David Freedman, 'Wrong' Author, on Why to Not Trust Experts

[DEDixon 39]

To read the factoids David Freedman rattles off in his book Wrong is terrifying. He begins by writing that about two-thirds of the findings published in the top medical journals are refuted within a few years. It gets worse. As much as 90 percent of physicians' medical knowledge has been found to be substantially or completely wrong. In fact, there is a one in 12 chance that a doctor's diagnosis will be so wrong that it causes the patient significant harm. And it's not just medicine. Economists have found that all studies published in economics journals are likely to be wrong. Professionally prepared tax returns are more likely to contain significant errors than self-prepared returns. Half of all newspaper articles contain at least one factual error. So why then do we blindly follow experts? Freedman has an idea, which he writes about it in his book Wrong: Why Experts Keep Failing Us - and How to Know When Not to Trust Them. Freedman talked to TIME about why we believe experts, how to find good advice and why we should trust him - even though he's kind of an expert. (See the top 10 everything of 2009.)

the rest of this: http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/20100629/hl_time/08599199864400

No offense Steve, it is just that with all the "green" stuff you post from experts, this seems to affect you the most on here.

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

No offense Steve, it is just that with all the "green" stuff you post from experts, this seems to affect you the most on here.

[one...two...tree 2,762]

To read the factoids David Freedman rattles off in his book Wrong is terrifying. He begins by writing that about two-thirds of the findings published in the top medical journals are refuted within a few years. It gets worse. As much as 90 percent of physicians' medical knowledge has been found to be substantially or completely wrong. In fact, there is a one in 12 chance that a doctor's diagnosis will be so wrong that it causes the patient significant harm. And it's not just medicine. Economists have found that all studies published in economics journals are likely to be wrong. Professionally prepared tax returns are more likely to contain significant errors than self-prepared returns. Half of all newspaper articles contain at least one factual error. So why then do we blindly follow experts? Freedman has an idea, which he writes about it in his book Wrong: Why Experts Keep Failing Us - and How to Know When Not to Trust Them. Freedman talked to TIME about why we believe experts, how to find good advice and why we should trust him - even though he's kind of an expert. (See the top 10 everything of 2009.)

the rest of this: http://news.yahoo.co.../08599199864400

No offense Steve, it is just that with all the "green" stuff you post from experts, this seems to affect you the most on here.

I'd like to see the source for those claims (in bold). How ironic.

[DEDixon 39]

On the red part.

You say that many experts are wrong, yet you quote many experts in your book. Are these experts wrong too?

They very well may be, but these are people who study expertise. They know how other experts go wrong because this is what they study, so maybe they're better at avoiding some of these problems. Maybe they're a little more careful with their data and they work a little harder to not mislead people. That's just a suggestion. I mean, who knows? But that's the best I can do to defend myself here.

in the book, he probably tells of his sources.

follow the link, it has you all over it. i have a friend that believes everything he reads too, well, everything he is in favor of so don't feel bad.

[Trumplestiltskin 5,791]

It's one thing to not believe everything you read, it's another to believe nothing that's written because of some arbitrary claim that it's more likely than not to be wrong.

As far as VJ goes, all it does is give ignorant people a pass for throwing things out offhand.

Whether a doctor, scientist or what have you is right or wrong - the odds are that they are more knowledgable about a given subject than some bum on a message board.

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

As a personal note, when you are talking to a doctor, lawyer, or auto mechanic, do a little research before hand. Doctors, for example, are often wrong, as I have found out through experience. Part of it has to do with how little time the physician has to spend on individual patients, and part of it has to do with how little time the physician actually devotes to keeping up with the latest trends in medicine. It was my research that saved me from expensive and unnecessary treatment several times.

[alienlovechild 75]

As far as VJ goes, all it does is give ignorant people a pass for throwing things out offhand.

Good thing you're not one of those fellows who do some online research and use quotes.

