Obama’s Clean Energy: a Dangerous Dependence on China

[mawilson 2,133]

Mawlison demonstrates, again, that he doesn't know what he talks about. He is under the delusion that lithium is a rare earth mineral.

Not me, the author:

There will be no batteries coming off its production line once it gets going – unless there are supplies of lithium and other rare earth minerals (REMs) from which they can be made.

[mawilson 2,133]

Anyhow, the fact that 95% (or even 97%, although that's a bogus number) of the world's rare earth elements is sourced from China doesn't mean that China is the only remaining source of these elements.

[mendeleev 68]

Anyhow, the fact that 95% (or even 97%, although that's a bogus number) of the world's rare earth elements is sourced from China doesn't mean that China is the only remaining source of these elements.

Mawlison, you were precisely the ignorant individual who could not distinguish the difference between lithium and rare earth elements. You need to read more carefully before you say such stupid things.

As I've tried to teach subsequently in this thread, US capitalists have ceded this market to the Chinese by shutting down mines and refineries that were profitable, since they sought to improve their profit margins elsewhere in the face of foreign competition rather than stand and fight.

You are correct, though, that the current state of affairs where the Chinese own the rare earth markets is not a state of nature -- it is a failure of American capitalists.

Edited July 16, 2010 by novotul

[mawilson 2,133]

Mawlison, you were precisely the ignorant individual who could not distinguish the difference between lithium and rare earth elements. You need to read more carefully before you say such stupid things.

Again, the author claimed that "there will be no batteries coming off its production line – unless there are supplies of lithium and other rare earth minerals (REMs) from which they can be made" and then quoted bogus stats. I didn't claim that lithium was a rare metal, the author did.

As for my supposed "ignorance", you know nothing about me or my background, so maybe you should try to understand what I said before you start shooting your mouth off about me like a total #######.

[mawilson 2,133]

You are correct, though, that the current state of affairs where the Chinese own the rare earth markets is not a state of nature -- it is a failure of American capitalists.

Indeed - a failure that will be corrected when the available supply grows scarce.

[mendeleev 68]

Indeed - a failure that will be corrected when the available supply grows scarce.

Mawlison, you remain convicted of the ignorance you displayed in agreeing that lithium is a rare earth. That you cannot abide with the consequences of seeing your ignorance exposed and resort to name calling -- it is about what I expect from you.

And as I pointed out previously in this thread, it appears that the mine formerly owned by Unocal may reopen soon. I expect additional rare earth mines and refineries throughout the world will open later -- and the closing of the Unocal mine, previously the largest rare earth mine in the world, remains a failure of American capitalism.

[alienlovechild 75]

As I remember, Reagan made a deal with the Iranians to get the hostages relaesed as soon as he became President (the real October Surprise) and he paid them back with Iran-Contra. It was a cool pair of deals for Reagan, first arranging to be paid by Iranian fundamentalists and then repaying the debt while doing dirty deal on Democrats in Congress who labored under the naive opinion that the US was a nation under law.

Alien, maybe you are too young to have seen the events unfold -- some of us have the benefit of memory.

Nope, the October Surprise was an idea Gary Sick came up in the Carter White House but never could prove. Carter unfroze Iranian assets in return the hostages.

The hostages were in Lebanon not Iran so you're got all of your hostages mixed up. It had nothing to with American hostages in the U.S. embassy in Iran. Like I said you're more than a little confused but you got Contra side of the deal.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Contra_affair

Some us were the prime age for the draft (should it a wartime situation) back then so we remember netter than than the old timers like yourself.

Edited July 16, 2010 by alienlovechild

[mendeleev 68]

the People’s Republic of China, the source of 97% of the world’s rare earth minerals,

97%? What a bunch of #######.

Just to be clear, Mawlison, I've reproduced as best I can your ignorant statement. Live with it. Lithium isn't a rare earth. I don't expect any scientific expertise from you, just as you've demonstrated I shouldn't expect any economic expertise.

