ALL F4s

[lengygf 25]

Actually i have one graph ..which shows the number of petitions filled from 1997 to 2002 for F4.....i am trying to upload it..but it shows error over here......

so let me explain you..In the graph the demand of visas of PD 2001 is very very high up to July 2001 or august 2001...after august 2001 PD the demand become very very very low ).....now when i compared the demand of visas from august 2001 to December 2002 with the demand of 1999 Pd's it is almost same....so guys now u can check that the Pd of 1999 will cover in only 6 months........

I'm also interested in looking at the data and graph you have. I've tried to search for F4 demand data everywhere, and I've even emailed DOS and USCIS to request them via FOIA. However, I was repeatedly told that this information is not available anywhere except that Mr Charles Oppenheim, the person at DOS who makes the monthly VB, would tabulate all used & unused visa numbers monthly.

Therefore, I'm eager to take a look at the information you have, and hopefully I can have some surprising findings from them.

[prabh 0]

http://www.--.com/visa-bulletin-movement/f4-india.html

according to this the average wait time is around 11-12 years.

[jolly786 96]

House CIR bill is on the way .....some details of house CIR which are likely good as compared to Senate CIR....

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/07/17/bipartisan-group-in-house-closes-in-on-immigration-reform-compromise/

@savvy Boy....effort is not dead...GOT IT

[savvy.boy 13]

House CIR bill is on the way .....some details of house CIR which are likely good as compared to Senate CIR....

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/07/17/bipartisan-group-in-house-closes-in-on-immigration-reform-compromise/

@savvy Boy....effort is not dead...GOT IT

hmm

[iJustMadeThis 2]

House CIR bill is on the way .....some details of house CIR which are likely good as compared to Senate CIR....

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/07/17/bipartisan-group-in-house-closes-in-on-immigration-reform-compromise/

@savvy Boy....effort is not dead...GOT IT

House Gang of Seven isn't introducing its CIR bill until at least September.

http://www.latintimes.com/articles/6472/20130718/immigration-reform-2013-house-gang-seven-plan.htm

[iJustMadeThis 2]

Boehner hopes immigration bills pass before debt ceiling fight

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2013/07/18/boehner-hopes-immigration-bills-pass-before-debt-ceiling-fight/

"Congress is expected to consider the debt ceiling sometime this fall."

Edited July 18, 2013 by iJustMadeThis

[lengygf 25]

Boehner hopes immigration bills pass before debt ceiling fight

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2013/07/18/boehner-hopes-immigration-bills-pass-before-debt-ceiling-fight/

"Congress is expected to consider the debt ceiling sometime this fall."

Per my understanding, Republicans are against immigrants, both legal and illegal immigrants. One of the reasons they didn't take CIR bill from Senate is that they don't want so may legal immigrants to get their green card soon. So as far as I'm concerned on this reform, I don't want any immigration bill from House to pass, b/c for sure it/they will have negative impact on us.

Edited July 18, 2013 by lengygf

[savvy.boy 13]

Per my understanding, Republicans are against immigrants, both legal and illegal immigrants. One of the reasons they didn't take CIR bill from Senate is that they don't want so may legal immigrants to get their green card soon. So as far as I'm concerned on this reform, I don't want any immigration bill from House to pass, b/c for sure it/they will have negative impact on us.

Correct.

House will present Much more strick Bill.

it can badly effect legal immigration as well.

Conservatives are united against illegal immigration and pathway to citizenship.

this bill will not be easy one to pass from house.

conservatives donot have any focus on legal immigration , their target is illegal immigration.

they just don't want to give any thing to 11 million illegals.

if there is any backdoor deal between republicans and democrats , only than this bill will pass other wise it is impossible.

I would say , still 50 percent chance is that this bill won't pass.

now all depends on voting.

Edited July 19, 2013 by savvy.boy

[savvy.boy 13]

Congress is expected to consider the debt ceiling sometime this fall.

The astronomical fall (Northern Hemisphere) 2013 begins on

Sunday, September 22

and ends on

Friday, December 20

[Visa Grant 78]

CIR will delay for 1 month and will likely pass in September 2013....

Rather than dead,,atleast CIR is alive and kicking..

Good Luck..

[Visa Grant 78]

Per my understanding, Republicans are against immigrants, both legal and illegal immigrants. One of the reasons they didn't take CIR bill from Senate is that they don't want so may legal immigrants to get their green card soon. So as far as I'm concerned on this reform, I don't want any immigration bill from House to pass, b/c for sure it/they will have negative impact on us.

Right now atleast we are not seeing major changes being made to the legal immigration and all they are expressing their cocerns in the undocumented areas..

Good Luck..

[jolly786 96]

Rather than dead,,atleast CIR is alive and kicking..

