K1's at VSC are at a stand still

[Ilona&Rimas 1]

I'm glad to be out of the way of those who are waiting for the approval. We got our NOA2 e-mail yesterday, 4.45 US time, I couldn't believe it - it was friday, who would be working 15 mins to the end of a last working day of a week? My respects to VSC! Keep going!

Best wishes to all in this joyrney, your time is coming too!

[Al422 221]

They do the dreaded "TPS reports" at VSC? No wonder things are slow! And here I thought TPS reports were a fictional creation of the movie, "Office Space", only to find out they are something USCIS does! http://en.wikipedia....wiki/TPS_report

Yeah, another one of President Obamination's vast projects with half vast ideas. He dumped hundreds of thousands of these on Vermont with no regard for their current workload, and then some other genius decided to push all of them in line ahead of the K-1s, turning a two month process into the 6 to 7 month one that we have been experiencing.

Edited February 5, 2011 by Al422

[Ilona&Rimas 1]

Just a quick note that we were listed here at 134 yesterday and we received our approval last night, so its moving faster than we know. Just don't leave your phone on vibrate in case your fiancee tries to call you with the good news!!

[ZedbraGuy 6]

VSC is currently pumping out K1's much faster than CSC

VJ maybe a good quote for K1's but don't forget K1's are a tiny proportion of visas. about 30k out of 1m

[rsn 135]

The best advice anyone ever gave me during this process was 'stop obsessively pouring over the "statistics"'. There are definitely people in this thread who are spending way too much time trying to make sense of these numbers. This will get you no where. Just wait until the 5 month mark and bring your senator into the mix if you don't have your NOA2 at that point. In the meantime, find a hobby.

[JoyDee 21]

hahah exactly what I was thinking, they have samples smaller then 1% and with a sample of 5% you can estimate with 99% accurasy.

THats why I dont get it when people keep saying oh we only make up a small portion of the total, you dont need the whole population to figure out whats going on. Besides we are the perfect random sample, different ages, regions, incomes, races, sexes. You couldnt get a better sample. What happens on here is directly reprasentative of the population

From a data analysis standpoint we are not a very good sample at all. In particular, we are not random. VJers are people who have computer access on a regular basis, we are probably more proactive than the average joe. We are also people who for the most part filed the cases ourselves. And we are those folks who just happened to come across this site in the process of filing, actually set up an account and updated a timeline. Not random at all! In any case, good luck!

[villaspurs 65]

Nielsen et al. use sampling frames and highly controlled sampling procedures so they can make as accurate estimates as possible. They also use several techniques to ensure accurate and timely participation (incentives, reminder calls, etc.). We have a convenience sample here on VJ, which means we all came here, signed up, etc., and are responsible for updating timelines at our own convenience. There is no law of large numbers. We shouldn't assume that there is anywhere near 99% accuracy just because there are a bunch of people. People sign up here because they aren't using lawyers, have complicated situations, need additional help, etc. We don't know how this compares to the general population of petitioners and beneficiaries.

[B_J 2,752]

From a data analysis standpoint we are not a very good sample at all. In particular, we are not random. VJers are people who have computer access on a regular basis, we are probably more proactive than the average joe. We are also people who for the most part filed the cases ourselves. And we are those folks who just happened to come across this site in the process of filing, actually set up an account and updated a timeline. Not random at all! In any case, good luck!

We're also better looking than the average person.

[edp333 9]

Only using samples from VJ is called biased sampling, which does not give an accurate sample of all visa applicants. This would be skewed rather than symmetrical.

Also, in statistics it is not 98% accuracy, it is "there is a 95% probability that the number will fall within a cetain range"(e.g. between 5 and 9). Probability is the likelihood of something happening or being true.

This is some of the ways statistics are easily mis-intrepeted to fit someones purpose.

[Al422 221]

From a data analysis standpoint we are not a very good sample at all. In particular, we are not random. VJers are people who have computer access on a regular basis, we are probably more proactive than the average joe. We are also people who for the most part filed the cases ourselves. And we are those folks who just happened to come across this site in the process of filing, actually set up an account and updated a timeline. Not random at all! In any case, good luck!

Most of the U.S. population has computers in their homes or at work or both. Most people who filed themselves are more proactive than the filers who ran to lawyers. But I can't see how any of this would skew the sample one way or the other. The only factors driving people here I can see that might skew the sample are:

1. We get advice here that non VJ people do not have access to, so we make fewer mistakes and fix them faster and know better how to light a fire under USCIS's chair if they are late.

