Next Year's Wars

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This article lists a number of potential problem spots for 2011. I am excerpting only those that lie in the Western hemisphere. After all, who really cares about Côte d'Ivoire? Mexico is much closer to home.

Colombia

At first glance, Colombia's prospects for 2011 look bright. The country's new president, Juan Manuel Santos, has surprised many former critics with his bold reform proposals, many of which are aimed at addressing the root causes of the country's 46-year civil conflict against leftist rebels. He has mended relations with neighbouring Venezuela and Ecuador, committed to protect human rights advocates, and proposed legislation to help resettle the country's four million displaced.

The news is not all good, however. Despite a series of strategic losses in recent years -- from territory to key leadership -- the country's leftist guerrillas, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), still maintain about 8,000 armed troops and perhaps twice that number of supporters. The rebels killed some 30 police in the weeks after Santos's inauguration, clearly to make a point. Meanwhile, new illegal armed groups have sprung up to capture the drug trafficking market, their ranks filled with former paramilitary fighters. These gangs are largely responsible for the rising incidence of urban violence; homicide rates have gone up by over 100 percent in Colombia's second city, Medellín, last year.

If these new armed groups are not contained, Colombia stands to regress in its long fight to finally root out the drug trade -- and the militancy it fuels. In such a scenario, FARC could see a comeback, restarting its campaign of terror in the country's major cities. As has been the case so often in Colombia's recent history, it would be the civilian population who would suffer most from such a return to conflict.

Yet the opposite scenario is equally likely in the coming months. Santos has worked with his counterparts in Venezuela and Ecuador to increase border surveillance, putting pressure on illegal armed groups holed up there. Under such pressure, FARC may even welcome the chance to start talks with the government about disarmament and reintegration. Much rests in this government's hands.

Venezuela

Over the next 12 months, watch for Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez to take his brand of 21st-century socialism to the extremes. Having lost his majority in Parliament in September, Chávez has since been working hard to ensure that the new, opposition legislature will be irrelevant by the time it is sworn in in January. The Venezuelan president has consolidated control over the military and police, seized more private companies, and won temporary "decree powers" from the outgoing, pro-government National Assembly.

Chávez's power grab comes as the country's economic, social, and security problems are mounting. Violence has spiked dramatically in urban areas; there were some 19,000 homicides in 2009 out of a population of 28 million. In recent years, Venezuela has become a major drug-trafficking corridor, home to foreign and domestic cartels alike. State security forces have also been accused of participating in criminal activity. Meanwhile, Chávez has escalated -- rather than soothed -- the situation with fiery, partisan rhetoric that seems to egg on a violent suppression of the opposition. That message has an audience; government-allied street gangs in Caracas stand ready to defend his revolution with Kalashnikovs.

Mexico

It has been four years since Mexican President Felipe Calderón declared war on the country's drug lords. During that time, 30,000 people have fallen victim to the conflict, many of them along the northern border with the United States, largely as a result of in-fighting among rival gangs vying for control of trafficking corridors. Today, Ciudad Juarez, a border city near Texas, competes with Caracas as the most deadly city in the world. Over the last 12 months, the violence has spread to Mexico's economic and cultural hubs that were once considered immune from drug infiltration. To the north, Mexico's organized crime routes now reach into nearly every metropolitan area of the United States.

In short, despite a $400 million annual aid package from the United States, and big boosts in funding for the military, it's far from clear whether the government of Mexico is winning -- or can win -- this battle.

During the last year in particular, Calderón has been criticized for the conduct of the narco war. Not only is it difficult to pinpoint clear progress, but for many, life has visibly deteriorated since the crackdown began. Twenty times more Mexicans have died during the last four years than Americans have in the entire war in Afghanistan. Two gubernatorial candidates and 11 mayors have been assassinated. The press is under increasing pressure to self-censor. One paper in Ciudad Juárez went as far as asking, in an open letter to the cartels, what it was that they were allowed to publish.

"Winning" would require a hard look at the Mexican military and police, which have been credibly accused of committing flagrant abuses while fighting the drug gangs. The judicial system likewise needs strengthening to bring the guilty to fair trial. And, of course, much depends on Mexico's northern neighbor: America remains the largest market for drugs in the world, and so long as U.S. users demand product, the cartels will keep the supply flowing.

Guatemala

Mexico's drug war is also sending shockwaves throughout Latin America. Under pressure from the Mexican state, the most infamous cartels are seeking friendlier ground and finding it in Guatemala, where the state is weak and the institutions are fragile. In the worst case scenario for 2011, Guatemala could be host to a perpetual turf war of attrition between these various cartels, all competing to control drug trafficking routes -- and increasingly human-trafficking corridors -- to the United States.

So far, Guatemala's best ally in fighting back has been the International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG), a tribunal-like institution set up to root out corrupt and cartel-tainted officials. But its mandate ends in 2011 and its star prosecutor recently resigned, claiming that the political leadership was thwarting his work. Presidential elections are slotted for August, but early polls suggest a polarized nation, with around 20 candidates and no clear front runner. That's just the sort of uncertainty that cartels are good at exploiting.

