feel comfortable with sample sets of about 30 to represent an entire universe in the hundreds as long as the selection is perfectly random (which VJ mostly is). In this election cycle, scientific polls at Gallup that represent the political sentiment of MILLIONS of Americans are usually based on no more than a thousand phone calls, but you get the point. I'm just saying that I'm not buying what VSC is saying without getting further information... which brings me to my second point.

Cent 2: The SUBJECTIVE statement originates from VSC and from VSC alone. Even though you heard it from reputable politicians, there is no way to verify it. Indeed, if I were VSC and getting pressure from political bigwigs, a very effective, low-risk strategy would be to do damage control: claim the complainant is faring better than most people, present a scenario that is worse than reality so as to be able to under promise and over deliver, etc. Also, I'm so less inclined to believe VSC when they've been inconsistent in processing service requests, quoting dates that are currently being processed, given us the run-around from 6 months to 24th February then back to 6 months... etc. I'm going to go by what the objective, no-agenda evidence tells me! :-)

Fair enough. Though it's obvious, even from our supposedly representative forum, that they aren't delivering on 6 months (if you check the April stats).I know you mention that there has been a slowdown, but that also makes it less useful to rely on old information which stems from before this "slowdown" occurred. In addition, the principles behind "scientific polls" are in no way infallible, and are frequently subjected to scientific criticism. I always took the purpose of this forum to be sharing experiences and providing eachother with support and information about the process. As for using the sample of filers who post here each month as a representation of the general tendencies of the USCIS decision-making process, I think one can only do so with a BIG pinch of salt - I do not believe that such a small sample can be truly representative, in the same way that I do not generally accept Gallup polls as being generally accurate (which is certainly not something I'm alone in). That being said, I never heard of sample sets as small as 30 being used in any serious poll - the typical sample set used by Gallup is between 1000 and 1500 - though admittedly, we're dealing with the opinions of an entire country in such cases, so the sample size is still proportionally small, though not quite as exaggeratedly small as you portray. If we're going to talk about things like the Gallup presidential poll, I believe there is a lot more to it than meets the eye (e.g. in terms of political interest and dishonesty - and it certainly would not be the first time Gallup was accused of fraudulent/deceptive polls).

Basically, as I put very little stock in the forum population being representative, I've chosen to put more stock in what the director for the VSC told a congressman inquiring about my case. You don't have to agree with this view, and all we can do is agree to disagree. And this is not really aimed at anyone in particular, but I also know that psychologically, it feels better to believe that all these people who have been waiting for a long time (such as me, since February 4th) have some dark past or marriage which is falling apart or whatnot, and that surely THAT'S why they are waiting so long - and an "obviously it wouldn't happen to ME, since I have such a spotless background, no issues in my past etc. I'm sure those cases are just weird...." kind of reasoning.

As far as I know, my case should be very straightforward. That, coupled with the fact that I was told that there was such a huge delay in Vermont cases made me more prone to believe that the slowdown is because of the VSC being overloaded with cases, and that it's a general thing. I think from a psychological perspective, I prefer to believe that, since it would make me feel more relaxed about something being "wrong" with my case (though I have absolutely no idea what that would be - but with the USCIS one never knows). So this could possibly skew my thinking in the other direction. Whereas those who have been waiting for less time, and want to believe that they will be approved very soon, have a natural reaction to disbelieve the "VSC is extra slow" line, and instead favor the "your case is just odd and unusual" line. Just a theory.

In any case, just general rambling really. I'm happy you appreciate all the details I provide, though I have no earthly idea why (since you seem to put little stock in them - maybe just amusement value? ) If one is of the view that VSC has a special agenda when they answer requests for information (even to politicians inquiring about individual cases), information about the answers to such requests would seem pretty useless for any practical reason.

Wishing you all a great thanksgiving and speedy approvals!

[fairandfoul 7]

I do not believe that such a small sample can be truly representative, in the same way that I do not generally accept Gallup polls as being generally accurate (which is certainly not something I'm alone in). That being said, I never heard of sample sets as small as 30 being used in any serious poll - the typical sample set used by Gallup is between 1000 and 1500 - though admittedly, we're dealing with the opinions of an entire country in such cases, so the sample size is still proportionally small, though not quite as exaggeratedly small as you portray. If we're going to talk about things like the Gallup presidential poll, I believe there is a lot more to it than meets the eye (e.g. in terms of political interest and dishonesty - and it certainly would not be the first time Gallup was accused of fraudulent/deceptive polls).