2. People with built-in problems like criminal histories or fiances from problematic countries are more inclined to look for advice on the internet and find this place.

One of these factors is positive and one negative, so they probably offset each other to an extent.

Granted our sample would probably not hold muster for a Big 8 accounting firm auditing a Fortune 500 corporation, but for our purposes, I think it is close enough to draw inferences to the K-1 population as a whole, maybe not 98%, maybe only 90%, but close enough.

'

[dogspot 90]

5% is a good long term sample...advertisers spend ten of millions of dollars on Neilson ratings with a far smaller percentage..also at election time...they would be lucky to sample one percent of the voters..

Exactly!

OP, you need to remember that you saw the bulk of those approvals on a Monday. I subscribe to the theory that many of those were approved over the weekend and the system updated on Monday morning, when the adjudicators had access to the system to enter the data. It wouldn't surprise me if you something similar this Monday.

Also, you had nearly 70 approvals this past week. Quit your complaining.

[Penny Lane 8,159]

I cannot believe this thread.

People complained, rightfully so, when VSC was terribly slow.

Now, VSC sped up, made up a LOT of ground last week, approved nearly 70 petitions, and ... still complaints.

You can't have 20 approvals a day.

Stop obsessing over the numbers, life your life, and the NOA2 will come.

Edited February 5, 2011 by Coconuts

[CarlosAndSveta 808]

VJ members,. at approximately 5% of the total K-1 petitioners, represent a valid statistical sample of the whole. I don't know the exact accuracy number, but 98% sound about right.

We can only speculate what has slowed Vermont down these past two days. Maybe it is weather, and maybe it is their own doing, like a decision to do more TPS or other non-citizen work.

Regardless of what it is, what we need to do remains the same: Use our tools (phone, e-mails and Congress) to maximize the pressure on them to work on only our petitions. I have been urging this course of action all along, even when they were moving because they could slow down in an instant, and lo and behold, it happened.

We need to not only use our tools but to keep using them regardless of how fast or slow Vermont moves. This latest slowdown demonstrates what I have been writing about all along: We can't slack off, not even for a day. When we slack off, they slack off.

Hopefully, whatever is slowing them down will be over with soon. But in the meantime, use your tools. And keep on using them no matter how much speed they pick up.

somehow I am very skeptikal at how much "pressure" can really be applied. I feel like they dont even pay attention to our calls or emials or letters. I could be wrong but having seen how some government organizations run first hand I find it hard to believe they take people complaining very seriously BUTTTT it cant hurt

Oh and if in fact we are 5% then that is more then a valid sample haha. are you kidding samples are usually something like 1000 for a million that would be 0.10% so 5.00% lol yea thats plenty to be valid and then some

5% is a good long term sample...advertisers spend ten of millions of dollars on Neilson ratings with a far smaller percentage..also at election time...they would be lucky to sample one percent of the voters..

Using the results of people here on Visa Journey is not a valid statistical sample. The data collected from people at Visa Journey might be a good approximation but it is definitely not valid statistical sample. The key to statistical sampling is that you must take a random sample. One characteristic of a random sample is that every object in the population of things to be sampled must have an equal chance of being selected in the sample. If the K-1 filers in Visa Journey only represent only 5% of all K-1 filers across the nation then you have excluded 95% of the population of K-1 filers. K-1 visa filers at Visa Journey are not a random sample.

Edited February 5, 2011 by CarlosAndSveta

[Al422 221]

I'm trying to be factual as to why Vermont got so far behind and at the same time reminding people that Vermont is still behind, even though they are catching up.

Vermont might know that the present situation, although much better than a month ago, is still unacceptable and when they catch up and stay caught up is the only time things will be good. But then they might not know it. It would be nice if they would tell us so we could respond in a more precise manner and not have to paint with such a broad brush, but they won't.

Yeah, I know, I am hard to please. Our company employees tell me the same thing, but I hear no complaints from them on payday when they get their big fat checks with lots of overtime. So I offer no apologies for my result oriented thinking, either to them or to anyone else.

[Jun&Scheillo 6]

I can't wait for next week. I really wanted to ask what was going on with vermont's sudden change from thursday (02/03). I had to hold on to my thoughts because I'm aware of the weather condition over there up north. I think we should all be fair enough and give Vermont some time before we judge them.

They have every reason to show some real actions, the few approvals from last week have not moved me. Especially when I saw a noa2 from july 3rd without any RFEs. Seven months is too long of a wait for processing an application, and then we have another Journey from the NVC to the ambassy and more. That could happen to anyone of us. So, let's

wait for next week or when the weather condition changes and then, give the verdict!