ALL F4s

[jolly786 96]

What was the result of the Republicans close door meeting on Wednesday ???????????

[jolly786 96]

Republicans divided on the immigration issue by 50 - 50............The main problem in senate CIR bill that it provide citizenship to 11 millions illegals...that is the same problem of the republicans party...republican party don't want to give any citizenship and i think this is the right approach to deal with the illegals..

Guys you know other elements of the Senate CIR bill is ready to pass in the house..but the main issue which is creating problem is legalization of 11 million illegals people.........

Republicans want to secure the borders first and then start the legalization program which is knows as "RPI Status" in the Senate bill....but democrats want to legalize the illegals first and border security second........This is the main problem coming in the senate bill..but i am sure that in the coming weeks house will pass CIR bill....and president will sign it ............

[savvy.boy 13]

Republicans divided on the immigration issue by 50 - 50............The main problem in senate CIR bill that it provide citizenship to 11 millions illegals...that is the same problem of the republicans party...republican party don't want to give any citizenship and i think this is the right approach to deal with the illegals..

Guys you know other elements of the Senate CIR bill is ready to pass in the house..but the main issue which is creating problem is legalization of 11 million illegals people.........

Republicans want to secure the borders first and then start the legalization program which is knows as "RPI Status" in the Senate bill....but democrats want to legalize the illegals first and border security second........This is the main problem coming in the senate bill..but i am sure that in the coming weeks house will pass CIR bill....and president will sign it ............

I hope bill will get eliminated and die in house.

and legal immigration will move forward in the same way.

[savvy.boy 13]

[Jack20 0]

which part of the bill declares that only the applications over 5 years will be straightforward for quick processing and the rest will go throught merit based category????

thanks.

Exactly what I've been saying for a while now...nothing in the Senate CIR talks about petitions less than 5 years pending and if you read carefully those who have petitions pending or approved ine one immigration category can not apply for the merit track system.

I believe petitions that are less than 5 years old will fall into the same route as those that have been pending for over 5 years, when the petitioner has been waiting at least 5 years. Untill then we will just be sitting and waiting up to 5 years before things really start to move. This is the only explaination at this point in time I can think of otherwise why would citizens be able to petition for siblings 18 months after the bill is enacted?

Any how, this is only what I believe and not factual as no one knows this part of the process. The final bill will hopefully explain this part in a more transparent fashion.

At this stage I doubt the senate bill or any bill will be completed this year. The House is extremely slow at makiing a move on anything...they will push this out for as long as they can.

[iJustMadeThis 2]

Republicans divided on the immigration issue by 50 - 50............The main problem in senate CIR bill that it provide citizenship to 11 millions illegals...that is the same problem of the republicans party...republican party don't want to give any citizenship and i think this is the right approach to deal with the illegals..

Guys you know other elements of the Senate CIR bill is ready to pass in the house..but the main issue which is creating problem is legalization of 11 million illegals people.........

Republicans want to secure the borders first and then start the legalization program which is knows as "RPI Status" in the Senate bill....but democrats want to legalize the illegals first and border security second........This is the main problem coming in the senate bill..but i am sure that in the coming weeks house will pass CIR bill....and president will sign it ............

Honestly, I don't think the House will pass Senate's CIR bill nor any of theirs anytime soon. Let's face it: the only way the bill will ever pass the House is either 1) Speaker Boehner breaks Hastert Rule and bring the bill to the floor, which he has repeatedly said he won't, or 2) the Democrats successfully file Discharge Petition. Either is very unlikely if you just take a look at the retaliative political consequences Boehner and GOPs who side with the Democrats will face from making these choices.

As much as I'd like to see the bill pass, I want to stay realistic and not make fool out myself or anyone else by being so overly optimistic. If I am proved otherwise - I stand corrected and I will join in the festivities with you. But from what I see, as many other Democrats, GOPs, and analysts do (read the news on Google!), nothing significant (e.g. House passing an immigration bill of any sort) will happen in the House towards comprehensive immigration reform till late fall (September, after the failed farm bill is dealt with) or even early winter (after debt ceiling issue is dealt with). The House committee will amend and pass its bills in meantime, but the floor will not be able to vote till later in the year.