Basically, as I put very little stock in the forum population being representative, I've chosen to put more stock in what the director for the VSC told a congressman inquiring about my case. You don't have to agree with this view, and all we can do is agree to disagree. And this is not really aimed at anyone in particular, but I also know that psychologically, it feels better to believe that all these people who have been waiting for a long time (such as me, since February 4th) have some dark past or marriage which is falling apart or whatnot, and that surely THAT'S why they are waiting so long - and an "obviously it wouldn't happen to ME, since I have such a spotless background, no issues in my past etc. I'm sure those cases are just weird...." kind of reasoning.

In any case, just general rambling really. I'm happy you appreciate all the details I provide, though I have no earthly idea why (since you seem to put little stock in them - maybe just amusement value? ) If one is of the view that VSC has a special agenda when they answer requests for information (even to politicians inquiring about individual cases), information about the answers to such requests would seem pretty useless for any practical reason.

Wishing you all a great thanksgiving and speedy approvals!

I appreciate all the details you provide here because they are often humorous, provide helpful advice, cheer on those who like you have been waiting for so long (which is a damn shame!), and because they highlight the exceptions to the normal processing time which is an equally important angle to share on VJ since people will have different experiences and hearing about as many as possible is, indeed, quite valuable! :-)

I also know that your rebuttals are not personal digs, just you stating what you believe and I stating what I believe.

As for polls, sample sizes, and objectivity, I am religiously convinced that VJ is an accurate representation of what goes on in the real world. It is backed by irrefutable science and is so reliable that a Ph.D student of statistics could make forecasts on I-751 processing times at VSC based solely on data collected from these forums and be able to make a convincing argument for his methodology. Scientifically speaking, the Central Limit Theorem for normal distributions (I would expect VJ experiences in the general population to be normally distributed) states that sample sizes of about 30 or greater represent the experiences in the general population (even for significantly large populations!). The theorem further holds that this will be true about 95% of the time as long as the sample is perfectly random. Oddly enough, the size of most threads here is usually just over 30, and the selection to post has a fair degree of randomness.

This link contains a basic discussion on the concept, but textbooks dedicated to the subject will provide scintillating insight on the science of population approximations: http://www.statisticalforecasting.com/central-limit-theorem.php

However, I apologise and perhaps we can get back on topic for those who have found this to be nothing more than an annoying, geeky distraction! :-)

[potter1 1]

Hello all, I am grateful for the knowlege-base in VJ. Please add me to the April list. Date of I-751: 04/09/11, NOA1 Date: 04/11/11, Biometrics: 06/21/11

[Yurika & Jim 77]

Hello all, I am grateful for the knowlege-base in VJ. Please add me to the April list. Date of I-751: 04/09/11, NOA1 Date: 04/11/11, Biometrics: 06/21/11

??? Your name is already on the list...

[potter1 1]

Thank you. I'll wear my tri-focals next time.

[mr and mrs 187]

Thank you. I'll wear my tri-focals next time.

hee hee!

did anyone see that a VJer with an april NOA1 date was approved on the 21st? think they are not on this list as their profile shows 0 posts.

[k84 11]

It is sad that VSC is still so far behind. I was hoping to see more approvals by now. Hopefully they will decide to give you all a great Christmas surprise.... a green card!

It does amuse me that the new cards are actually green. They are much better looking than the old and boring white ones we received for AOS.

[Nina~ 431]

I doubt there will be more approvals till next year after the holiday season is over. I hope there aren't any major snowstorms that will slow down VSC more next Jan & Feb.

[mr and mrs 187]

I doubt there will be more approvals till next year after the holiday season is over. I hope there aren't any major snowstorms that will slow down VSC more next Jan & Feb.

there are 24 perfectly good business days before the new year!

[rocks 494]

there are 24 perfectly good business days before the new year!

We might see a couple of approvals in that time. At least I only have 5.5 more months to go.

[mr and mrs 187]

At least I only have 5.5 more months to go.

HUSH!!

[rocks 494]

HUSH!!

Sorry for my lack of optimism.

After the mess with my biometrics appointment I am expecting to wait until xmas 2012.

[Nina~ 431]

there are 24 perfectly good business days before the new year!

They will be all used up for holiday parties

[bolbam 0]

Hello Everyone,

I am an April filer and have been following this forum for the past few months keeping track of whats going on. I wanted to let you know that I received my approval notice in the mail today (Super Excited!)

Here is my timeline and hopefully all the other April 2011 filers will be getting their approvals very soon.

-----------------------

Vermont Service Center

----------------------

I-751 Mailed - April 18th

NOA - April 22nd

Biometrics - June 13th

Approval Date - November 22nd (Notice mailed on 11/23 and received on 11/28)

The notice said that I should receive my card in 60 days.

I must say that it was a very pleasant surprise to get the approval notice given that hardly anyone in this forum has got approvals from VSC. I hope that there will be a flurry of approvals very soon.

Thanks everyone for sharing their experiences and timelines.