Haiti

Nature had it in for Haiti in 2010, but it may be politics that batters the small island country in the coming year. The poorest country in the Western Hemisphere began the year with a devastating January earthquake that killed more than 300,000, a deadly cholera outbreak, and a tortuously slow reconstruction process, which remains way off the pace and beset with difficulties. A November 28 presidential election, which should have led to the election of a new, legitimate government, remains wedged in an impasse over allegations of fraud. The winner won't be decided until a run-off vote is held in January, but protests have already erupted over what some saw as the unfair exclusion of certain candidates in the second round. At least a dozen lives have been lost in the street clashes so far.

Already, Haiti was on the verge of a social breakdown. Today, more than 1 million Haitians remain homeless in the ruined capital. The government, whose ranks and infrastructure were devastated by the earthquake, has no capacity to deliver services or provide security. And international aid groups and U.N. peacekeepers can only plug those gaps temporarily. Relief work has also been hampered by a lack of funding. Despite big promises from international donors, dollars have been slow to trickle into the country.

This precarious situation will make for an enormous challenge if and when a new government does at last come to power next year. The run-off election will mark a year since the earthquake, with little improvement in the everyday lives of Haitians, whose patience is running out.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/12/28/next_years_wars?page=full

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

Mexico will continue to deteriorate. The question is, will the US be willing to do to Mexico, what we have done in more distant trouble spots? It won't be the first time the US has sent campaigns south of the border. Maybe we can annex the rest of California this time.

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Maybe we can annex the rest of California this time.

Yes, because having RWNs whine about even more Spanish speaking Americans is exactly what we need.

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

Yes, because having RWNs whine about even more Spanish speaking Americans is exactly what we need.

Unless they are Cuban, then it's okay.

[웃 910]

Mexico will continue to deteriorate. The question is, will the US be willing to do to Mexico, what we have done in more distant trouble spots? It won't be the first time the US has sent campaigns south of the border. Maybe we can annex the rest of California this time.

I take it you don't know much about Mexico?

Mexico 'breaks the BRIC' to appear in top four emerging economies

Mexico has edged ahead of Brazil in terms of opportunities for investment and development, according to the International Business Report (IBR), produced by Grant Thornton International. The emerging markets index, produced using a weighted calculation of key indicators*, shows China, India and Russia still occupying the top three places followed by Mexico in fourth and Brazil in fifth.

Mexico's appearance in fourth place reflects its substantial international trade (combined exports and imports are second only to China) and its relatively high standard of living. Out of the top five emerging markets, Mexico's GDP per head comes out ahead of China, India and Brazil and is a close second to Russia.

China and India still stand out as the emerging markets with the best opportunities, due to their GDP and population size, growth potential and substantial imports.

Mexico's position in fourth place comes as no surprise to Hector Perez, managing partner of Grant Thornton in Mexico. "The Mexican economy has had unprecedented stability for the last seven to eight years," he says. "Inflation and the peso have been stable. The country has 12 free trade agreements with 43 countries and exports have surged. Mexico also benefits from well qualified labour, together with powerful manufacturing and assembly industries. Its proximity to the US, too, is an important feature."

To support the index, the Grant Thornton IBR survey also found that the number of privately held businesses (PHBs) that export has increased from 35 per cent in 2003 to 37 per cent in 2008. However, there are regional variations in the data with EU (49 to 53 per cent) and East Asian countries (30 to 39 per cent) showing marked increases in exports, while NAFTA** countries' exports have marginally declined (31 to 30 per cent). The economic upturn in the eurozone in 2006-2007, coupled with fundamentally strong intra-EU trade have helped countries in the EU feature prominently at the top of the rankings.

Investing in emerging markets

The survey also shows that PHBs value the 'importance of market size and growth potential' more than anything else when determining their investment strategy. This factor was ranked first globally (56 per cent) as well as in all regions except Latin America where it came marginally behind 'political and economic stability'.

Political and economic stability was a particularly important factor for EU businesses and those in the United States. This suggests that businesses in mature economies are perhaps more likely to build their export strategies around general economic considerations than those in emerging markets where political factors and regulatory concerns are more in evidence.

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

No cite?

So, you are trying to say the US should have no concerns about recent events in Mexico?

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... according to the International Business Report (IBR), produced by Grant Thornton International.

That's enough information for you to go find the cite, should you wish to do so.

http://www.gti.org/Press-room/Mexico-breaks-the-BRIC.asp

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

http://www.gti.org/Press-room/Mexico-breaks-the-BRIC.asp

The research was conducted by Experian Business Strategies Limited.

Thanks. All I need to know.

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Thanks. All I need to know.

So tell us what you've learned, Sensei.

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

So tell us what you've learned, Sensei.

That would be telling, grasshopper.