Manpower: Hiring in 4th quarter won't be all that bad

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"When we consider what we are hearing from our clients and by looking at our own business, there is reason to be cautiously optimistic,” said. Manpower Inc. Chairman and CEO Jeff Joerres. “The hiring intentions for the fourth quarter are not enough to break through the labor market sound barrier that we’re all eagerly anticipating, as 71 percent of employers indicate no change in hiring.”

Of the more than 18,000 employers surveyed, 15% anticipate an increase in staff levels in their Quarter 4 2010 hiring plans, while 11% expect a decrease in payrolls, resulting in a Net Employment Outlook of +4%. When seasonally adjusted, the Net Employment Outlook improves slightly to +5%. Seventy-one percent of employers expect no change in their hiring plans. The final 3% of employers indicate they are undecided about their hiring intentions

http://www.businessinsider.com/hiring-plans-2010-9

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

Fourth quarter always shows increased hiring for the holiday season, as merchants look to finally show a profit for the year. By February, most of those new hires will either burn out and quit, or have their hours cut. Happens every year.

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Fourth quarter always shows increased hiring for the holiday season, as merchants look to finally show a profit for the year. By February, most of those new hires will either burn out and quit, or have their hours cut. Happens every year.

So the question really is whether this data is seasonally adjusted or not.

To answer that question I went to Manpower.com.

This is what I found.

Survey data reveals a seasonally adjusted Outlook of +5% for Quarter 4 2010, up from -1% during the same period last year and stable compared to Quarter 3 2010.

Edited September 7, 2010 by Legacy member

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

So the question really is whether this data is seasonally adjusted or not.

To answer that question I went to Manpower.com.

This is what I found.

Survey data reveals a seasonally adjusted Outlook of +5% for Quarter 4 2010, up from -1% during the same period last year and stable compared to Quarter 3 2010.

What exactly does that mean? It sounds like last year failed, and this year we expect to do better, so overall, things will be flat.

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What exactly does that mean? It sounds like last year failed, and this year we expect to do better, so overall, things will be flat.

What does seasonally adjusted mean? Is that your question?

Or is your question about the value of the Outlook? If that's the question, this should help:

Of the more than 18,000 employers surveyed, 15% anticipate an increase in staff levels in their Quarter 4 2010 hiring plans, while 11% expect a decrease in payrolls, resulting in a Net Employment Outlook of +4%.

Edited September 7, 2010 by Legacy member

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

What does seasonally adjusted mean? Is that your question?

Or is your question about the value of the Outlook? If that's the question, this should help:

Of the more than 18,000 employers surveyed, 15% anticipate an increase in staff levels in their Quarter 4 2010 hiring plans, while 11% expect a decrease in payrolls, resulting in a Net Employment Outlook of +4%.

I got that. Is that 4% over a seasonal norm, 4% over same period last year, or, 4% over third quarter this year?

[^_^ 5,021]

Of the more than 18,000 employers surveyed, 15% anticipate an increase in staff levels in their Quarter 4 2010 hiring plans, while 11% expect a decrease in payrolls, resulting in a Net Employment Outlook of +4%.

This 4% is not seasonally adjusted. It is a differential for this period of time. It is not relative to any other period of time.

Every period of time for which Manpower produces this report will have its own value for Outlook, both seasonally adjusted and otherwise.

When seasonally adjusted, the Net Employment Outlook improves slightly to +5%.

This 5% is seasonally adjusted. I don't know how Manpower seasonally adjusts, but in the industry in general these adjustments are made using knowledge of seasonal deviations derived from historical data. Again, this 5% is not relative to any other point in time but is a value specific to this period of time.

And lastly...

Survey data reveals a seasonally adjusted Outlook of +5% for Quarter 4 2010, up from -1% during the same period last year and stable compared to Quarter 3 2010.

The -1% in the excerpt above is a seasonally adjusted value for Outlook for 4Q 2009. So the value for 4Q 2009 was -1%, the value for 4Q 2010 is +5%. Those are two values for Outlook, each for their own specific period of time, neither relative to any other period of time. However, because both values were calculated the same way, they can be compared.

[Ban Hammer 13,469]

what, something that resembles good news, posted by aj? who hijacked aj's account?

[Gary and Alla 3,694]

Be still my heart! What great news. A definite "maybe" that it may not be "all that bad" especially if the government gives out tax cuts.

What rubbish! The best the democrats can do is this?????