Good News For Obamer:

[Danno 1,228]

I have long predicted the GOP will protect Obama from himself in 2012.

IF the they take the Senate, it is a near certainty.

Republicans in solid shape to take control of Senate next year

By Shane D'Aprile - 03/05/11 07:14 PM ET

An early spate of Democratic Senate retirements has put Republicans in solid shape to retake the majority in the upper chamber next year.

The first edition of The Hill's 2012 race ratings puts five Democratic-held seats in the toss-up column. Republicans need a net gain of at least three seats to win the Senate.

Sens. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) and Ben Nelson (D-Neb.) are the two incumbents that top of the list of vulnerable Senate Democrats in 2012. And, thanks to retirements, another three Democratic-held seats are toss-ups -- the ones held by Sens. Kent Conrad (N.D.), Jeff Bingaman (N.M.) and Jim Webb (Va.).

On the House side, Democrats need to pick up 25 seats to win back the majority and, as a starting point, Dems are targeting 14 of the most Democratic-leaning House seats held by Republican lawmakers.

Among them are freshmen Reps. Allen West (R-Fla.), Robert Dold (R-Ill.), Lou Barletta (R-Pa.) and Ann Marie Buerkle (R-N.Y.). All occupy districts won by both Obama in 2008 and Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) in 2004; and all begin the cycle in our toss-up category.

The major caveat on the House side is redistricting, which will change the electoral landscape substantially ahead of next year, potentially squeezing out several members and setting up incumbent vs. incumbent match-ups in other states.

The House and Senate lists are sure to be flux with the potential for additional retirements in both chambers and recruiting efforts on the House side largely on hold until new district lines are set, but here's an early look at the 2012 landscape.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/147669-republicans-in-solid-shape-to-take-senate-next-year

[Obama 2012 1,714]

now who's going to protect the GOP from themselves.

[Danno 1,228]

I'm not so sure it;s the GOP needing protection from themselves..... it's more like: THe fire Dept looks less important *after* the fire appears to be brought under control.

[SMR 368]

Simply looking at the numbers, you would expect 2012 to have the potential to be a better year than 2010 for the Republicans in the Senate. That's because the senators up for re-election in 2010 were elected in 2004, when Bush was re-elected and Republicans did well. That means that a majority of those up for re-election in 2010 were Republicans even though the senate as a whole was and is majority Democrat. In 2012, we're electing in districts that were last up in 2006, when Democrats did well. So there will be a larger percentage of the seats in 2012 held by Democrats coming in. While that means Democrats have an incumbent advantage, it also means they have a lot more to lose.