WSJ Op-Ed: Israel may be headed for the greatest military humiliation in its history

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

BY BRET STEPHENS

Israel is losing this war.

This is not to say that it will lose the war, or that the war was unwinnable to start with. But if it keeps going as it is, Israel is headed for the greatest military humiliation in its history. During the Yom Kippur War of 1973, Israelis were stunned by their early reversals against Egypt and Syria, yet they eked out a victory over these two powerfully armed, Soviet-backed adversaries in 20 days. The conflict with Hezbollah--a 15,000-man militia chiefly armed with World War II-era Katyusha rockets--is now in its 21st day. So far, Israel has nothing to show for its efforts: no enemy territory gained, no enemy leaders killed, no abatement in the missile barrage that has sent a million Israelis from their homes and workplaces.

Generally speaking, wars are lost either militarily or politically. Israel is losing both ways. Two weeks ago, Israeli officials boasted they had destroyed 50% of Hezbollah's military capabilities and needed just 10 to 14 days to finish the job. Two days ago, after a record 140 Katyushas landed on Israel, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert told visiting Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice he needed another 10 to 14 days. When the war began, Israeli officials spoke of "breaking" Hezbollah; next of evicting Hezbollah from the border area; then of "degrading" Hezbollah's capabilities; now of establishing an effective multinational force that can police the border. Israel's goals are becoming less ambitious while the time it needs to accomplish them is growing longer.

It is amazing how much can be squandered in the space of three weeks. On July 12, Israel sat behind an internationally recognized frontier, where it enjoyed a preponderance of military force. It had deterrence and legitimacy. Hezbollah's cross-border raid that day was widely condemned within Lebanon and among Arab leaders as heedless and provocative. Mr. Olmert's decision to respond with massive force enjoyed left-to-right political support. He also had a green light from the Bush administration, which has reasons of its own to want Hezbollah defanged and which assumed the Israelis were up to the job.

But it seems they are not up to the job. The war began with a string of intelligence failures: Israel had lowered its alert level on the northern border prior to the raid; it did not know that Hezbollah possessed Chinese-made antiship missiles, one of which nearly sank an Israeli missile boat off the coast of Beirut; it was caught off guard by the fierce resistance it encountered in the two Lebanese villages it has so far attempted to capture. Such failures are surprising and discouraging, given that Israel has been tracking and fighting Hezbollah for nearly a quarter-century.

Harder to understand is a military and political strategy that mistakenly assumes that Israel can take its time against Hezbollah. It cannot. Israel does not supply itself with precision-guided bombs; it does not provide its own cover at the U.N. Security Council; it does not have 130,000 troops at risk in Iraq of an uprising by Moqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army. It should be immensely worrying to Israel's leaders that Iraq's Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani is calling for an immediate cease-fire. Ayatollah Sistani--unlike, say, Kofi Annan--is the sort of man who can get George W. Bush's ear.

Israelis have compounded that mistake with an airpower-based strategy that, whatever its virtues in keeping Israeli troops out of harm's way, was never going to evict Hezbollah from southern Lebanon, just as airpower alone did not evict Saddam from Kuwait in 1991.

[...]

Timelines are colliding here; agendas may follow. Israel has a prime minister who talks tough. What remains to be seen is whether he can act fast.

Mr. Stephens is a member of The Wall Street Journal's editorial board. His column appears in the Journal Tuesdays.

http://www.opinionjournal.com/wsj/?id=110008733

[Trumplestiltskin 5,791]

Its certainly true that Israel have put themselves in a position of having done exactly what Hezbollah (and its backers) wanted them to do.

[Nikita2Charles 32]

Like the opinion said, They are hiding a flow in their defense systems, Nobody will know what really happened? How did those soldiers got kidnapped, the news is wrigged, Those soldiers were taken in Confrontation with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, to the media they say Hezbollah came into Israel to kidnapped them.

Hmmm i thought that would scare them, can you imagine if those terrorist can come in and Kidnapped israeli solidiers if you beleive their story

That would be a major security threat for the states of Israel, How many terrrorist would be able to infiltrate and do serious damage.

