September 2010 CSC K1

[Geode 3]

Is it helpful to get all of the September CSC K1 messages in one place? There are a couple of other topics that look like this one, so if this is a duplicate, would one of you manager people delete this one please.

I noticed that the approximate processing date for common forms for CSC has changed to July 5, 2010. What does this mean?

[Geode 3]

Just giving this one more try.

Here is an interesting page at USCIS: http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=6&office=2&charttype=1

Comparing the charts for VSC and CSC makes it clear that if your papers are at CSC you are just SOL.

Of course, that is assuming the data for the charts are accurate and up-to-date. Notice that the year is not listed and that the charts stop at what appears to be July 10. Don't bother downloading the raw data. It is only the numbers displayed on the charts, not the data used to create the charts.

[Geode 3]

HA! Just realized that the USCIS page above shows dates as monthyear (Jun10 is June 2010 for example) on the trend charts. Interesting that there are no numbers for July, August, or September.

[gap1 21]

HA! Just realized that the USCIS page above shows dates as monthyear (Jun10 is June 2010 for example) on the trend charts. Interesting that there are no numbers for July, August, or September.

Interesting or heart-wrenching?

[Geode 3]

Yes, that too.

I have been trying to make sense of the data on the time line pages. One "rule" that helps with confusing information is to dump half of it and see if it points to the same conclusion. It is difficult sometimes know exactly what to dump. There are a number of records with obvious errors, even more that are not updated, and then those fortunate few who had reason (that may not be so fortunate) to have their petition processed quickly. Without doing anything other than eliminating those records and a gut feel analysis of the rest, CSC is at least 45 days behind VSC.

Hope things go quickly for you.

[thelastpetitioner 218]

HA! Just realized that the USCIS page above shows dates as monthyear (Jun10 is June 2010 for example) on the trend charts. Interesting that there are no numbers for July, August, or September.

ummm there is data on july

[Geode 3]

ummm there is data on july

Someone is alive at CSC, or the computer is just spiting out numbers. Are there any estimates of the percentage of 129f petitioners who also have VJ accounts?

Edited October 13, 2010 by Geode

[thelastpetitioner 218]

Someone is alive at CSC, or the computer is just spiting out numbers. Are there any estimates of the percentage of 129f petitioners who also have VJ accounts?

easy there tiger,there are a few theories as of why the process is slow

A) CSC removed all the employees from working on k-1 visas to focus on cr-1 and k-3

B) some end of fiscal year related bullshit

OR my favorite

they are just flat out lazy,which couldnt possibly go on for 5 months

[En&Em 1]

I am one of the masses who wants CSC to start moving on I-129Fs. When? I hope soon!

Here is my post that outlines the I-130 / IR-1 / CR-1 theory:

I have posted this a couple times this past week, but is fits this thread, too:

I check the progress several times each day to try to determine what CSC is doing.

Based in VJ reports, it seems CSC is focused on I-130s (IR-1/CR-1) applications, with up to five or six receiving an NOA2 each day.

You can see this in the following link:

CSC - I-130 status

Meanwhile, the 1-129Fs are having little or no movement. You can watch CSC's processing of I-129Fs here:

CSC - I-129F status

I cannot wait until 1-129Fs pick up again...

This info seems a lot more detailed than the table of "Approximate Processing Dates" that you find when you click on "Immigration Timelines." I don't really understand how that table is put together. The dates for CSC change by several weeks at a time sometimes on that chart, even though little seems to be happening on the more detailed reports based on the links above.

Good luck to all! May your love endure, and your visa come quickly!

I would very much like CSC to be processing I-129Fs, just like almost all of us. But, unfortunately, we have no control over what is happening or how CSC distributes staff/workload. I wish I did. I know which file would have top priority! (Along with everyone else in this thread and related ones.) But, alas, ...

- from the thread: Any recent approvals from CSC?

[Geode 3]

Thanks, I had seen your post before but did not know enough yet to understand it. Maybe I still do not, but it is still clear that CSC has problems.

I am one of the masses who wants CSC to start moving on I-129Fs. When? I hope soon!

Here is my post that outlines the I-130 / IR-1 / CR-1 theory:

- from the thread: Any recent approvals from CSC?

[En&Em 1]

Thanks, I had seen your post before but did not know enough yet to understand it. Maybe I still do not, but it is still clear that CSC has problems.

Well, to be more clear, one of the features of VJ is that multiple people are self-reporting their application processing timelines. If the information is good enough and there is a large enough sample, we can get an idea of what is happening with CSC's overall caseload.

My opinion is that VJ has sufficient reliability in its self-reports and a large enough sample to give us a pretty good idea. Of course, the information is a little imperfect, because people make errors or don't update their timelines or whatever. But for I-129Fs, if you look at the reports from the links (the longer ones, organized by NOA1 issued by each month, approved and unapproved petitions), there are approximately 80-90 or so applications being reported each month for CSC. Similarly, for I-130s, there seem to be about 60-70 or so applications being reported each month for CSC. And from the history, VJ participants seem to follow through with reporting timeline updates at a rate of at least 80-90%.

Moreover, from these same charts (the longer ones--or even the bar graphs), you can see that CSC has processed most I-129s through May 2010, and most I-130s through April 2010. This seems to show that CSC is a little further behind in processing the I-130s--about a month (assuming the timelines for each of these applications typically would be similar).

MOST NOTABLY, based on the top reports from the links (Last 15 Approved Applications), we can see that CSC is reported to have approved only three or four I-129Fs (i.e., CSC issued the NOA2) from VJ participants during the ENTIRE PAST MONTH. To keep up with the filings, at the 80-90% reporting rate, CSC would have to approve about 70 or so applications each month. Thus, it seems that CSC is at a virtual standstill with I-129Fs right now.