[mendeleev 68]

Nope, the October Surprise was an idea Gary Sick came up in the Carter White House but never could prove. Carter unfroze Iranian assets in return the hostages.

The hostages were in Lebanon not Iran so you're got all of your hostages mixed up. It had nothing to with American hostages in the U.S. embassy in Iran. Like I said you're more than a little confused but you got Contra side of the deal.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Contra_affair

Some us were the prime age for the draft (should it a wartime situation) back then so we remember netter than than the old timers like yourself.

This is interesting history. I remember Iranians taking as hostages people in the US embassy in Tehran and holding them hostage for over 400 days in the Carter adminstration. The were released on the day Reagan was inaugurated. It came out later that Reagan's team, afraid Carter would succeed in negotiation their release in October, 1980, negotiated on their own behalf to make sure the hostages stayed put until Reagan was safely elected. It was a really, really slick political trick. And put Reagan in debt to the Iranians.

It would appear Reagan paid the Iranians back with money at the time of Iran-Contra, a few years later. And that was slick, too.

So, we would both of us been of draftable age had the draft, or even registration for the draft, have been in effect. But, Alien, surely you remember that in the 70s there wasn't even registration for the draft after the early part of the decade, if in fact you were of age to worry about such things then!

[alienlovechild 75]

It came out later that Reagan's team, afraid Carter would succeed in negotiation their release in October, 1980, negotiated on their own behalf to make sure the hostages stayed put until Reagan was safely elected. It was a really, really slick political trick. And put Reagan in debt to the Iranians.

So, we would both of us been of draftable age had the draft, or even registration for the draft, have been in effect. But, Alien, surely you remember that in the 70s there wasn't even registration for the draft after the early part of the decade, if in fact you were of age to worry about such things then!

The Iranians wanted to humiliate Carter as part of their revolutionary government (same one as now) but it was to show the U.S. could nothing about controlling events in Iran. The Iranians weren't interested in picking political parties in the U.S. but had more to fear from a Reagan who might go nuts and start bombing Iran. Reagan wasn't "in debt" to the Iranians and supplied intelligence and diplomatic support to Iraq during the Iran-Iraq War so your theory doesn't hold water. They sold overpriced Hawk missiles because they thought it really won't do much to change the course of the war but keeping the Contras paid was deemed more important at the time.

Draft registration was resumed in 1980 and I turned 18 in 1982. Not sure why you're referring to the early 70s as the events I'm talking about were nearly a decade later.

"The registration requirement was suspended in April 1975. It was resumed again in 1980 by President Carter in response to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Registration continues today as a hedge against underestimating the number of servicemen needed in a future crisis"

http://usmilitary.about.com/od/deploymentsconflicts/l/bldrafthistory.htm

[lostinblue 1,989]

http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/4241/the-battle-over-rare-earth-metals-4241.html

In 2002 the United States' most important rare earth mine, operated by Molycorp in Mountain Pass, California was shut down. This was due, at least in part, to Chinese predatory pricing. Rare earths from China's Bayanobo region were shipped to California and sold for less than the cost of producing the same rare earths at Mountain Pass, even with a 5% duty assessed against the imports.

It was unknown then, as it is now, whether Chinese mining companies were "dumping" their product, i.e., selling it for less than the cost of production.

Certainly today it is obvious that if China had capitalized its environmental liabilities and the true costs of its mining operations in their own country, production costs may not have been competitive with Molycorp's production costs.

However, lowball pricing had its effect. Molycorp ceased mining its immense, high grade California deposits of the light rare earths (with lower atomic numbers), and South African mining operations also abandoned their supply space to the Chinese.

This happened even though the resources and reserves available and accessible to modern clean mining operations outside China were (and still are) loaded with immense verifiable quantities of high grade ores.

