7.9 million jobs lost, many forever

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

The recession killed off 7.9 million jobs. It's increasingly likely that many will never come back.

The government jobs report issued Friday shows that businesses have slowed their pace of hiring to a relative trickle.

"The job losses during the Great Recession were so off the chart, that even though we've gained about 600,000 private sector jobs back, we've got nearly 8 million jobs to go," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of Economic Cycle Research Institute.

Excluding temporary Census workers, the economy has added fewer than 100,000 jobs a month this year -- a much faster and stronger jobs recovery than occurred following the last two recessions in 2001 and 1991.

But even if that pace of hiring were to double immediately, it would take until 2013 to recapture the lost jobs. And the labor market very likely doesn't have years before it gets hit with the shock of the inevitable next economic downturn.

"It's virtually certain that the next recession will come before the job market has healed from the last recession," said Achuthan.

More frequent recessions: Despite signs of slowing economic growth, Achuthan is not predicting that the U.S. economy is about to fall into another downturn later this year.

But a combination of a slower growth and greater volatility is a prescription for as many as three recessions over the upcoming decade, he said.

"We've entered a era where the United States will see more frequent recessions than anyone is used to," Achuthan said.

One of the big problems is that many of workers who have lost jobs were in industries that are not likely to recover their former strength.

"We've got the wrong people in the wrong place with the wrong skills," said John Silvia, chief economist with Wells Fargo Securities. He said construction workers in California or Florida and auto workers in Michigan will have to relocate and retrain to find new jobs.

"As many as half the people who lost their jobs will have to find something else to do," said Silvia.

Home building lost nearly 1 million jobs since the start of 2008, while the auto industry shed 300,000 manufacturing jobs due to plant closings. The finance and real estate sectors lost more than 500,000 jobs.

"Those are the areas with the biggest bubbles, and so it's not a surprise that those are the areas with some of the biggest job losses," said Scot Melland, CEO of Dice Holdings, a provider of specialized career web sites. "Many of the jobs we lost are never coming back."

More new workers: And recapturing the lost jobs fixes only part of the problem.

The nation's working-age population grows by about 150,000 people a month. So the hole is deeper than it looks.

It would take the creation of 10.6 million jobs immediately for the same percentage of the population to be working as was the case three years ago.

Of course, it will take time to create jobs. If it takes three years, more than 3.5 million additional jobs will be needed because of continued population growth.

The unemployment rate is currently 9.5%. A return to the 4.4% rate it was the summer before the recession started in 2007 is out of reach.

In fact, the Federal Reserve, in its latest forecast, predicts that unemployment will stay around 7% or above through 2012, and in the 5% to 5.3% range in the long-run.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/79-million-jobs-lost-many-cnnm-1248019835.html?x=0

[IndigoSkies 168]

Some jobs are meant to disappear and never return. We don't need someone to protect travelling judge. We have circuit courts. You get the point. Judges don't travel to hear casese.

[DEDixon 39]

i wonder if we have automated too much?

[IndigoSkies 168]

i wonder if we have automated too much?

Watched a show called Vanguard last night, about suger cane workers in Brasil. What 80 people do in a day of 8 hours shift day, one machine does that in total of 24 hours. And only one person is required to operate these romatic machines. These 80 peoples still have their jobs. But for how long?

[ScottThuy 140]

how much does the workforce grow each month? is 100.000 new jobs enough to offset the growth in workforce?

[Usui Takumi 1,562]

how much does the workforce grow each month? is 100.000 new jobs enough to offset the growth in workforce?

No, my understanding is that the economy needs to produce something like 250,000 to break even and more than 300,000 to start making a dent. The US WILL have a lost generation. Those students who graduated in 07,08,09,10,11 have little chance to break into a career the "normal" way.

Edited July 5, 2010 by Sousuke

[peejay 327]

No, my understanding is that the economy needs to produce something like 250,000 to break even and more than 300,000 to start making a dent. The US WILL have a lost generation. Those students who graduated in 07,08,09,10,11 have little chance to break into a career the "normal" way.

Yet the USA allows millions to immigrate legally and illegally every year without any regard to what the unemployment rate is or the impact on its citizens. What other developed country in the world would do something so stupid? What other country's citizens would put up with such stupidity forced on them through our government? We have millions unemployed and underemployed, but immigration policy remains the same. Ridiculous!

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

Somebody said just the other day, we need to change the H visa program to allow even more unskilled laborers in the country. In the Filipino community here in California, they have a saying, "You got a PhD? You can pick apples."

[ready4ONE 5,400]

Yet the USA allows millions to immigrate legally and illegally every year without any regard to what the unemployment rate is or the impact on its citizens. What other developed country in the world would do something so stupid? What other country's citizens would put up with such stupidity forced on them through our government? We have millions unemployed and underemployed, but immigration policy remains the same. Ridiculous!

Didn't stop you from bringing your spouse...

[evli1966 88]

Didn't stop you from bringing your spouse...

Please do not misunderstand I am not advocating that legal immigration come to a halt.

But I would hope anyone bringing a spouse here would already be able to support that person with out that person having to work.

If not then maybe people should rethink what they are doing; at least in todays economy.

I understand money and what not and economy doesn't fit into the mold of a relationship but in order for a healthy relationship to work there must be a financial supprt mechanism in place to start.

I hope I said that in the right way.

[DEDixon 39]

Watched a show called Vanguard last night, about suger cane workers in Brasil. What 80 people do in a day of 8 hours shift day, one machine does that in total of 24 hours. And only one person is required to operate these romatic machines. These 80 peoples still have their jobs. But for how long?

i heard on NPR recently that the world's population will double in the next few decades (sorry, i forget how many decades). with computers and machines taking jobs away, where will all these people work?

i often think someday the machines will cost more than people. i can imagine 2000 people digging a tunnel instead of a few machines but what i can't imagine is their pay. it seems the more people we have on earth, the lower the pay will be and so their purchasing power is lower and so maybe mass deflation is in the world's future. i don't study population trends, but just off the top of my head, i do wonder what, with automation, will all the people do in the future.

[spookyturtle 9,466]

Next thing you know there won't be any blow jobs.

[Ban Hammer 13,349]

Next thing you know there won't be any blow jobs.

[peejay 327]

Didn't stop you from bringing your spouse...

American citizens have always been able to bring our own spouses to our own country. Even before the ill conceived 1965 immigration legislation that opened the floodgates to mostly family based chain migration. An outdated policy that should be shelved in the 21st century world America has arrived in.

[Usui Takumi 1,562]

i heard on NPR recently that the world's population will double in the next few decades (sorry, i forget how many decades). with computers and machines taking jobs away, where will all these people work?

i often think someday the machines will cost more than people. i can imagine 2000 people digging a tunnel instead of a few machines but what i can't imagine is their pay. it seems the more people we have on earth, the lower the pay will be and so their purchasing power is lower and so maybe mass deflation is in the world's future. i don't study population trends, but just off the top of my head, i do wonder what, with automation, will all the people do in the future.

Not going to happen. We've already missed the curve for alternative fuels. Oil production will likely start declining in just a few years while demand will continue to increase. All it takes is something like a 5% shortfall to shut down major economies. Enjoy life as we know it while you can, we will all be in the dark by 2015.