For those who are expected to become current soon, good luck. For the rest of us, sit tight and pray for a miracle.

Let's hope for the best but prepare for the worst. While at least being realistic.

============================================================================

Meanwhile, you guys can take a look at this table: https://www.numbersusa.com/content/files/10-Year_LPR_Numbers.pdf

The table is compiled by NumbersUSA, which is a well-known anti-immigration (including legal one) group that is against the CIR (I know, I know. But whatever). The table shows how many visas would be issued every fiscal year for ten years. According to the table, following are what would mean for us F4 beneficiaries:

Assuming that the Senate CIR passes AFTER this coming October 1st but before October 1st of 2014,

- Fiscal Year 2015 for F4 (begins Oct. 2014): 209,774 visas issued (adjusted 90,400 visas per CIR + recapture of unused visas [est. 119,374])

- Fiscal Year 2015 for Merit-based Track Two (begins Oct. 2014): 582,760 visas issued for all backlogged categories (902,760 for FY 2015 because the difference between that and 582,760 is estimated number of visas for other eligible non-citizens). 582,760 visas every year for following 7 years or so.

Before I go on, here's my two cents:

Employment-based backlog clearance is probably not reflected in Merit-based Track Two because the CIR recaptures its innumerably unused visas and exempts derivative beneficiaries from counting against the quota, which are expected to make all employment-based categories current or extremely-nearly current once FY 2015 begins.

So, let's say all 582,760 is for family-based categories.

Now, some math (exciting!)....

1) Of the current 226,000 overall family visa quota, 65,000 is reserved for F4. With CIR, the F4 quota immediately expands to 90,400 for 1.5 years until it is completely scrapped. Until Oct. 1st of 2014, though, if the bill passes this December, 25% worth of current quota (3 months; 10/1/2013 - 12/31/2013) + 75% worth of current quota (9 months; 1/1/2014 - 9/30/2014) would be combined till the following October 1st. This equals 84,050 visas for the FY 2013 ([65000*.25] + [90400*.75]) This makes the processing time 1.3 times faster throughout the FY 2014 (1.3 yr [~1 yr and 3 mts worth, from 84,050/65,000] under CIR as opposed to 1 yr under current law).

And consider that till this December, the current quota will be in effect. So by then the PD would be around November, 2001.

=> so the new PD could be around February, 2003 by the Oct 1st, 2014.

2) Assuming that the CIR passes after this Oct. 1st but before the next Oct. 1st with the statutes untouched, 119,344 additional (unused) visas for F4 will be bestowed on Oct. 1st, 2014 (this is where the number 209,774 comes from in the table, which is FY 2015 for F4, 90,400 + 119,374).

This makes PD advancement 3.23 times faster throughout the FY 2015 (~3 yrs and 4 mts worth, from 209,774/65,000).

3) Before calculating when the new PD might be by Oct. 1st of 2015, consider Merit-based Track Two: astounding 582,760 visas for FY 2015.

Effective immediately upon the enactment of CIR, F4 category gets to take 40% of 226,000 overall visas (with F2A becoming immediate), which is our good ol' 90,400. F4 is the slowest category overall in all entire family-based immigration, so it's likely that many of us would start being issued the visas earlier than anyone else (remember, this track takes in the people who've been waiting for 5+ yrs). But conservatively, let's say we get 40% of this 582,760 visas, which is 223,104 visas. This makes processing 3.6 times faster throughout the FY 2015 (~3 yrs and 7 mts worth, from 223,104/65,000).

Now add 3.23 and 3.7, which is roughly 7 years. According to this calculation, new PD for F4 would be January 2010 by the Oct 1st, 2015.

But that makes no sense. We just had first year of backlog-clearance and we advanced by 7 years. Obviously this whole calculation assumed that it takes 65,00 visas to move one year in PD which isn't true. In fact, it often takes many more than that because of the factors such as beneficiaries taking a number of dependents with them, which count against the quota. We can then "gracefully " halve to third this number calculated thus far (1 beneficiary and various combination of 1 spouse and 1 child, let's say?). It'd still move by about 2.3-3.5 additional years for FY 2015.