Mountain Pass was, as early as 1984, the largest rare earth mine in the world; it produced then fully one-third of all of the global supply of rare earths and 100% of the US demand for them. Mountain Pass has proven reserves of more than 30,000,000 tons of ore when measured using a lower cut-off grade of 7.6%.

Much of the ore is at 9.5%, which means that at today's American demand of 20,000 metric tons a year, Mountain Pass could provide "light" rare earths, lanthanum through samarium, in sufficient quantities to supply current demand for 150 years. If this mine were operating and its output were merged with other known US deposits containing "heavy rare earths," such as dysprosium, terbium, and europium, in commercial quantities, then America would be self-sufficient in rare earths.

It is important to note rare earth supply security may now be on an even keel with rapid return on investment as a driver for developing American domestic rare earth resources. Market forces are the preferred avenue to bringing US production of rare earth resources back online, but the issue is so vital to the US manufacturing sector and to US national security interests that Congress should address the it a priority.

For the rest of the world, the problem is that the rare earths which the Chinese deem so important to their technological and green future are already critical for maintaining the West's technological and green present, let alone a future of green growth and sustainable production.

For example, China has announced that over the life of the next two five-year plans, 2010-2020, it will construct some 133 gigawatts of wind turbine generated electricity. This is likely to dramatically impact the supply of the rare earth metal neodymium. (it could take up to half a ton of neodymium to make a permanent magnet for a very large wind turbine)

If China chooses to go with the wind turbine generator design that uses a rare earth permanent magnet based on neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium, (the last two of which are among the rarest of the rare earth metals) then this will require that China increase its current production levels in order to meet additional demand. The alternative is that China substantially reduce its exports of the required metals under the terms of present production levels. Modern, smaller, high performance and high efficiency electric motors and generators are also increasingly dependent on the unique properties of these metals.

The interruption of the supply of these metals to non-Chinese manufacturers and end users would upset both the civilian and military markets in the West. A shortage would surely mean that, first of all, the West would have to choose between "guns and butter."

Secondly, it would mean that technological advancements would stagnate or stop altogether in alternative energy production and uses where these metals are critical.

This is a direct challenge to the West's march toward a greener future.

In 2002 the United States' most important rare earth mine, operated by Molycorp in Mountain Pass, California was shut down. This was due, at least in part, to Chinese predatory pricing. Rare earths from China's Bayanobo region were shipped to California and sold for less than the cost of producing the same rare earths at Mountain Pass, even with a 5% duty assessed against the imports.

It was unknown then, as it is now, whether Chinese mining companies were "dumping" their product, i.e., selling it for less than the cost of production.

Certainly today it is obvious that if China had capitalized its environmental liabilities and the true costs of its mining operations in their own country, production costs may not have been competitive with Molycorp's production costs.

However, lowball pricing had its effect. Molycorp ceased mining its immense, high grade California deposits of the light rare earths (with lower atomic numbers), and South African mining operations also abandoned their supply space to the Chinese.

This happened even though the resources and reserves available and accessible to modern clean mining operations outside China were (and still are) loaded with immense verifiable quantities of high grade ores.

Mountain Pass was, as early as 1984, the largest rare earth mine in the world; it produced then fully one-third of all of the global supply of rare earths and 100% of the US demand for them. Mountain Pass has proven reserves of more than 30,000,000 tons of ore when measured using a lower cut-off grade of 7.6%.

Much of the ore is at 9.5%, which means that at today's American demand of 20,000 metric tons a year, Mountain Pass could provide "light" rare earths, lanthanum through samarium, in sufficient quantities to supply current demand for 150 years. If this mine were operating and its output were merged with other known US deposits containing "heavy rare earths," such as dysprosium, terbium, and europium, in commercial quantities, then America would be self-sufficient in rare earths.

It is important to note rare earth supply security may now be on an even keel with rapid return on investment as a driver for developing American domestic rare earth resources. Market forces are the preferred avenue to bringing US production of rare earth resources back online, but the issue is so vital to the US manufacturing sector and to US national security interests that Congress should address the it a priority.

