Plan B: Skip College

[alienlovechild 75]

The idea that four years of higher education will translate into a better job, higher earnings and a happier life — a refrain sure to be repeated this month at graduation ceremonies across the country — has been pounded into the heads of schoolchildren, parents and educators. But there’s an underside to that conventional wisdom. Perhaps no more than half of those who began a four-year bachelor’s degree program in the fall of 2006 will get that degree within six years, according to the latest projections from the Department of Education. (The figures don’t include transfer students, who aren’t tracked.)

For college students who ranked among the bottom quarter of their high school classes, the numbers are even more stark: 80 percent will probably never get a bachelor’s degree or even a two-year associate’s degree.

That can be a lot of tuition to pay, without a degree to show for it.

Among those calling for such alternatives are the economists Richard K. Vedder of Ohio University and Robert I. Lerman of American University, the political scientist Charles Murray, and James E. Rosenbaum, an education professor at Northwestern. They would steer some students toward intensive, short-term vocational and career training, through expanded high school programs and corporate apprenticeships.

“It is true that we need more nanosurgeons than we did 10 to 15 years ago,” said Professor Vedder, founder of the Center for College Affordability and Productivity, a research nonprofit in Washington. “But the numbers are still relatively small compared to the numbers of nurses’ aides we’re going to need. We will need hundreds of thousands of them over the next decade.”

College degrees are simply not necessary for many jobs. Of the 30 jobs projected to grow at the fastest rate over the next decade in the United States, only seven typically require a bachelor’s degree, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Among the top 10 growing job categories, two require college degrees: accounting (a bachelor’s) and postsecondary teachers (a doctorate). But this growth is expected to be dwarfed by the need for registered nurses, home health aides, customer service representatives and store clerks. None of those jobs require a bachelor’s degree.

Professor Vedder likes to ask why 15 percent of mail carriers have bachelor’s degrees, according to a 1999 federal study.

“Some of them could have bought a house for what they spent on their education,” he said.

Professor Lerman, the American University economist, said some high school graduates would be better served by being taught how to behave and communicate in the workplace.

Such skills are ranked among the most desired — even ahead of educational attainment — in many surveys of employers. In one 2008 survey of more than 2,000 businesses in Washington State, employers said entry-level workers appeared to be most deficient in being able to “solve problems and make decisions,” “resolve conflict and negotiate,” “cooperate with others” and “listen actively.”

Yet despite the need, vocational programs, which might teach such skills, have been one casualty in the push for national education standards, which has been focused on preparing students for college.

While some educators propose a radical renovation of the community college system to teach work readiness, Professor Lerman advocates a significant national investment by government and employers in on-the-job apprenticeship training. He spoke with admiration, for example, about a program in the CVS pharmacy chain in which aspiring pharmacists’ assistants work as apprentices in hundreds of stores, with many going on to study to become full-fledged pharmacists themselves.

While no country has a perfect model for such programs, Professor Lerman pointed to a modest study of a German effort done last summer by an intern from that country. She found that of those who passed the Abitur, the exam that allows some Germans to attend college for almost no tuition, 40 percent chose to go into apprenticeships in trades, accounting, sales management, and computers.

Peggy Williams, a counselor at a high school in suburban New York City with a student body that is mostly black or Hispanic, understands the argument for erring on the side of pushing more students toward college.

But Ms. Williams said she would be more willing to counsel some students away from the precollege track if her school, Mount Vernon High School, had a better vocational education alternative. Over the last decade, she said, courses in culinary arts, nursing, dentistry and heating and ventilation system repair were eliminated. Perhaps 1 percent of this year’s graduates will complete a concentration in vocational courses, she said, compared with 40 percent a decade ago.

There is another rejoinder to the case against college: People with college and graduate degrees generally earn more than those without them, and face lower risks of unemployment, according to figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Even those who experience a few years of college earn more money, on average, with less risk of unemployment, than those who merely graduate from high school, said Morton Schapiro, an economist who is the president of Northwestern University.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/16/weekinreview/16steinberg.html

[Niels Bohr 72]

Wow! 80%? That sounds alot, what are the actual numbers? 80% of 100 students isn't much.

[Dr. Obvious 49]

Perhaps no more than half of those who began a four-year bachelor’s degree program in the fall of 2006 will get that degree within six years, according to the latest projections from the Department of Education. (The figures don’t include transfer students, who aren’t tracked.)...That can be a lot of tuition to pay, without a degree to show for it.

I think a lot of people have trouble figuring out what they even want to do or are good at. I think many believe either:

1) If I just show up in a classroom, the rest will take care of itself

or

2) I was told X was a good field to go into if I want to have $$$, but I never seriously thought about if it was for me. It won't matter when I am making good money, right?