[one...two...tree 2,762]

As a personal note, when you are talking to a doctor, lawyer, or auto mechanic, do a little research before hand. Doctors, for example, are often wrong, as I have found out through experience. Part of it has to do with how little time the physician has to spend on individual patients, and part of it has to do with how little time the physician actually devotes to keeping up with the latest trends in medicine. It was my research that saved me from expensive and unnecessary treatment several times.

You'd have to give a specific example of what you are talking about. I recently had an ear infection and was given a Z-pac to clear it up, but had to return for a different medication when my condition wasn't improving. If you consider that being wrong, I think you're sadly mistaken. As for doctors being wildly wrong, the chance of you going in to see a doctor about pain in your left ear and that doctor telling you, you need your right leg amputated is next to nil. And even if by chance that would happen, most people have enough common sense to go out and get a second or third opinion. Also, the longer you remain with the same doctor, the doctor can better diagnose what is wrong when you seek his or her medical advice.

[Peikko 1,575]

You'd have to give a specific example of what you are talking about. I recently had an ear infection and was given a Z-pac to clear it up, but had to return for a different medication when my condition wasn't improving. If you consider that being wrong, I think you're sadly mistaken. As for doctors being wildly wrong, the chance of you going in to see a doctor about pain in your left ear and that doctor telling you, you need your right leg amputated is next to nil. And even if by chance that would happen, most people have enough common sense to go out and get a second or third opinion. Also, the longer you remain with the same doctor, the doctor can better diagnose what is wrong when you seek his or her medical advice.

I recently changed Dr's because I wanted a Dr who thought time spent with the patient and knowing a patients history was more important than through put of patients. I think it will work out well, and certainly the idea that one should know more about illness than the Dr is extraordinarily bizarre.

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

I recently changed Dr's because I wanted a Dr who thought time spent with the patient and knowing a patients history was more important than through put of patients. I think it will work out well, and certainly the idea that one should know more about illness than the Dr is extraordinarily bizarre.

Why? With access to the internet, one can certainly educate his or herself sufficiently to have an informed discussion with his or her doctor. The situation will get worse, not better, as medicine becomes more and more institutionalized. Fewer and fewer doctors can make decisions outside the diagnosis matrices they are required to follow. Those matrices tend to lag behind best practices by several years, as it takes that long for new treatments to became accepted as cost effective.

[Trumplestiltskin 5,791]

Why? With access to the internet, one can certainly educate his or herself sufficiently to have an informed discussion with his or her doctor. The situation will get worse, not better, as medicine becomes more and more institutionalized. Fewer and fewer doctors can make decisions outside the diagnosis matrices they are required to follow. Those matrices tend to lag behind best practices by several years, as it takes that long for new treatments to became accepted as cost effective.

You can get ideas certainly, but given that many conditions share similar symptoms the internet isn't going to give you a clear diagnosis.

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

You can get ideas certainly, but given that many conditions share similar symptoms the internet isn't going to give you a clear diagnosis.

That's why you need someone, like the doctor, that has some experience diagnosing problems. But, the patient needs to be an active participant in the discussion.

[Peikko 1,575]

I said the idea that you can educate yourself via the internet /books/whatnot to know more about illness than a Dr is bizarre, however Bill, by all means think you know better than someone who has studied the human body both theoretically and practically and self diagnose - I am sure those infomercials that encourage you to 'talk to your dr about x,y and z medication' work for you too

That is not to say one should be ignorant, but this obsession with laymen in pretending they have the depth of knowledge of experts is mindblowingly stupid.

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

I said the idea that you can educate yourself via the internet /books/whatnot to know more about illness than a Dr is bizarre, however Bill, by all means think you know better than someone who has studied the human body both theoretically and practically and self diagnose - I am sure those infomercials that encourage you to 'talk to your dr about x,y and z medication' work for you too

That is not to say one should be ignorant, but this obsession with laymen in pretending they have the depth of knowledge of experts is mindblowingly stupid.

Talk in superlatives much?

[Trumplestiltskin 5,791]

Patients need to understand their own symptoms in order to communicate them effectively and lead the doctor to accurate diagnosis. Doctor's get a lot of flak for this, but in fairness it isn't always the doctor's fault when something is missed.