Indeed these observations catalyzed the proposed the Rare Earths Supply-Chain Technology and Resources Transformation Act of 2009 (RESTART Act) referenced earlier.

China's gradual reduction of its export of raw ores and ore concentrates has forced the rare earth refining, separating, metal and alloy production industries to move to China. Therefore investment in China and the employment of Chinese laborers and engineers is the surest way for a foreign company to assure a supply allocation of rare earths for its own end-use.

The West has now been essentially denuded or contrarily has denuded itself of almost all its rare earth mine-to-market supply and value chains. Only some of the final assembly of permanent magnet using devices such as DC electric motors and electric generators for civilian use remain anywhere outside of China today.

The US military and the allies it equips require that the final manufacture and assembly of all munitions or guidance devices and components be within the US or in an allied country such as the UK. Even so, rare earth metals – from which military components such as permanent magnet electric motors and generators, lasers, and infrared and sonar sensors are constructed all or in part – are exclusively imported from China and then alloyed and fabricated in the US or in another allied military contractor's country.

This is an incredible and truly inconvenient truth. It should also be noted that Canada also has large and high grade deposits under development.

It is important to realize that the situation regarding the supply security of rare earth supply elements has been fundamentally driven by China's growing domestic demand. Western industry, both civilian and military, could be cut off with little or no notice from these elements at a time when there is no alternative supplier of these elements from someplace other than China.

Western free-market mining, banking and institutional investors have to use this current reality to reassess factors such as the availability of strategic or critical rare metals, and the valuation of the entire supply chain to political and economic advantage. US policy makers should consider all options, including government incentives if necessary, to return US supply back to the point that it can satisfy at least US national defence requirements.

The US Department of Interior must now, through the Bureau of Land Management (which supervises mining claims) and its subsidiary the US Geological Survey, (which monitors the market and end use of natural resources) step forward.

It needs to identify and measure US domestic reserves of rare metals which are strategic and critical for America's industrial and military needs. These steps should be administratively codified by the Departments of Defense and Commerce and be used to catalyze the sourcing of these resources in the most beneficial way for the US economy.

To be clear, the security of the US supply chain for rare earths, and their availability, must be the focus of whatever actions are undertaken.

Also equal to supply concerns regarding rare earths is the fact that even if tomorrow the US would restart the mining of heavy rare earths it lacks the capacity to refine these elements. Thus, should the United States begin to mine its heavy rare earth oxides, it would still be dependent on overseas refineries for further elemental and alloy processing.

Transportation alternatives such as electric cars, electricity generating technologies such as wind turbines, communications' technologies, such as iPhones, and even medical equipment such as X-ray machines and MRI machines all require rare earths for their manufacture.

Getting onto the green road is not the same as staying on it.

[mawilson 2,133]

Just to be clear, Mawlison, I've reproduced as best I can your ignorant statement. Live with it. Lithium isn't a rare earth. I don't expect any scientific expertise from you, just as you've demonstrated I shouldn't expect any economic expertise.

Isn't that exactly what my table shows?

Why would I think that lithium was an REM and then in the same breath post a table that proved it wasn't?

You're certified nuts, my friend

Edited July 16, 2010 by mawilson

[BobandXiaomei 14]

Isn't that exactly what my table shows?

Why would I think that lithium was an REM and then in the same breath post a table that proved it wasn't?

You're certified nuts, my friend

Ok. I'll throw gasoline on the fire by referencing Wikipedia. It's open source so feel free to add Lithium to it. Perhaps you were thinking of Lutetium?

Rare Earth elements

[mawilson 2,133]

Ok. I'll throw gasoline on the fire by referencing Wikipedia. It's open source so feel free to add Lithium to it. Perhaps you were thinking of Lutetium?

Rare Earth elements

Feel free to direct your criticism towards the original author who lumped lithium in with the rare elements.

[Krikit 1,164]

Please stop the personal insults or this thread will be closed. Thank you.