So, realistically, the new PD could be anywhere between mid-2005 to mid-2006 by Oct. 1st of 2015. This obviously makes more sense.

Big problems, however: I've not taken account of non-ROW categories such as Filipinos, Chinese, Mexicans, and Indians. These people are likely to get the visas faster because the Merit-based Track Two (which ignores country-based cap, I believe) gives visas to those who've been waiting longer (making ROW advance slower than this calculation might project), but that is totally acceptable and earlier they get the green cards, earlier the rest of us get them, too. I also did not take account of the remaining 6 months worth of CIR-based F4 category that'd remain after FY 2014, so that'd probably help us, if at all.

And of course, NumbersUSA could have made the numbers larger than they should for the purpose of propaganda, but I did some calculations and table-searching myself, and would like to argue that the table seems legitimate. But whatever. Their numbers seem to make sense to me with the researches I've done myself. I'd say we give them credit on this.

I hope my calculation cleared some level of curiosity for some of you if any of you guys were wondering. Note that the calculation is my own and I'm not professional, so it can be WAY off (one way or the other). But I do hope that, at the end of it all, we see the light at the end of the tunnel.

[iJustMadeThis 2]

I hope bill will get eliminated and die in house.

and legal immigration will move forward in the same way.

Excuse me, but how selfish of you. Why would you want that?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but just because your PD is soon to be current doesn't mean the rest of us need to suffer waiting decades to be reunited with our families. You've been in the same boat with us thus far, why make it as if we deserve the same pain if not more of what you've gone through? We clearly have a broken immigration system and it needs to be fixed once and for all in every way.

For your own sake, please get rid of that drawbridge mentality of yours; it really speaks of your character. And frankly, if you'd pardon my French, it really pisses me off.

Edited July 11, 2013 by iJustMadeThis

[savvy.boy 13]

Excuse me, but how selfish of you. Why would you want that?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but just because your PD is soon to be current doesn't mean the rest of us need to suffer waiting decades to be reunited with our families. You've been in the same boat with us thus far, why make it as if we deserve the same pain if not more of what you've gone through? We clearly have a broken immigration system and it needs to be fixed once and for all in every way.

For your own sake, please get rid of that drawbridge mentality of yours; it really speaks of your character. And frankly, if you'd pardon my French, it really pisses me off.

Dear Friend , I am not selfish , I care about everyone.

if this bill would die , legal immigration will move in the same way.

No merit based track 1 or 2.

F4 will not be eliminated.

waiting decades and waiting for turn is better than getting eliminated.

you took me wrong.

Now I hope you understand my point of view.

[savvy.boy 13]

My case is F4.

do we have to fill DS-260 form online.

is it mandatory in our case . our case is completed ds-230 submitted.

and I am not able to find my NVC Invoice ID Number

[iJustMadeThis 2]

Dear Friend , I am not selfish , I care about everyone.

if this bill would die , legal immigration will move in the same way.

No merit based track 1 or 2.

F4 will not be eliminated.

waiting decades and waiting for turn is better than getting eliminated.

you took me wrong.

Now I hope you understand my point of view.

Yes, the legal immigration would move in the same way, but as for F4 and other prospective immigrants, they need to wait as long as 24 years before joining their families. That's just unfair; time is wasted (per se) that could otherwise be spent to adjust to life in America. That's just wrong (might as well tell them to die so the government won't have to deal with them). You do understand that every single person in 4.5 million-backlog legal immigration line will be given the opportunity to finally adjust their status in 7 years once the bill becomes law; I think that that's hell of a better deal than forcing everyone to wait twice to triple that amount of time.

Transition to modernized immigration system is inevitable; as the rest of the world already has, US Congress wants to move onto merit-based immigration and abandon the restrictive family- and employment-based systems. While maintaining or improving the non-F4 categories for the most part (e.g. F2A made immediate), Senate did also understand the concerns for F3 and F4. So the Senate added provision in the current CIR bill that awards 10 points to prospective immigrants (in Merit-based Track 1) who have relatives (incl. siblings) in the US, which is equivalent to having a PhD degree or twice the worth a degree in MA/MS would offer. I think that's pretty darn generous and a right movement to appease to the House conservatives.

