Sarah Palin-Barack Obama gap melts to 1 point

[Sofiyya 1,687]

LA Times online. December 8, 2009 | 2:42 am

Lordy, Lordy, Lordy, look what the pollsters just brought in.

A pair of new surveys revealing that President Obama is still declining and has hit a new low in job approval among Americans just 56 weeks after they elected him with a decided margin.

And -- wait for it -- Republican Sarah Palin is successfully selling a whole lot more than books out there on the road. Even among those not lining up in 10-degree weather to catch a glimpse of pretty much the only political celebrity the GOP has these days.

First, el jefe. Facing double-digit unemployment, rising spending, deficits and Afghan war casualties plus a keystone but stalled healthcare reform effort that caused a rare Sunday presidential visit to Capitol Hill, Obama recently fell below 50% job approval for the first time.

Then, last week's deft dance of rhetoric over sending reinforcements to Afghanistan but, on the other foot, bringing them home quickly maybe gave him a brief boost. That, however, collapsed with equal rapidity.

Obama's new Gallup Poll job approval number is 47%. Last month it was 53%.

Regular Ticket readers will recall how in this space in late November we pointed out that Obama's closely watched job approval slide was coinciding with Palin's little-noticed rise in favorability. And it appeared they might cross somewhere in the 40s.

Well, ex-Sen. Obama, meet ex-Gov. Palin.

The new CNN/Opinion Research Poll shows Palin now at 46% favorable, just one point below her fellow basketball fan.

(The same poll, btw, has bad news for ####### Cheney-haters; the outspoken former VP has climbed out of the 29% basement, back up to 39% now. How do you suppose he's done that without a new book? But that's another story.)

Not that either Palin or Obama will admit caring about such trivial things as disparate political polls....

...1,071 days before the 2012 election, when Republicans will have the concept of change on their side. Obama's camp is already using the looming Palin pall as a fundraising tool. Never let any potential threat go unmonetized.

The new numbers seem to indicate that despite oft-cited predictions about the dire impact of Palin resigning her Alaska governor's job in July, a lot of people who don't live in Alaska (and, come to think of it, most people don't live in Alaska) don't seem to care. She wasn't their governor then and she still isn't.

Palin's low favorable poll point of 39% came right after the midsummer resignation and she's been slowly climbing since, fueled by media attention, eager reader response over her book contents, her tour and the spontaneous outpouring of support at her carefully-calculated bus stops along the way -- 31 appearances in 25 states, many of them politically crucial.

Imagine what critics would be saying now if Palin was neglecting her elected Juneau job to sell books in the Lower 48 and talk to an elite club of Washington journalists, if there is such a thing.

The view, Palin told the capital's Gridiron Club Saturday night in her self-deprecating and at times pointed remarks (full text right here), is a whole lot better from inside the bus than from under it.

Palin critics -- and, by golly, there still are some, believe it or not -- say that she's a polarizing political figure.

And they're dead-on correct: 46% like her (including eight of 10 Republicans), 46% don't (including seven of 10 Democrats) and only 8% are undecided (no doubt including many who've been living underground since John McCain unveiled his VP GOP running mate in Dayton, Ohio, some15 months ago).

But here's the fascinating, little-noticed catch:

The very same polarization now holds true for Obama, the fresh fellow from the old Chicago Democratic machine who was supposed to bring hope and change to a nation tired of divisive politics and the harsh partisan tone of Washington.

Fully 83% of Democrats approve of him, but only 14% of Republicans do.

Among independents, who provided the crucial winning boost for the Democratic ticket in November 2008, Obama's support has melted to 42% today, in large part over immense spending and deficit concerns.

And as political veteran Dave Cook points out over on the Vote blog, just since last month, 3% of Obama's own Democrats have abandoned his ship, another 4% of Republicans and fully 7% of independents.

Other recent polls have shown Republicans leading for the first time this year on the generic congressional ballot and self-identified Republicans closing the gap with self-identified Democrats.

Meanwhile, Palin continued her book/celebrity sales tour across the heartland, stopping Sunday in -- oh, look! -- Iowa. "No politician comes to Iowa by accident," Republican strategist Tim Albrecht told AP's Mike Glover.

More significantly, Palin was in western Iowa, which is ruled by the Republican Party, which in the Hawkeye state these days is ruled by conservative evangelicals, who form a large chunk of Palin's evolving base. As another ex-governor, Mitt Romney, learned to his dismay in the 2008 GOP caucuses won by another ex-governor (and Baptist preacher), Mike Huckabee.

Obviously, not every politician visiting Iowa each election cycle ends up running for president. And not every Iowa winner collects the big prize. But no one gets to the White House without going to Iowa. Which Palin has now done on her own. Purportedly selling a book.

-- Andrew Malcolm

[Pooky 3,782]

So, the woman the Dimocrats ridicule as a bimbo, inept and completely unsuited to the position of POTUS is regarded by the American public at large as being on a par with the incumbent POTUS.

I really don't know what to make of that, either for the American public at large, or the Dimocrats. Whatever it is, it doesn't look particularly good, does it?

[웃 910]

It was obvious Ubama was going to win 2008. It is even more obvious he will lose in 2012.