The latter is amusing to me because right now, the hot thing is health careers. Not many of the students I see have any idea what they are getting themselves into. For example, people who would never dream of signing up for our Mortuary Science program because they don't want to see the dead, will tell me in the same breath that they want to become an EMT. LOL? I guess everyone involved in car accidents survives intact, eh? I've had people work their azzes off to get into the Nursing program drop out of clinicals because they didn't realize that they couldn't stand the sight of blood and surgery, angry patients, dying children. I mean, these people never put any thought at all into what actually went into working these jobs, they just heard it would be $$$ and/or job security.

The former is depressing. I will occasionally have transfer students with transcripts from 4 or more different institutions over the course of 10 years just begging me to graduate them from something, even if it is just General Studies. They've wasted too much time and money to have nothing to show for it and just want to be done. It usually goes that they either didn't know what they wanted to do or they found out that what they wanted to do wasn't for them, but it never occurred to them to stop and ask for advice on what to do next. Most colleges offer career advising, but students either don't know it exists or they don't think it would be worth it to utilize it. I think a lot of people are afraid of being told that what they are good at or what would best fit their interests will not make them a small fortune or is not, in their opinions, prestigious enough. Ignorance is bliss. Well, until it costs you several years of your life and $47k @ 8.5% interest (so far).

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For college students who ranked among the bottom quarter of their high school classes, the numbers are even more stark: 80 percent will probably never get a bachelor’s degree or even a two-year associate’s degree.

For the students who need remediation, the statistics are horrifying. Most of them will not even make it out of remedial courses into college level course work, let alone get a 4 year degree. For example:

Individual states, and the nation as a whole, are not only paying to academically remediate thousands of young adults, but they are also facing future financial loss because students who need remediation are more likely to leave college without a degree, becoming more likely to earn less than if they had gotten a college diploma. Research shows that the leading predictor that a student will drop out of college is the need for remedial reading. While 58 percent of students who take no remedial education courses earn a Bachelor’s degree within eight years, only 17 percent of students who enroll in a remedial reading course receive a BA or BS within the same time period (NCES, 2004a).

http://www.all4ed.org/files/remediation.pdf

Students who require remediation have significant hurdles to overcome to successfully meet their goals such as enhancing job skills, completing a program, or transferring to a four-year college. At one college only 11 percent of those who started at the lowest-level math course progressed successfully through a transfer-level sequence (Johnstone, 2004). In English the rate was lower still: Only nine percent of students starting in the lowest-level course completed the sequence through transfer-level coursework. These numbers are likely typical among California’s community colleges.

http://www.calpass.org/CurrentReports/LeveragingCAStandardsTest.pdf

[Niels Bohr 72]

Become an Engineer, they're versatile creatures.

[justashooter 430]

Become an Engineer, they're linear thinkers.

[Martyshk 137]

When I started school in 2001 our class (just my major) was close to 150 people.

16 Graduated.

[alienlovechild 75]

They've wasted too much time and money to have nothing to show for it and just want to be done. It usually goes that they either didn't know what they wanted to do or they found out that what they wanted to do wasn't for them, but it never occurred to them to stop and ask for advice on what to do next. Most colleges offer career advising, but students either don't know it exists or they don't think it would be worth it to utilize it. I think a lot of people are afraid of being told that what they are good at or what would best fit their interests will not make them a small fortune or is not, in their opinions, prestigious enough. Ignorance is bliss. Well, until it costs you several years of your life and $47k @ 8.5% interest (so far).

What I don't get is today's students have access to nearly unlimited information on any career imaginable and have had it since the mid-1990s via the Internet. If I'd had that kind of info growing up, I'm sure I would made better decisions on a lot of things. Ok, I'm jealous but hopefully my kid will learn from mistakes.

I remember having to read the Bureau of Labor's book on career outlooks and description in a library to get some idea of what was out there. My parents were in education so we didn't get much input outside of school.

[one...two...tree 2,762]

They would steer some students toward intensive, short-term vocational and career training, through expanded high school programs and corporate apprenticeships.

I agree with that idea, especially for young adults who have no idea what they want to do for a living. But I would emphasize to these kinds of students that they can pursue a college degree later on when they have a clearer idea of what kind of career path they want to take. When I graduated from high school I had no idea what kind of career I'd want to have and I was in my late 20's before I had a more concrete idea of what career path I wanted to take.

My wife works with a young woman in her mid twenties who is an RDA (registered dental assistant). She attended a trade school and now after a few years of working as a dental assistant, she's going through a Dental Hygienist program. I think it would be hard for many high school graduates to be that specific about what it is they want to do without having some real world experience. I think military service is also a good way to achieve that.

Edited May 20, 2010 by El Buscador

[Gary and Alla 3,694]

The huge majority of dependent welfare recipients have no high school education. High school graduates have a hugely lower incidence of receiving welfare. How many welfare recipients have a bachelors degree?

This country should fund the education of its citizens and LEGAL residents through four years of college and require, through punitive tax provisions, the completion of high school (at a minimum) of all persons. Education is not a bad thing...ever. They can do this to get states to raise the drinking age or to implement seat belt laws...but not to require education. Bizarre indeed.