Of course, CAPAC will voice concerns on this matter when the House brings the bill to the floor, insisting that all family categories remain intact. But as we all know, it's likely that it will be squandered, and even the Democrats will try to shut them down for the sake of CIR bill as a whole.

While I do understand your point of view, I would like to again stress that, in my opinion, getting CIR passed is a much, much better alternative to doing nothing and hurting those separated ten thousand miles apart across the world.

[Visa Grant 78]

Honestly, I don't think the House will pass Senate's CIR bill nor any of theirs anytime soon. Let's face it: the only way the bill will ever pass the House is either 1) Speaker Boehner breaks Hastert Rule and bring the bill to the floor, which he has repeatedly said he won't, or 2) the Democrats successfully file Discharge Petition. Either is very unlikely if you just take a look at the retaliative political consequences Boehner and GOPs who side with the Democrats will face from making these choices.

As much as I'd like to see the bill pass, I want to stay realistic and not make fool out myself or anyone else by being so overly optimistic. If I am proved otherwise - I stand corrected and I will join in the festivities with you. But from what I see, as many other Democrats, GOPs, and analysts do (read the news on Google!), nothing significant (e.g. House passing an immigration bill of any sort) will happen in the House towards comprehensive immigration reform till late fall (September, after the failed farm bill is dealt with) or even early winter (after debt ceiling issue is dealt with). The House committee will amend and pass its bills in meantime, but the floor will not be able to vote till later in the year.

For those who are expected to become current soon, good luck. For the rest of us, sit tight and pray for a miracle.

Let's hope for the best but prepare for the worst. While at least being realistic.

============================================================================

Meanwhile, you guys can take a look at this table: https://www.numbersusa.com/content/files/10-Year_LPR_Numbers.pdf

The table is compiled by NumbersUSA, which is a well-known anti-immigration (including legal one) group that is against the CIR (I know, I know. But whatever). The table shows how many visas would be issued every fiscal year for ten years. According to the table, following are what would mean for us F4 beneficiaries:

Assuming that the Senate CIR passes AFTER this coming October 1st but before October 1st of 2014,

- Fiscal Year 2015 for F4 (begins Oct. 2014): 209,774 visas issued (adjusted 90,400 visas per CIR + recapture of unused visas [est. 119,374])

- Fiscal Year 2015 for Merit-based Track Two (begins Oct. 2014): 582,760 visas issued for all backlogged categories (902,760 for FY 2015 because the difference between that and 582,760 is estimated number of visas for other eligible non-citizens). 582,760 visas every year for following 7 years or so.

Before I go on, here's my two cents:

Employment-based backlog clearance is probably not reflected in Merit-based Track Two because the CIR recaptures its innumerably unused visas and exempts derivative beneficiaries from counting against the quota, which are expected to make all employment-based categories current or extremely-nearly current once FY 2015 begins.

So, let's say all 582,760 is for family-based categories.

Now, some math (exciting!)....

1) Of the current 226,000 overall family visa quota, 65,000 is reserved for F4. With CIR, the F4 quota immediately expands to 90,400 for 1.5 years until it is completely scrapped. Until Oct. 1st of 2014, though, if the bill passes this December, 25% worth of current quota (3 months; 10/1/2013 - 12/31/2013) + 75% worth of current quota (9 months; 1/1/2014 - 9/30/2014) would be combined till the following October 1st. This equals 84,050 visas for the FY 2013 ([65000*.25] + [90400*.75]) This makes the processing time 1.3 times faster throughout the FY 2014 (1.3 yr [~1 yr and 3 mts worth, from 84,050/65,000] under CIR as opposed to 1 yr under current law).

And consider that till this December, the current quota will be in effect. So by then the PD would be around November, 2001.

=> so the new PD could be around February, 2003 by the Oct 1st, 2014.

2) Assuming that the CIR passes after this Oct. 1st but before the next Oct. 1st with the statutes untouched, 119,344 additional (unused) visas for F4 will be bestowed on Oct. 1st, 2014 (this is where the number 209,774 comes from in the table, which is FY 2015 for F4, 90,400 + 119,374).

This makes PD advancement 3.23 times faster throughout the FY 2015 (~3 yrs and 4 mts worth, from 209,774/65,000).