[spookyturtle 9,465]

Maybe you'll all be happy with Palin as President. But then again, you won't have anything to b!tch about, so what will you do? Decisions, decisions......

[웃 910]

Maybe you'll all be happy with Palin as President. But then again, you won't have anything to b!tch about, so what will you do? Decisions, decisions......

I'm not a big fan of Palin but she is really easy on the eyes. Not so much on the ears but I can deal with her. Much better than Ubama.

But if I had to predict I say Romney (obviously) and I think he will pick Condaleeza Rice as VP...

[Niels Bohr 72]

I think the right has it all wrong. The Messiah is referring to something in religious context, whereas, most liberals generally don't care about messiahs in religions.

Hey what about this,

[Pooky 3,782]

Maybe you'll all be happy with Palin as President. But then again, you won't have anything to b!tch about, so what will you do? Decisions, decisions......

Who, me? I wouldn't vote for Palin, just as I would never have voted for McCain, or Obama, had I been eligible at the time. Romney was the only candidate to make sense, given the issues the country faced. But the Republican'ts chased the Iraq red herring, while the Dimocrats went for the anti-George Bush.

What galls me is the dearth of outstandig candidates that each party offers the electorate. It's so tough to choose the lesser of two poor candidates.

[Danno 1,228]

Now if Palin could pick up the "Middle" as fast as Obama is shedding them she might have a prayer.

As it is, I am betting (at this point) she will be VP material again.

.. which is not a bad gig... unless you are old our current VP..... but I guess even then, not bad.

[HAL 9000 96]

Palin 2012 FTW!

[Mrs.J06 4]

Why would we even compare Obama and Palin?

He's the President of the United States, for heaven's sake...

And yes, people who make (tough) decisions are prone to piss some people off, so what?

[peejay 327]

Why would we even compare Obama and Palin?

He's the President of the United States, for heaven's sake...

And yes, people who make (tough) decisions are prone to piss some people off, so what?

Unfortunately he seems to be pissing off the people that actually voted for him. So who's gonna vote for him in 2012? Certainly not the people that voted against him in 2008.

As I predicted in 2008...people voted against the Republicans in 2008 rather than for Obama. These very people (unaffiliated independents) are now having big time buyer's remorse. The grass isn't much greener on the other side of the fence...is it?

[HAL 9000 96]

I don't see it that simplistically. When the economy is in the pits even a President's fans will be in the pits too. One should not expect a complex economy to rebound overnight. Swallowing the Messianic diatribe some opponents were chanting certainly has caused indigestion throughout.

Any 2012 Republican contender's worst nightmare would be to see the gradual shift in the economy from the current, albeit decreasing Red, to a steadier Black by campaign season 2012. And guess what? There's nowhere else to go but in that direction right now, and that is precisely where things are moving. Perhaps not fast enough, sure. As I've said it to the sour gripers, one man does not constitute the entire US Government.

[nowhereman 1]

Poll numbers mean absolutely nothing at this point. Check out Bush's numbers shortly after 9/11... as I recall they were around 80% approval ratings. However in the last 2 years or so of his 2nd term the numbers broke records for all-time lows... 28-30% approval ratings. The American public is very fickle & poll numbers can change drastically in a couple of years (or even months/weeks).

I have said this 100 times & I will say it 101 times... America is very polarized at the moment & no matter what a President does right off the bat 40-50% disagree with his decisions. If McCain had won it would be the same scenario... heck if George Washington was President it would be the same.

Wake me up in 2011 & tell me what Obama's approval ratings are then... until then it doesn't matter.

Edited December 9, 2009 by nowhereman

[peejay 327]

I don't see it that simplistically. When the economy is in the pits even a President's fans will be in the pits too. One should not expect a complex economy to rebound overnight. Swallowing the Messianic diatribe some opponents were chanting certainly has caused indigestion throughout.

Any 2012 Republican contender's worst nightmare would be to see the gradual shift in the economy from the current, albeit decreasing Red, to a steadier Black by campaign season 2012. And guess what? There's nowhere else to go but in that direction right now, and that is precisely where things are moving. Perhaps not fast enough, sure. As I've said it to the sour gripers, one man does not constitute the entire US Government.

If you want to use that same train of logic...

#1) Obama did not win the 2008 election by anything near a landslide.

#2) The financial crisis and stock market crash came to a head right before the election.

So who knows what might have happened if this occurred after rather than before the election? To suggest that Obama and the Democrats have a clear concrete mandate from a broad spectrum of America is absurd. They won the 2008 election for sure, but this a far cry from any notion that America has suddenly transformed into a left leaning liberal country starving for European style socialism. A huge chunk of the American electorate remains being unaffiliated independent voters and the country as a whole remains center right oriented. Far more Americans consider themselves conservative rather than liberal. Whether Obama and the far left spectrum of the Democratic party can govern without showing their true colors will determine whether they retain majorities in either house of congress in 2010 or the Whitehouse in 2012.

As an unaffiliated independent voter I prefer to see the House, Senate, and Whitehouse not be controlled by one party. It breeds arrogance and corruption no matter which party is in power.

[Niels Bohr 72]

I thought the House, Senate, and Whitehouse was controlled with the prior Presidency?