[Ric Flair 0]

Woooooo!

*chops Israel, points at Hezbollah in the crowd and tells them to shut up*

Woooooo!

[mawilson 2,133]

The only way for Israel to defeat Hezbollah is to hit them with everything they've got and

kill 'em all. Every single one of them. If there are any civilians left in Southern Lebanon,

make them leave NOW. Anyone who chooses to stay is fair game.

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

The only way for Israel to defeat Hezbollah is to hit them with everything they've got and

kill 'em all. Every single one of them. If there are any civilians left in Southern Lebanon,

make them leave NOW. Anyone who chooses to stay is fair game.

A question for those who are into military history.

Has a conventional military force beaten a well-armed and well-organized guerilla group anywhere, in recent history? If so, how?

[Trumplestiltskin 5,791]

The only way for Israel to defeat Hezbollah is to hit them with everything they've got and

kill 'em all. Every single one of them. If there are any civilians left in Southern Lebanon,

make them leave NOW. Anyone who chooses to stay is fair game.

The terrorists don't much care for the civilians, in fact the deaths only add to the resentment that fuels their cause. As I said, I think Israel has been manipulated into this position and has taken the bait that could lead to a wider crisis in the region.

Edited August 1, 2006 by erekose

[Nikita2Charles 32]

They should Nuke southern Lebanon!

Then you'll see what happen, Everybody is fighting about Iran trying to get Nuclear technology but Israel already possess Nuke, no wonder why it's so dangerous to have so many madman around

[PSoft 0]

They should Nuke southern Lebanon!

Then you'll see what happen, Everybody is fighting about Iran trying to get Nuclear technology but Israel already possess Nuke, no wonder why it's so dangerous to have so many madman around

Do u think it is easy to use nuke weapons in a war? It wouldn't be great if Pakistan Nuke India

[Trumplestiltskin 5,791]

Makes you wonder if Jerusalem would be the safest city on the planet when it comes to a nuclear threat - the fundamentalists probably wouldn't be too keen to blow up their holiest sites outside of Mecca.

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

Makes you wonder if Jerusalem would be the safest city on the planet when it comes to a nuclear threat - the fundamentalists probably wouldn't be too keen to blow up their holiest sites outside of Mecca.

Or you could stay out of cities altogether and learn to love the American 'exurb'

[Nikita2Charles 32]

You find madman on both side Jews and Arabs.

Only when they can learn to live side by side with each other will all the fight stop, What difference does it make if it's a Nuke, Nobody is complaning about the Genocide being commited toward the Lebanese people, at least it would be all out in the open with the mushroom cloud. World war 3 sizzling up?

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

World war 3 sizzling up?

I know it's fashionable to say that these days, but I doubt it. The US, Europe, Russia and China all have a dog in this fight but I predict if push comes to shove, each one of the big dogs (even the US vis a vis Israel) will stand back and let the small dogs fight this one out. And you can't have WW3 without some of the big dogs.

Edited August 1, 2006 by Gupt

[Mirorgate 0]

Like the opinion said, They are hiding a flow in their defense systems, Nobody will know what really happened? How did those soldiers got kidnapped, the news is wrigged, Those soldiers were taken in Confrontation with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, to the media they say Hezbollah came into Israel to kidnapped them.

Hmmm i thought that would scare them, can you imagine if those terrorist can come in and Kidnapped israeli solidiers if you beleive their story

That would be a major security threat for the states of Israel, How many terrrorist would be able to infiltrate and do serious damage.

you seem to be under the false idea that Hezbollah are bloodless and everything is Israels fault.

You find madman on both side Jews and Arabs.

Only when they can learn to live side by side with each other will all the fight stop, What difference does it make if it's a Nuke, Nobody is complaning about the Genocide being commited toward the Lebanese people, at least it would be all out in the open with the mushroom cloud. World war 3 sizzling up?

Genocide.... thats like the 2nd or 3rd time you've tossed that around to make your argument, but I have yet to see your proof.

[MandR 0]

Edited August 1, 2006 by MandR