3) Before calculating when the new PD might be by Oct. 1st of 2015, consider Merit-based Track Two: astounding 582,760 visas for FY 2015.

Effective immediately upon the enactment of CIR, F4 category gets to take 40% of 226,000 overall visas (with F2A becoming immediate), which is our good ol' 90,400. F4 is the slowest category overall in all entire family-based immigration, so it's likely that many of us would start being issued the visas earlier than anyone else (remember, this track takes in the people who've been waiting for 5+ yrs). But conservatively, let's say we get 40% of this 582,760 visas, which is 223,104 visas. This makes processing 3.6 times faster throughout the FY 2015 (~3 yrs and 7 mts worth, from 223,104/65,000).

Now add 3.23 and 3.7, which is roughly 7 years. According to this calculation, new PD for F4 would be January 2010 by the Oct 1st, 2015.

But that makes no sense. We just had first year of backlog-clearance and we advanced by 7 years. Obviously this whole calculation assumed that it takes 65,00 visas to move one year in PD which isn't true. In fact, it often takes many more than that because of the factors such as beneficiaries taking a number of dependents with them, which count against the quota. We can then "gracefully " halve to third this number calculated thus far (1 beneficiary and various combination of 1 spouse and 1 child, let's say?). It'd still move by about 2.3-3.5 additional years for FY 2015.

So, realistically, the new PD could be anywhere between mid-2005 to mid-2006 by Oct. 1st of 2015. This obviously makes more sense.

Big problems, however: I've not taken account of non-ROW categories such as Filipinos, Chinese, Mexicans, and Indians. These people are likely to get the visas faster because the Merit-based Track Two (which ignores country-based cap, I believe) gives visas to those who've been waiting longer (making ROW advance slower than this calculation might project), but that is totally acceptable and earlier they get the green cards, earlier the rest of us get them, too. I also did not take account of the remaining 6 months worth of CIR-based F4 category that'd remain after FY 2014, so that'd probably help us, if at all.

And of course, NumbersUSA could have made the numbers larger than they should for the purpose of propaganda, but I did some calculations and table-searching myself, and would like to argue that the table seems legitimate. But whatever. Their numbers seem to make sense to me with the researches I've done myself. I'd say we give them credit on this.

I hope my calculation cleared some level of curiosity for some of you if any of you guys were wondering. Note that the calculation is my own and I'm not professional, so it can be WAY off (one way or the other). But I do hope that, at the end of it all, we see the light at the end of the tunnel.

Calculations and Implications are really good..The question still remains whatther Senate CIR passes..?

In work permit visas, congress has come up with the thought of not counting the derivatives/beneficiary as part of the visa numbers allocation...so...." new PD for F4 would be January 2010 by the Oct 1st, 2015.." will also make sense..

Good Luck..

Seeing your Math Calculation & Analysis..I wonder if you have made that as part of your life..

[Visa Grant 78]

.................. I would like to again stress that, in my opinion, getting CIR passed is a much, much better alternative to doing nothing and hurting those separated ten thousand miles apart across the world.

I agree with you Simon....But how good is the present broken immigration system...Waiting for 17 to 24 years...The prime time of a human life is wasted in waiting..

Good Luck..

[PakiBoyz.Maliks 1]

Hi jolly, savvyboy,visagrant, pak 2002,ijustmadethis(your calculations were awesome)

I need help. My PD is March 2002. I have been waiting since retrogression for my PD to be current.

Now PD for F4 is 22 june 2001. For two next bulletins prediction for F4 is 3 to 5 weeks.

what do u think PD will remainin moving 3 to 5 weeks for next 6 to 7 months???

can anyone provide me any explanation regarding future PD movement.?

Any response will be highly appreciated.

I AM WAITING!!!

[jolly786 96]

Upcoming visa bulletins without CIR for F4 in the coming months :-

September 2013 :- 22july,2001.

October 2013 :- 1 September,2001

November 2013 :- 8 October,2001

December 2013 :- 15 November,2001

January 2014 :- 8 January,2002

February 2014 :- 1May,2002

[PakiBoyz.Maliks 1]

I AM ASKING IF BILL IS NOT ACCEPTED OR ENTACTED...