Good Luck..

[Visa Grant 78]

Looking forward to get current in next month....!

Good Luck...

.....and keep us active..

...

Welcome Ailwal..

[Visa Grant 78]

It's possible that most of the LIFE Act beneficiaries were already given the immigrant visas back in late FY2010 and early FY2011 when F4 PD was well past April 30th, 2001. The slow PD movement we see today could be due to the residual LIFE Act beneficiaries who were unable to be fully adjusted in their status three years ago due to the Great Retrogression. If that's the case, PD for F4 should move at normal pace of 3-5 week/month from now, especially with three to four previous months having stalled.

Something intriguing I found from USCIS data (http://www.travel.st...wide_online.pdf):

Around PD April 30, 2001 (LIFE Act PD) for all Family-based categories (F1 to F4), PD movements either did not/rarely move for months AND/OR saw a large retrogression soon afterwards.

• F1: Stuck at April of 2001 for 14 months over FY2005 and FY2006, then retrogression of about three years three months later.
• F2A: Did not stall when LIFE Act PD approached, but 3-year retrogression soon after quickly moving across the Life Act PD, and PD was "Unavailable" for two months in late FY2006.
• F2B: PD moved much more quickly than F2A did during its LIFE Act PD, but retrogressed by two years in FY2011 a year after.
• F3: PD moved really slowly before LIFE Act PD (avg. of 2 weeks/month over two years) and retrogressed by 1 year in FY2010 after being stuck in May 1st, 2001 PD for months shortly beforehand.
• F4: PD moved over 30 months in FY2010 over LIFE Act PD, then retrogressed by two years shortly after.

It's as if all the retrogression across family-based categories occurred around LIFE Act PD of April 30th, 2001.

Of course, there were some other retrogression and stalling after the ones above, but aftermath was generally normal-paced.

Am I seeing what I think I'm seeing? Only time will tell!

...VB For F4 has not moved past April 2002..

[iJustMadeThis 2]

Per my understanding, Republicans are against immigrants, both legal and illegal immigrants. One of the reasons they didn't take CIR bill from Senate is that they don't want so may legal immigrants to get their green card soon. So as far as I'm concerned on this reform, I don't want any immigration bill from House to pass, b/c for sure it/they will have negative impact on us.

Yes, GOP-led House Judiciary Committee passed SKILLS Visa Act which plans to get rid of F4 immigration entirely starting this coming FY. They do want to get rid of us (other family-based ones do get some cuts, except for F2A), but while that's true, they have not addressed recapturing unused visa or backlog reduction for any immigration category (while employment-based gets some boost both in raw number and country-based cap size). If you think GOP will invalidate all the pending petitions while being pro-legal immigration (though there're many GOPers who oppose "chain migration"), you know that'll get a No from both sides of the aisle. They'll at least deal with the pending ones, then they might phase out the categories they don't want. The fact that they have not sad a word about backlog means they might let the Senate's bill do its proposed plan on backlog handling (just as some conservative GOPers worried that not having a bill addressing the undocumented ones for conference would mean letting the Senate's plan remain in place in the vacancy of House's plan).

Boehner has started reaching out to Pelosi on Democrat's support voting for the House-led bills. He knows that in order for House to have a competitive seat with the Senate, their bills need to be passed with Democrat's support (some moderate GOPers will undoubtedly oppose their side's bill [17 defectors are enough to jeopardize GOP bills], and most, if not all, Democrats are solidly against much of GOP's bills). If the bills don't pass, it means House submitting to Senate on whatever they didn't pass.

If breaking Hastert Rule and discharge petition are out of question, I think that House should pass its bills (maybe not the SKILLS Visa Act) and go to conference with Senate. That's because compromise can only occur there that'd appease to the House GOP, and do remember that their concern over interior/border security and undocumented immigrants is so much more than it is over legal immigration. If Democrats yield on those matters (while still leaving them alive and workable), legal immigration could largely defer to Senate's plan.

And if House fails to go to conference, there's possibility that Boehner'll tacitly approve discharge petition or let the Senate bill go on the floor. He, like other leadership members, wants to get this behind him, and knows better than anyone else that chance for reform will not come again for a long while unless they take it now.

Congress is expected to consider the debt ceiling sometime this fall.

The astronomical fall (Northern Hemisphere) 2013 begins on

Sunday, September 22

and ends on

Friday, December 20

I don't get it. What's your point?

...VB For F4 has not moved past April 2002..

Huh? I think you read my post wrong; I never said that. In early FY2011, PD for F4 was Jan 1st, 2002 until 2-year retrogression kicked in on February. Look at this table: http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Cut-off_Dates_worldwide_online.pdf

Edited July 19, 2013 by iJustMadeThis