Australian bonds

[scandal 951]

China won't be able to get away with another tiananmen square.

Why the hell not? They got away with the first one.

I thought this thread was about the great yields on Aussie bonds?

[Darnell 8,479]

All well and good for China, however what is China going to do when the sh@t hits the fan? I mean, when their people demand more rights and all things American or AUS? They will eventually have a lot to deal with internally. Currently they can ignore demands from their people, but with so many people, the people will eventually have power to demand better everything at home. Just imagine if 10 million people get mad and camp out on highways or major down town areas to stop production. China won't be able to get away with another tiananmen square.

I'm betting the Army will be deployed, if it gets worse than that traffic jam recently.

For a 'nice version' without protest or Army-guns involvement, study the yearly exodus on the Migrant Workers returning home during Chinese New Year. If you can avoid it, try really hard not to be in China for those 2-3 weeks (Unless yer really fit and can run fast with all yer gear on yer back).

Edited September 28, 2010 by Darnell

[luckytxn 2,265]

China does do well as they can on demand do anything they want and the citizens have no choice but to obey but they have many problems that will crop up in the future and how they handle this will mean whether they can sustain this great onward leap they are doing. Of course since they are starting from such a low anything they do to increase their share of the pie will seem high but eventually they will plateau and to keep the indicators going up will mean more resources. So far they are spending a lot on infrastructure but they still have nightmare traffic jams and blackouts. They will need to keep pumping more and more of their money into infrastructure to just keep an even balance. They have some natural resources but not near enough as they use Australia's resources so thus propping up that countries economy for now. They also are big buyers of U.S. resources and that makes us happy too.

They buy up all the oil they can get at whatever price from Indonesia and middle east and Russia. They have to share this resource with the world though and it is a cut throat business. They are already eyeing the Islands and area that has a huge potential for reserves of oil but many other countries have a better claim to them (especially Vietnam) they have to keep building their Navy and military to flex their muscles to make that grab. They are doing so now and saying that they are theirs and that is making many neighbors nervous. If they make that grab it will mean that everyone in that part of the world will either give in and let them take it and appear weak or flex a muscle themselves. This will directly affect everyone in the region. They make this grab then you can bet they will then be on the door step to the very partners that the U.S, supports. (And the Australian's) If no one flex's their muscles then they probably will become emboldened and tell Taiwan that they are now China proper and embargo that island. Eventually their military will have to start spreading into indo china to quell them.

Of course Australia will be powerless to do anything and be forced to lick their boots as they have no military to combat them. Ditto Indonesia and Thailand. Once that move is accomplished then they will dictate terms to those countries and they will have to accept whatever. They will still buy the resources though as long as no squeaks come from them. They squeal then China will place the boot on them and take what they want. What can they do about it?

If anyone thinks this is fanciful then I suggest they start googling as they have already started the process of this happening already. They have already beotch slapped Vietnam a couple of times. (Pretty much why that country is now our biggest buddies)

India is a wild card of course but as long as China stops at Cambodia they will do nothing. They may do nothing even if China stops at Thailand. China does noy want too much discord with India. Japan is a joke to them and a lot of hostile history there. They do fear Russia to the north though and will accommodate them. Russia will for sure be happy to chat and listen to a win win scenario.

China actually does not have the natural resources on their own to continue their climb and buys most from others. Do not try to stop that flow or it will enrage them. They will make a play for supremacy in the coming years but it will probably be a decade or more, hopefully. There is one country they fear though and know that one country can stop them from what they want.

If the U.S. slaps them with a huge tariff and causes the huge influx of money to be interrupted then that will have consequences to Australia as then China will have no need to honor the huge contracts to buy all that Australia can produce in natural resources and that means their economy catches a big cold. The Asian markets will tumble. Of course that will hurt us too but we can withstand that as we have before easily. Many things to think about here.

[DEDixon 39]

Why the hell not? They got away with the first one.

I thought this thread was about the great yields on Aussie bonds?

i think a lot of companies would leave China in protest. i think the outrage would be 1000 fold.

funny you mentioned something about the thread going off topic just after commenting on something off topic. if you can do it, we can too.

China does do well as they can on demand do anything they want and the citizens have no choice but to obey but they have many problems that will crop up in the future and how they handle this will mean whether they can sustain this great onward leap they are doing. Of course since they are starting from such a low anything they do to increase their share of the pie will seem high but eventually they will plateau and to keep the indicators going up will mean more resources. So far they are spending a lot on infrastructure but they still have nightmare traffic jams and blackouts. They will need to keep pumping more and more of their money into infrastructure to just keep an even balance. They have some natural resources but not near enough as they use Australia's resources so thus propping up that countries economy for now. They also are big buyers of U.S. resources and that makes us happy too.

They buy up all the oil they can get at whatever price from Indonesia and middle east and Russia. They have to share this resource with the world though and it is a cut throat business. They are already eyeing the Islands and area that has a huge potential for reserves of oil but many other countries have a better claim to them (especially Vietnam) they have to keep building their Navy and military to flex their muscles to make that grab. They are doing so now and saying that they are theirs and that is making many neighbors nervous. If they make that grab it will mean that everyone in that part of the world will either give in and let them take it and appear weak or flex a muscle themselves. This will directly affect everyone in the region. They make this grab then you can bet they will then be on the door step to the very partners that the U.S, supports. (And the Australian's) If no one flex's their muscles then they probably will become emboldened and tell Taiwan that they are now China proper and embargo that island. Eventually their military will have to start spreading into indo china to quell them.

Of course Australia will be powerless to do anything and be forced to lick their boots as they have no military to combat them. Ditto Indonesia and Thailand. Once that move is accomplished then they will dictate terms to those countries and they will have to accept whatever. They will still buy the resources though as long as no squeaks come from them. They squeal then China will place the boot on them and take what they want. What can they do about it?

If anyone thinks this is fanciful then I suggest they start googling as they have already started the process of this happening already. They have already beotch slapped Vietnam a couple of times. (Pretty much why that country is now our biggest buddies)

India is a wild card of course but as long as China stops at Cambodia they will do nothing. They may do nothing even if China stops at Thailand. China does noy want too much discord with India. Japan is a joke to them and a lot of hostile history there. They do fear Russia to the north though and will accommodate them. Russia will for sure be happy to chat and listen to a win win scenario.

China actually does not have the natural resources on their own to continue their climb and buys most from others. Do not try to stop that flow or it will enrage them. They will make a play for supremacy in the coming years but it will probably be a decade or more, hopefully. There is one country they fear though and know that one country can stop them from what they want.

If the U.S. slaps them with a huge tariff and causes the huge influx of money to be interrupted then that will have consequences to Australia as then China will have no need to honor the huge contracts to buy all that Australia can produce in natural resources and that means their economy catches a big cold. The Asian markets will tumble. Of course that will hurt us too but we can withstand that as we have before easily. Many things to think about here.

interesting... sort of a world chess match.