For I-130s, CSC is reported to have approved four to six I-130s (again, by issuing an NOA2) from VJ participants EACH BUSINESS DAY. (Please note that I am disregarding reports from the last couple days, in case VJ participants need more time to self-report their updates.) This would equal about 80-100 approvals of VJ participants per month (assuming an average of four to five each day, with about 20 business days in the month). Thus, CSC seems to be processing I-130s at a solid pace.

Does that make more sense? Or is it too many numbers?

[En&Em 1]

Just giving this one more try.

Here is an interesting page at USCIS: http://dashboard.usc...e=2&charttype=1

Comparing the charts for VSC and CSC makes it clear that if your papers are at CSC you are just SOL.

Of course, that is assuming the data for the charts are accurate and up-to-date. Notice that the year is not listed and that the charts stop at what appears to be July 10. Don't bother downloading the raw data. It is only the numbers displayed on the charts, not the data used to create the charts.

I actually have trouble being able to compare much between VSC and CSC from the charts on the official link from USCIS.

It is interesting to see, however, that CSC receives about 2,000 I-129F applications each month.

[Geode 3]

Crystal!! Thank you

Well, to be more clear, one of the features of VJ is that multiple people are self-reporting their application processing timelines. If the information is good enough and there is a large enough sample, we can get an idea of what is happening with CSC's overall caseload.

My opinion is that VJ has sufficient reliability in its self-reports and a large enough sample to give us a pretty good idea. Of course, the information is a little imperfect, because people make errors or don't update their timelines or whatever. But for I-129Fs, if you look at the reports from the links (the longer ones, organized by NOA1 issued by each month, approved and unapproved petitions), there are approximately 80-90 or so applications being reported each month for CSC. Similarly, for I-130s, there seem to be about 60-70 or so applications being reported each month for CSC. And from the history, VJ participants seem to follow through with reporting timeline updates at a rate of at least 80-90%.

Moreover, from these same charts (the longer ones--or even the bar graphs), you can see that CSC has processed most I-129s through May 2010, and most I-130s through April 2010. This seems to show that CSC is a little further behind in processing the I-130s--about a month (assuming the timelines for each of these applications typically would be similar).

MOST NOTABLY, based on the top reports from the links (Last 15 Approved Applications), we can see that CSC is reported to have approved only three or four I-129Fs (i.e., CSC issued the NOA2) from VJ participants during the ENTIRE PAST MONTH. To keep up with the filings, at the 80-90% reporting rate, CSC would have to approve about 70 or so applications each month. Thus, it seems that CSC is at a virtual standstill with I-129Fs right now.

For I-130s, CSC is reported to have approved four to six I-130s (again, by issuing an NOA2) from VJ participants EACH BUSINESS DAY. (Please note that I am disregarding reports from the last couple days, in case VJ participants need more time to self-report their updates.) This would equal about 80-100 approvals of VJ participants per month (assuming an average of four to five each day, with about 20 business days in the month). Thus, CSC seems to be processing I-130s at a solid pace.

Does that make more sense? Or is it too many numbers?

[Geode 3]

I actually have trouble being able to compare much between VSC and CSC from the charts on the official link from USCIS.

It is interesting to see, however, that CSC receives about 2,000 I-129F applications each month.

I looked on the USCIS at the number of 129fs approved at VSC and CSC. The volume charts show the latest month. For July, CSC is reporting 1984 approvals. VSC is reporting 3019 approvals. CSC reports 16,277 I-130 for immediate relatives. That supports your analysis of 129 versus 130 petitions. VJ shows about 75 approvals for I130 in july. It gets fuzzy from there for me. The USCIS site reports on at least two types of I130s, the VJ site separates K3 and IR1/CR1. That makes it more difficult to see if the VJ data can be thought of as a decent subset of the USCIS data.

I guess that in the long run (no pun intended) looking at the numbers is way to pass the time until CSC gets off their bums and does what they are paid to do - process K1 petitions as well as others.

[En&Em 1]

I looked on the USCIS at the number of 129fs approved at VSC and CSC. The volume charts show the latest month. For July, CSC is reporting 1984 approvals. VSC is reporting 3019 approvals. CSC reports 16,277 I-130 for immediate relatives. That supports your analysis of 129 versus 130 petitions. VJ shows about 75 approvals for I130 in july. It gets fuzzy from there for me. The USCIS site reports on at least two types of I130s, the VJ site separates K3 and IR1/CR1. That makes it more difficult to see if the VJ data can be thought of as a decent subset of the USCIS data.

I guess that in the long run (no pun intended) looking at the numbers is way to pass the time until CSC gets off their bums and does what they are paid to do - process K1 petitions as well as others.

Thank you! That helps. I just find USCIS's presentation to be less helpful (not to mention a few months behind).

As for the I-130 information from USCIS, my understanding is that USCIS is presenting any and all I-130s, which can be used for other family members, not just spouses. So the USCIS information includes all these applications, while the VJ stats to which I provided the link involve I-130 applications only for spouses.

Looking at the numbers doesn't help me pass the time. I do it because I want to have an idea about how long the wait will be. I saw that not much was happening, and then I have been looking for explanations and comparisons. I've looked at VSC and then the I-130s, which led me to the theory in my previous post.

At this point, I just keep looking in hopes of discovering that CSC has started processing I-129Fs more regularly. We're all still waiting...

Edited October 14, 2010 by En&Em